Leafs vs Sabres Prediction, Pick & Starting Goalies (Friday, Oct. 24)

• We have made our Leafs vs Sabres prediction for the front end of this home-and-home clash.
• Can Toronto or Buffalo rise above their inconsistencies?
• Read below for my Leafs vs Sabres prediction, pick, and starting goalies

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres are trying to play more consistent winning hockey. Online sportsbooks have currently placed Toronto as -125 favorites in the Leafs vs Sabres odds.

Toronto is 3-3-1 in the early going, while Buffalo is 3-4. The Sabres have played a little better of late, while Toronto has largely struggled. A loss to New Jersey on Tuesday night was met with much disdain and many questions from the Canadian media.

Puck drop is set for this game at approximately 7:00 PM ET on HULU, Disney+, and ESPN+ from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo. It is the opening game of this night. Let’s dig deeper into the Leafs vs Sabres prediction, picks, and trends.

Leafs vs Sabres Prediction

My Leafs vs Sabres prediction centers on pain. Toronto has been okay on the penalty kill, but a brutal 12.5% early on with the man advantage. Buffalo is at 25% on the power play but a staggering 96% on the penalty kill.

It has been 5-on-5, which has given Buffalo more problems than anything else. Toronto’s defense has been allowing more than 3.5 goals per game while scoring 3.43 goals per contest. Buffalo has scored and allowed just under three goals a contest.

The Leafs are truly a case of frustration. The John Tavares line is producing, but any line with Auston Matthews has been struggling of late. Worse, the defense is feeling the pinch as Anthony Stolarz feels the heat with a group that is missing Chris Tanev (out for the home and home due to injury).

Buffalo struggled mightily to start, but has improved a little. The Sabres cannot win face-offs, however. Currently, they stand at 42.9% and teams are accumulating zone time in their defensive zone with frequency. Alex Lyon has played well but has gotten little goal support (2.55 GAA, .924 save percentage).

The goalie matchup we will get to a little later, but the match-up is expected to be Lyon versus Stolarz in this tilt. Lyon was likely at press time. Stolarz was confirmed before lunchtime.

Alex Lyon is facing 35 shots with serious regularity. Buffalo is allowing 33.1 shots a contest (2nd worst in the NHL). Toronto yields 29 shots per game. Currently, the Sabres have been getting other-worldly goaltending even with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen out due to injury.

Leafs vs Sabres 2025-26 Stats

Toronto has started off more slowly defensively, while Buffalo has issues at even strength and off face-offs. The Maple Leafs will be without Morgan Rielly, who has been less than 100% of late.

The Sabres are better at home, going 3-2, while this is Toronto’s second away game of the season. It feels like the Maple Leafs have been enjoying home cooking since Canadian Thanksgiving.

Leafs vs Sabres Best Bets

• Pick: Sabres Moneyline (+115 at Caesars)
• Pick: Alex Lyon Over 25.5 saves (-115 via DraftKings)

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This is a spot to take Buffalo, potentially. Toronto’s special teams are not where they were last year, and it could take a little time to get that going. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been excellent, especially their penalty kill. Traditionally, the Sabres have struggled shorthanded, but not in October.

When Buffalo’s offense gets going, this could be a train that Toronto cannot stop. Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch are high-quality players. Thompson has one goal on 27 shots. That will not continue forever. Tuch has one goal on 20 shots.

Do not look into the previous meetings head-to-head. These teams are different than last year. Focus on the now.

At some point, Buffalo’s offense will get moving in the right direction. Toronto’s defense will eventually improve, and so will the goaltending. The Maple Leafs might take a bit longer to get there.

My Leafs vs Sabres best bet is Buffalo to win outright at home. The Sabres are currently less out of sync compared to the Leafs.

Leafs vs Sabres Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz was just confirmed to start for Toronto. He sports a 3.01 GAA and .894 save percentage. Like we mentioned above, Toronto will be without two of their key defensemen on Friday night. That was just updated as well.

However, the Sabres will not have it easy here. Toronto always plays Buffalo tough, and Alex Lyon likely will have to make around 30 saves to get the win. I believe he can. Good luck!