NFL Trade Deadline Odds: Who’s Most Likely to Be Traded? Kalshi Market Predictions

• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers has 79% odds to be traded before Tuesday’s NFL deadline
• Titans RB Tony Pollard priced at 70% as Tennessee continues fire sale
• Full NFL trade deadline odds, predictions and best bets for November 4 cutoff

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Tuesday’s 4 PM ET cutoff marks the final chance for NFL teams to make roster moves before March. With just hours remaining, front offices are scrambling to complete deals.

Kalshi’s NFL trade deadline market reveals which players have the highest probability of changing uniforms. Philadelphia has led the charge with three defensive additions: cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Michael Carter II, plus edge rusher Jaelan Phillips from Miami.

Here’s a complete look at the NFL trade deadline odds, insider reports on the top trade candidates, and where the betting value sits heading into Tuesday.

NFL Trade Deadline Odds

Odds as of November 3 (10 pm ET) at Kalshi. Sign up to trade on the NFL with the Kalshi promo code.

Top Trade Candidates

Jakobi Meyers (79%)

Meyers asked for a trade back in August after the Raiders wouldn’t give him an extension. He’s playing out the final year of his contract on a 2-6 team that’s selling off pieces.

The Steelers and Bills have reportedly both shown interest. Meyers has caught 29 passes for 329 yards this season. When asked if he still wanted out, he told reporters “oh, for sure.”

Vegas set a high asking price early on, but losing six of eight games changes things. Getting a mid-round pick now beats getting nothing when he leaves in free agency. The market has this one right at 79%.

Tony Pollard (70%)

The Titans are reportedly fielding calls on Pollard as they trim their roster. Several contenders, including the Texans, Chiefs, and Patriots, need help at running back.

Pollard is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Unlike most rental backs, he’s signed through 2027, which makes him more valuable in a trade.

Tennessee fired coach Brian Callahan and is reportedly open to moving everyone except QB Cam Ward and DT Jeffery Simmons. At 70%, the market sees this as very likely.

Nick Chubb (56%)

The Chubb situation in Houston isn’t really working. The 30-year-old has just 321 yards on 80 carries (4.0 yards per attempt) through seven games. He’s splitting carries almost evenly with rookie Woody Marks.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano confirmed Houston “needs help because it doesn’t look like Joe Mixon will be back this season, and Nick Chubb doesn’t offer the explosiveness he once did.” That’s brutal but honest.

Mock trade scenarios have the Patriots acquiring Chubb for just a fifth-round pick. New England needs help with Rhamondre Stevenson dealing with injuries. The Texans are 6-2 but need more explosive backfield help, and Chubb needs a fresh start. At 56%, the market thinks this happens.

Trey Hendrickson (48%)

The Bengals want a first-round pick for their pass rusher, according to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini. That’s a lot to give up for a 31-year-old on an expiring contract.

Hendrickson has four sacks this year after posting 17.5 in each of the last two seasons. Teams like the Cowboys, 49ers, and Lions have reportedly called about him.

League sources say the Bengals are still asking for a first-round pick in any deal for Trey Hendrickson at this time.

The trade deadline arrives in just over 28 hours, and teams are continuing to call Cincinnati about a number of their players. For now, prices remain high. pic.twitter.com/OUS5UpeH3s

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) November 3, 2025

The problem is Cincinnati is 3-6 but still thinks they can make the playoffs. Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer reported the Bengals stopped saying “no” automatically, but their asking price hasn’t budged.

A team would have to be desperate to give up a first-rounder for a rental. At 48%, the odds are basically a coin flip.

Jermaine Johnson (44%)

The Eagles reportedly inquired about Johnson, which checks out considering former Jets GM Joe Douglas now works in Philadelphia. But the Jets want a second-round pick or better, and Philly grabbed Jaelan Phillips instead.

Johnson himself posted “I’m not leavin'” on social media and told ESPN’s Rich Cimini the Jets gave him “clarity and communication” he won’t be traded. He’s battling back from an Achilles tear that cost him most of 2024.

pic.twitter.com/JGbe6HLSCA

— Jermaine Johnson II (@ii_jermaine) October 22, 2025

The Cowboys have also kicked tires on him. But with Johnson wanting to stay and the Jets standing firm on their price, the 44% odds seem high.

Calvin Ridley (14%)

Ridley is drawing interest from playoff teams, according to reports. The 30-year-old has 16 catches for 290 yards and a touchdown in six games.

