Finland vs Sweden 4 Nations Prediction, Odds & Prop Picks (Feb. 15)

• Sweden is a -198 moneyline favorite over Finland in 4 Nations Face-Off round-robin play on Saturday
• Finland allowed six goals in a blowout loss to the Americans in their opener
• See the Finland vs Sweden 4 Nations Prediction, odds and prop picks, below

It’s not Canada vs USA, but the Finland vs Sweden rivalry is just as big to anyone who’s lived it. The two Nordic countries will meet Saturday in round-robin play at the 4 Nations Face-off, in what’s basically a must-win game for each side.

Puck drop is scheduled for 1 pm ET at the Bell Centre, in Montreal, QC. ABC and ESPN+ will provide coverage in America, and Sportsnet will handle the Canadian broadcasting duties.

Here is a look at the 4 Nations odds, as well as our Finland vs Sweden prediction.

Finland vs Sweden Odds

Sweden is currently a -198 moneyline favorite, after opening at -140. Finland comes back as a +164 underdog, and the total is set at 5.5. The Swedes were clipped 4-3 by Canada in the tournament opener, while the Finns were routed 6-1 by the USA on Thursday.

Each nation is only guaranteed three games before the final, and a second loss will almost certainly eliminate you from championship contention.

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Finland vs Sweden Prediction

• Sweden -1.5 (+140) at Caesars

Finland entered the tournament with the longest odds to win it all, and it showed in their debut. They were able to withstand an American barrage for 40 minutes, but the wheels fell off in the third period. Team USA struck four times in the final frame, including 11 seconds apart in the opening minute.

They peppered Finnish netminder Juuse Saros with 32 shots, and took advantage of a depleted defensive corps. Finland is missing Miro Heiskanen, Jani Hakanpaa and Rasmus Ristolainen on the back end. The loss of Heiskanen is especially painful, as he’s one of the NHL’s elite d-men and a Norris Trophy odds longshot contender.

He runs the powerplay, anchors the penalty kill, and logs heavy 5-on-5 minutes. Without him, the Finns are vulnerable in their own end, and that’s before we get to the underwhelming goaltending situation.

Saros ranks outside the top-33 in the NHL in goals against and save percentage. His backups Kevin Lankinen and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are both outside the top-20 in save percentage, and don’t inspire much confidence either. After speculation Saros could sit in favor of one of his backups on Saturday, Finland has officially confirmed Lankinen as their starter.

Up front, Finland lacks a bonafide star. Aleksander Barkov is the best talent, but his production in Florida is not what it was in his prime. The team boasts just two skaters ranked inside the top-50 in 5-on-5 scoring, and they mustered only 21 shots versus the Americans.

Sweden on the other hand, showed a ton of grit in their OT defeat. They twice battled back from two-goal deficits, and gave the Canadians all they could handle. The Swedes’ top-six forwards are dangerous, while their defense corps is arguably the best in the tournament.

Sweden posted a higher Corsi For percentage (63.89) and expected goal percentage (62.25) than Canada over the final two periods of the opener. Victor Hedman and the defense combined for four points, while only four players posted a CF% below 50.

Sweden scored 3+ goals versus Canada in an NHL International event for the first-time since 1987, and we can expect them to reach that mark again versus their Nordic rival.

Finland vs Sweden Player Props

4 Nations Face-off player props from DraftKings Sportsbook on Feb 14.

• William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer (+210) at DraftKings

Sweden’s top sniper William Nylander was held scoreless versus Canada, but it was not due to a lack of opportunity. Nylander played a team-high 20:30, generating Sweden’s most individual shot attempts (9). He also had the highest expected goals percentage of anyone on his team, and positive regression is coming on Saturday.

Nylander ranks second in the NHL with 33 goals. He headlines the number one powerplay unit, which is big versus Finland. The Finns took four minor penalties versus the Americans, resulting in two powerplay goals. They’ll be on their heels again versus Sweden, and Nylander should be able to capitalize.