Expert Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay for Game 5 (+176 Odds)

• I’ve cooked up a +176 Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay for Game 5 of the Western Conference Final tonight
• Jason Robertson has created more scoring chances than any other Dallas player this series
• Keep reading for my expert Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay picks and analysis

One of my rules for betting playoff hockey is that you can’t fake desperation. Teams have a much different mentality down 3-1 in the NHL playoff bracket as opposed to being up 3-1, and it’s extremely hard for the team that’s ahead to match the intensity of the trailing squad.

I’m leaning on a desperate Dallas team tonight with their season on line against Edmonton. My expert Oilers vs Stars same-game parlay starts with Dallas defending home ice, something they’ve done exceptionally well this postseason.

Expert Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay

The second leg of my EDM/DAL SGP is banking on over 2.5 goals for the Stars. Despite trailing the series, Dallas has actually posted better advanced stats. We’ll round out the parlay with 1+ points for Jason Robertson, who’s created more scoring chances than any other Stars player.

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Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Dallas Stars Moneyline

Dallas was the significantly more desperate team in the early stages of Game 4, but took their foot off the gas. They produced 16 shots on goal and 39 shot attempts in the opening frame, but failed to match those totals over the following two periods combined.

I’m betting they won’t let up tonight, and that Stuart Skinner regresses – more on that in a minute. The Stars have been phenomenal on home ice this postseason, winning seven of nine contests. They’ve outscored the opposition by 11 goals, and were actually better statistically than Edmonton in the Oilers 3-0 win in Dallas in Game 2.

The Stars produced more expected goals in that contest and held a 55% to 45% puck possession advantage. They generated six more scoring chances but couldn’t capitalize on any of their 11 high-danger opportunities.

Another reason to like Dallas is that they’ve been incredibly efficient with the man advantage in their own barn these playoffs, scoring on 42% of their powerplay opportunities.

EDM vs DAL SGP Pick #2: Dallas Stars Over 2.5 Goals

Those powerplay numbers are key, because it’s not hard to envision the Stars having a few more calls go their way. The more desperate team typically carries the play in these types of games, and the more the Stars possess the puck the more likely they are to draw penalties.

EDM vs DAL Series Stats – All Strengths

As for Skinner, I believe we’ll see some serious regression tonight. He’s allowed 1 goal or less in five of his past six starts, and that’s not who this guy is. Prior to Game 5 of the second round, he’d surrendered 4+ goals in each of his previous three playoff starts. He failed to record a save percentage above .833, and was pulled on multiple occasions.

Over the course of the regular season, he posted a sub .900 save percentage and was beaten 11 times by the Stars in three starts. Skinner has stopped 93% of the Stars high dangers chances this series, which is a 15% increase from the regular season. Water finds its level tonight, and Skinner is on the hook for 3+ goals against.

Oilers vs Stars Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Jason Robertson 1+ Points

If the Stars are going to get back into this series and remain a Stanley Cup odds contender, they’ll need Jason Robertson to continue his excellent play. Robertson leads the team in shot attempts and scoring chances versus Edmonton, while ranking second in expected goals.

Jason Robertson Playoff Stats vs Oilers

The 25-year-old has notched a point in three of four games this series, after leading the team in goals during the regular season. He’s fired 9 shots on goal over the last two games alone, and is a primary option on the number one powerplay unit.