Political Odds – The Blather Before the NH Battle

Politics often makes for strange bedfellows, especially in this Monty Python-like election cycle. But how about Jimmy Carter making nice with Donald Trump? What’s next? TMZ pictures of Michael Buble on a beach with Joan Jett?

Speaking before Parliament in England, the 91-year-old former president didn’t exactly endorse the reality TV star/real estate mogul as much as he damned him with faint praise: Trump’s ever-changing policies, said Carter, are preferable to Cruz’s rigid, hard-right initiatives.

In other words, if the choice is Trump or Cruz, better the fickle devil you can lambaste. Trump can change; Cruz won’t.

Carter aside, the Republican action in New Hampshire ahead of next Tuesday’s primary has been vintage roller derby: Trump is threatening to sue anyone and everything over Iowa voting “irregularities;” as of Wednesday, Ben Carson hadn’t even shown up in the state (apparently his aides have yet to tell him that he’s still in the race); Carly Fiorina is whining because she might be the only candidate not eligible for Saturday’s debate; and Jeb Bush is puzzled that he gives speeches and no one applauds.

The only thing everyone agrees on is that they hate Cruz.

In other words, status quo.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton keeps trying to eat into Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire lead by apologizing for her 2002 Senate vote to authorize war in Iraq. It is an albatross around Clinton’s neck that won’t go away, and a major impediment to her efforts to cut into Sanders’ large edge among progressives in the party.

To the odds:

2016 Primary Odds

ODDS TO WIN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY (REPUBLICANS)

Donald Trump: 2/5
Marco Rubio: 3/1
Ted Cruz: 6/1
Jeb Bush: 8/1
Chris Christie: 12/1
John Kasich: 12/1
Ben Carson: 25/1
Carly Fiorina: 30/1
Jim Gilmore: 75/1

ODDS TO WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY (DEMOCRATS)

Bernie Sanders: 2/5
Hillary Clinton: 3/1
 
REPUBLICAN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SPREAD

Donald Trump: -13.5 points

DEMOCRATIC NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SPREAD

Bernie Sanders: -14.5 points

ODDS TRUMP MAKES A SEXIST REMARK DURING HIS VICTORY/CONCESSION SPEECH

Yes: 7/1
No: 1/7

ODDS SANDERS MENTIONS CLINTON’S EMAIL CONTROVERSY DURING HIS VICTORY/CONCESSION SPEECH

Yes: 9/1
No: 1/10

OVER/UNDER ON HOW MANY TIMES RUBIO MENTIONS TRUMP BY NAME IN HIS VICTORY/CONCESSION SPEECH

OVER /UNDER – 1.5

ODDS ON WHAT COLOR TIE TRUMP WEARS ON THE DAY OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

Solid red: 3/1
Striped: 4/1
Solid blue: 5/1

ODDS ON WHAT COLOR SUIT CLINTON WEARS ON THE DAY OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

Blue: 2/3
Black: 4/1
Green: 12/1
Red: 25/1
Gray: 25/1
Other: 30/1

ODDS THE WINNER OF THE REPUBLICAN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY WINS THE PARTY’S NOMINATION

Yes: 3/1
No: 2/7

ODDS THE WINNER OF THE DEMOCRATIC NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY WINS THE PARTY’S NOMINATION

Yes: 8/1
No: 1/9

ODDS TO WIN THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

Marco Rubio: 3/2
Donald Trump: 4/1
Ted Cruz: 5/1
Jeb Bush: 10/1
John Kasich: 12/1
Chris Christie: 12/1
Ben Carson: 25/1
Carly Fiorina: 40/1
Jim Gilmore, Paul Ryan, Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney and Clint Eastwood (field bet): 50/1

ODDS TO WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Hillary Clinton: 1/5
Bernie Sanders: 5/1

ODDS ON WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Democrat: 9/13
Republican: 3/2
Independent: 250/1

(Photo credit: Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)