The Titans are actively trying to trade him, per Pro Football Talk. He signed a four-year, $92 million deal last year, but Tennessee is clearly rebuilding now.

At 14%, the market is underpricing this one. The Titans want to sell, Ridley can still play, and teams need receivers. This feels closer to 30-40%.

Players Predicted Not to be Traded

Jaylen Waddle (21%)

ESPN’s Adam Schefter said it’s “highly unlikely” the Dolphins trade Waddle, even though teams have called. Miami fired GM Chris Grier on Friday, and interim GM Champ Kelly is handling deadline decisions now.

Dolphins are willing to listen to offers on any of their players ahead of Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline, but it is — in the words of one well-placed source — “highly unlikely” that Miami will trade WR Jaylen Waddle.https://t.co/yfcl6LSS09

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 2, 2025

The Dolphins want a first-round pick plus more for their top receiver. He’s on a three-year, $84.5 million extension that starts next year.

Miami has been willing to trade guys like Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Matthew Judon. But Waddle is different. The 21% odds are probably too high.

Quinnen Williams (30%)

The Jets’ asking price for Williams is “massive,” according to reports. He’s locked up through 2027 on a four-year, $96 million extension he signed in 2023.

Williams is the Jets’ best defensive player at 27 years old. Trading him would mean the organization is completely blowing things up beyond their 1-7 record.

The Cowboys have been mentioned as potential suitors. But moving an All-Pro defensive tackle with three years left would take a massive haul. The 30% is probably about right, maybe even high.

Bradley Chubb (30%)

The Dolphins are officially sellers after firing GM Chris Grier and trading Jaelan Phillips. Now they’re reportedly fielding calls on Chubb, their two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher.

The Cowboys have “spoken to the Dolphins about OLB Bradley Chubb,” according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz. Dallas desperately needs pass rush help and has been hunting for edge rushers all week.

Chubb has four sacks in nine games this season. He’s on a team-friendly deal with just $1.25 million in base salary, but Miami would take a $23.858 million dead-money charge if they trade him. At 2-7, they might eat that cap hit for draft capital. The 30% probability seems fair.

Maxx Crosby (37%)

The Raiders recently met with Crosby to tell him he’s not being shopped. He’s under contract through 2027 and doesn’t want to leave anyway.

“I have a special connection with the fanbase. They’ve been through it, just like I’ve been through it. I know everyone puts their time & effort, spends their hard earned money. I’ll continue to give it everything I’ve got until I can’t anymore.”

Raiders captain Maxx Crosby… pic.twitter.com/xuWc3XJYZY

— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) November 3, 2025

Jerry Jones reportedly called about Crosby, and the Raiders shut it down immediately. Other teams have also asked, but Vegas considers him off-limits.

At 26 years old, Crosby is the face of the franchise. The only way he moves is if he asks out himself, and there’s no sign of that happening. The 37% feels too high given the team’s public stance.

Breece Hall (10%)

ESPN’s Rich Cimini stated that the Jets don’t plan to trade Hall, despite receiving calls. New York wants at least a third-round pick for him.

Hall is in a contract year and hasn’t gotten an extension, while teammates Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson got paid. But the Jets keep saying they want to keep him.

Teams like the Chargers and Chiefs have reportedly shown interest. The 10% probability is low, but it matches what beat writers are hearing from the Jets.

NFL Trade Deadline Best Bet

If you’re betting this market, focus on contract situations and which teams are actually rebuilding.

Jakobi Meyers at 79% is the safest play. He asked for a trade; he’s on an expiring deal, and the Raiders are rebuilding. The Steelers and Bills both need receiver help, and Vegas should be motivated to get something rather than nothing.

REPORT:

Per Ian Rapoport there are THREE names to look out for at tomorrow's trade deadline for the Pittsburgh #Steelers:

– Jakobi Meyers

– Rasheed Shaheed

– Jaylen Waddle pic.twitter.com/8mGN15WoIM

— Steelers Draft HQ (@SteelersDraftt) November 3, 2025

Calvin Ridley at 14% still looks like good value. The Titans are actively shopping him, he’s still productive, and teams need receivers. That number should be higher.

On the flip side, Maxx Crosby at 37% seems too high. The Raiders have publicly said he’s not available, and he doesn’t want to leave. Jermaine Johnson at 44% also feels generous given he’s publicly said he’s staying, and the Jets stood firm on their asking price.

The deadline closes Tuesday at 4 PM ET. Expect 5-10 more deals to happen, with most coming in the final hours.

Best Bet: Calvin Ridley to be traded (+614)