NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Aug. 23)

• NASCAR’s Coke Zero 400 fires off tonight (August 23) at 7:30pm.
• Ryan Blaney will lead the field to green, with teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric close behind.
• Can Kyle Larson make some noise on Saturday night? Read below for predictions and longshot value.

---

NASCAR will (roll onto) the beaches of Daytona this Saturday, August 23, for the Coke Zero Sugar 400, where high banks and high speeds await. The green flag waves at 7:30 pm on NBC.

Daytona is a 2.5-mile asphalt superspeedway with 31 degrees of banking in the corners. Drivers will be “drafting” bumper to bumper, just inches away from each other. Ryan Blaney is the pole-sitter, after the starting grid was set by metric. Playoff hopeful Alex Bowman starts second.

Here’s the thing about Daytona: the track is equal parts cathedral and casino. Cars sling around this joint at 200 mph, three-wide with no room to sneeze, while everyone at home sits around pretending this is a totally rational sport. The “Big One” lurks like a shark in shallow water, ready to turn a playoff dream into a Goodyear-sponsored bonfire.

That’s the beauty — and the curse — of superspeedway betting. There are mountains of data, simulations, and charts that would make your high school math teacher proud. But the truth is, one rogue bump draft can make half of it irrelevant before Stage 2. That is why this is the perfect week to ditch the favorites and dig deep into the longshot bin. Weird box scores and career-making upsets are Daytona’s love language.

Let’s take a look at the odds board to find some longshot value before half the field gets turned into a scrap heap.

NASCAR Coke Zero 400 Betting Odds

*Odds available as of August 23, 2:00pm at DraftKings. Check out the top US betting sites for NASCAR on Sunday.

Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are the favorites, each with a 10% implied win probability. Playoff hopeful and drafting ace, Brad Keselowski, is close behind, with a 9.09% implied probability.

NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar Picks & Predictions

• Kyle Larson Outright Winner (+2000, Marketwide)
• Kyle Larson Top-10 Finish (+133, BetRivers)
• Kyle Larson over Kyle Busch (+115, DraftKings)

Kyle Larson is one of the most talented drivers on planet Earth. Dirt, stock cars, sprint cars — if it’s got wheels, he can win in it. The problem is that for years, superspeedways were his kryptonite. Between 2022 and 2024, Larson rattled off an 11-race streak without so much as a top-10 at a drafting track. He was allergic to clean finishes.

But things have changed. Larson snapped that drought with a P4 at Talladega last fall, then followed it up with a P3 at Atlanta and a runner-up at Talladega this spring. The man is evolving, like Charmander all the way into Charizard…finally learning how to embrace potential carnage instead of fainting whenever it’s time to bump draft.

🏁KYLE LARSON WINS TOYOTA QUALIFYING NIGHT 2!🏁#NOSvilleNationals pic.twitter.com/aoIy72m58v

— Knoxville Raceway (@knoxvilleraces) August 8, 2025

Now, yes — it looks like fading Kyle Busch has become a recurring theme in these articles. That’s not personal. We don’t have a dartboard of Kyle’s face in the office. It’s just that superspeedway betting is chaos theory in fire suits, and plus-money matchups are the only responsible way to play. You’re not getting rich laying -135 on “maybe this guy doesn’t get wrecked.”

The numbers back it up too. Our projections slot Larson at 14.3 and Busch at 18.3, with the algorithm weighing recent form more heavily. Sure, Rowdy’s long-term superspeedway resume is shinier, but 2025 tells a different story. Larson’s average finish (10.8) is second-best in the series at drafting tracks, with an average running position of 14.2 (sixth-best). Busch? A 22.8 average finish and a 17.1 average running spot.

This isn’t your dad’s “Larson can’t draft” narrative anymore. At +2000, it’s the right time to pounce (probably).

NASCAR Longshots with Value

If the “Big One” gobbles up Kyle Larson, we can’t just sit around watching the rest of the race with empty hands and sad eyes. That’s not how we do things. Our model spit out a few names flashing value down the board, and while they’re not the headliners, they’re worth a sprinkle. Think of them as the lottery tickets in your pocket — cheap thrills that just might cash if the seas part.

Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek roll into Daytona as Legacy Motor Club teammates — and both have the tools to ruin somebody’s playoff hopes. If you’re Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, or Chris Buescher, you might want to invest in a stress ball.

This guy, @Erik_Jones 😎 pic.twitter.com/OH6UEeYk1U

— John Hunter Nemechek (@JHNemechek) July 6, 2025

The Legacy cars have shown flashes of life this season, and in the gladiator pit that is Daytona, all it takes is being in the right line at the right time. Need proof? Harrison Burton lucked his way into victory lane in this race last year, and Jones/Nemechek are significantly more talented than that knucklehead.

Ladder these guys’ positional props for added fun!