2019 Norris Trophy Odds
- Who are the top contenders for the 2019 NHL Norris Trophy?
- Look at odds for individual players, plus additional league and conference-specific trends from past years
- Track and with a player’s odds as they get longer and shorter throughout the 2018-19 NHL season
The James Norris Memorial Trophy (known as the Norris Trophy) is given every year to the defenseman that exhibits the best all-around ability at his position. Members of the hockey media determine which player takes home the award at season’s end.
We’ll be tracking odds on the top Norris Candidates available online sportsbook all season long, providing you with comprehensive coverage on how futures odds fluctuate for different defenseman around the league.
Victor Hedman won the Norris Trophy in 2018 for being the most important player on (debatably) the league’s most dominant team last season, the Tampa Bay Lightning. The 6’6 Swede has demonstrated his defensive acuity since he stepped into the league at the age of 19, but it’s his offensive breakout in the last two years (72 points in 2016-17 and 63 points in 2017-18) that’s solidified his position as a perennial Norris Contender.
At the time of writing, Hedman is out indefinitely with a mysterious ‘upper body injury.’ This won’t help his chances, and if he misses a good chunk of time he almost assuredly won’t win.
NHL Norris Trophy Top 5 Contenders (October 1st, 2018)
|Player||Bovada Odds (11/02/2018)|
|Erik Karlsson (San Jose Sharks)||+600|
|Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay Lightning)||+600|
|Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)||+600|
|Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)||+600|
|John Carlson (Washington Capitals)||+650|
In the 2017-18, Erik Karlsson dealt with a putrid Ottawa Senators roster, acute lockerroom drama that culminated with Mike Hoffman’s trade to Florida, myriad issues with penny-pinching owner Eugene Melynk, and a lingering ankle injury. He still put up 62 points in 71 games.
When he’s on his game, there’s no question that Erik Karlsson is the most talented defenseman in the game, and he may well be the best player in the league when he’s firing on all cylinders. He’s off to a slow start, but it’s still very early. If Karlsson doesn’t start to look more comfortable in Sharks’ teal by the quarter pole, then its start to worry. There’s a lot of reasons to be bullish on Erik Karlsson, and even with such short odds (average +600), we think he’s a value bet.
Out of the top 5 contenders, we’d be really reluctant to bet on Drew Doughty. Los Angeles looks putrid this year, with no signs of help on the way. Players on bottom 10 teams (which is where we expect LA to be, if not bottom 5) don’t ever win the Norris Trophy.
John Carlson, fresh off his $64 million retirement contract, picked up where he left off last season. He looks amazing in the early season, dazzling in the offensive zone while being more than adequate in his own end. He’s worth a wager.
NHL Norris Trophy Trends to Consider
- It’s essential that a defenseman not miss anytime to injury. In the last 10 years, the most games missed by a Norris Trophy winner was 6, when PK Subban sat out the first games of the 2012-2013 season in a contract holdout.
- Players essentially need to be on playoff teams to win the Norris. No player has ever won the Norris on a non-playoff team, dating back to the award’s inception in 1954.
- It isn’t an offense only award. If a defenseman is going to win the Norris, they need to demonstrate an ability (both via the eye test and with quantitative metrics) to play at an elite level in all facets of the game. This includes the power play, the penalty kill, and even-strength play.
2019 Norris Trophy Odds for Previous Winners
As you can see, the majority of Norris Trophy favorites are previous winners. Two-time winner, Duncan Keith, is still active in the NHL but thanks to a meteoric drop in his play at the age of 35, he isn’t a consideration for the Norris. His time as a contender for the trophy is firmly in the rearview mirror.
2019 Norris Trophy Odds for Western Conference Players
The majority of Norris Trophy candidates this season play in the West. Unless Hedman or Carlson win, its almost certain that the winner will come from the Western Conference.
2019 Norris Trophy Odds for Eastern Conference Players
The second shortest odds for the Norris belong to Victor Hedman, who will likely play with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the East for the duration of his career. We still like Karlsson over Hedman for this season, but its extremely likely that Hedman will go home with another Norris before the conclusion of his career.
Last 10 Norris Trophy Winners
|2017-2018||Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay Lightning)||77||17||46||63||27|
|2016-2017||Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)||82||29||47||76||31|
|2015-2016||Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)||82||14||37||51||26|
|2014-2015||Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)||82||21||45||66||24|
|2013-2014||Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks)||79||6||55||61||30|
|2012-2013||PK Subban (Montreal Canadiens)||42 (Lockout-Shortened Season)||11||27||38||23|
|2011-2012||Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)||81||19||59||78||21|
|2010-2011||Nicklas Lidstrom (Detroit Red Wings)||82||16||46||62||40|
|2009-2010||Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks)||82||14||55||69||26|
|2008-2009||Zdeno Chara (Boston Bruins)||80||19||31||50||31|
The median age of Norris winners in the last ten years is 28. The youngest winner over the previous ten years was the current favorite, Erik Karlsson, who was only 21 when he won the Norris in his third NHL season.
Players With Multiple Norris Trophies
Bobby Orr, Doug Harvey, and Nicklas Lidstrom are commonly regarded as not only some of the best defenseman to ever play in the league but also some of the best players to ever play the game. This is reflected in their absurd Norris Trophy totals.
Nicklas Lidstrom’s career was especially remarkable, as he never missed the playoffs once in his 20 season career. His durability was equally remarkable, as prior to missing 12 games in his final season at the age of 41, the most regular season games he had missed in a season was 6. In total, he played a total of 1564 regular season games, on top of 263 playoff games.