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Rio Open Semifinals Odds – Carlos Alcaraz vs Nicolas Jarry & Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Cameron Norrie Predictions
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- No. 2 seed Cameron Norrie is the favorite vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the semifinal at the Rio Open
- No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz vs Nicolas Jarry will be the second semifinal on Saturday
- We break down Alcaraz vs Jarry, and Zapata Miralles vs Norrie, and make some predictions
Carlos Alcaraz went down to the South American clay to start his season and pile up some ranking points.
He comes into the semifinal vs Nicolas Jarry at the Rio Open Saturday with a 7-0 record.
Alcaraz vs Jarry Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | -4.5 (-130) | -1200 | O 22.5 (-126) |
| [Q] Nicolas Jarry (CHI) | +4.5 (-102) | +580 | U 22.5 (-108) |
Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite in the Alcaraz vs Jarry odds at -1200, with Jarry’s odds at +580. On pedigree alone, that’s an easy call. But does the longshot qualifier have a chance?
Odds as of Feb. 24 at FanDuel
Big Stakes For Alcaraz and Jarry
If Alcaraz wins the tournament, he would be less than 100 points behind Novak Djokovic for the No. 1 ranking. At least for a week.
If Jarry can pull off the upset, he’d move into the top 85. Already, he’s on the cusp of the top 100.
Jarry served an 11-month doping suspension for two types of steroids in 2020, which he blamed on contaminated supplements obtained, ironically, in Brazil.
The 27-year-old Chilean had no ranking at all on his return, this very week two years ago. It’s a big deal.
Alcaraz vs Jarry Head-to-Head
Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Nicolas Jarry
| 19 (May 5, 2003) | Age | 27 (Oct. 11, 1995) |
| El Palmar, Spain | Birthplace | Santiago, Chile |
| 6-0 | Height | 6-6 |
| 7 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 38 (July 22, 2019) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 139 |
| $11,924,947 | Career Prize Money | $2,536,309 |
| 7-0 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 5-1 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
Jarry defeated two seeds in qualifying. In the main draw, he ran through No. 3 seed Lorenzo Musetti, the solid Pedro Martinez and then No. 6 seed Sebastian Baez in the quarterfinals Friday.
Alcaraz Escapes Lajovic
Meanwhile, Alcaraz had all kinds of trouble putting away Serbian veteran Dusan Lajovic – until the second-set tiebreak.
He was down 2-4 in both sets before coming back to win 6-4, 7-6 (0).
9-0 against Serbian opponents 👀@carlosalcaraz comes from a break down in both sets to defeat Lajovic 6-4 7-6(0) and reach the #RioOpen semis! pic.twitter.com/LdVoHCNkGA
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 24, 2023
Still, it took less than two hours. And in Jarry, he faces a player unused to this kind of spotlight, who has already played five singles matches this week.
Alcaraz vs Jarry Prediction
Jarry is a 6-foot-6, big-serving power player. But the surface will neutralize that, and Alcaraz is every bit as comfortable on it.
Given Alcaraz’s superior level, and the miles on Jarry’s Rio pedometer, it should be fairly routine.
Best Bet: Under 21.5 Games (-128)
Zapata Miralles vs Norrie Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernabe Zapata Miralles (ESP) | +3.5 (-108) | +198 | O 21.5 (-128) |
| [2] Cameron Norrie (GBR) | -3.5 (-122) | -270 | U 21.5 (-104) |
Norrie is a favorite – but at -270 odds not an overwhelming one – in to Zapata’s +198 odds for Saturday’s semifinal clash in Rio.
Late-Blooming Zapata Miralles On the Rise
At 26, Zapata Miralles reached his career high on Monday, after a lot of grinding in the Challengers.
He has played two-thirds of his career ATP-level matches on red clay, right about .500 on the won-loss side. On hard courts, it’s a struggle. He went winless to open the season – until he arrived on South American dirt.
Breaking New Ground 👊
Bernabé Zapata Miralles reaches his FIRST ATP Semifinal with a 6-3 6-7 6-3 victory over Cerundolo!@ArgentinaOpen pic.twitter.com/jFEQLwOTww
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 18, 2023
Zapata Miralles reached the semis last week in Buenos Aires. And this week in Rio, he defeated Francisco Cerundolo (the No. 4 seed) for the second straight week. He also upset No. 7 seed Albert Ramos-Viñolas.
Zapata Miralles vs Norrie Head-to-Head
Bernabe Zapata Miralles
VS
Cameron Norrie
| 26 (Jan. 12, 1997) | Age | 27 (Aug. 23, 1995) |
| Valencia, Spain | Birthplace | Johannesburg, South Africa |
| 6-0 | Height | 6-2 |
| 0 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 4 |
| No. 63 (Feb. 20, 2023) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 8 (Sept. 12, 2022) |
| No. 63 | Current Ranking | No. 13 |
| $1,402,947 | Career Prize Money | $8,478,219 |
| 7-4 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 16-3 |
| 4 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Norrie Solid on Clay
Norrie’s career ratio is just the opposite. Three-quarters of his non-grass career matches at the ATP level have been on hard courts.
That said, his best winning percentage (62.7%) is on clay. The 26-year-old’s heralded lung capacity and endurance allows him to tolerate the long rallies most common to that surface.
Unreal & crazy experience today getting to explore Rocinha. Visited Tennis School Fabiano de Paula and got to hit with some of the kids! Cheers Walter for inviting us into your house, decent view you got 🇧🇷🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/D4BsYGpIGc
— Cameron Norrie (@cam_norrie) February 23, 2023
Zapata Miralles vs Norrie Prediction
Who will win? It’s harder to predict when the players have never met.
But by proxy, Zapata Miralles has a shot.
He just defeated the extremely solid Ramos-Viñolas on Friday. Norrie has played Ramos-Viñolas on clay four times. And he’s lost every time.
A good prediction is that it’s going to take awhile. Zapata Miralles has always been a tough out – never more so than the last two weeks.
Best Bet: Norrie to Win First Set, and Win the Match (-140)
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Stephanie Myles
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
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