Odds Say John Brown Outproduces Cole Beasley in 2019 After Both Sign With Bills
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: April 3, 2020 at 2:15 pm EDTPublished:
- The Bills receiving corps got a makeover this week and you can bet on who will be more productive in 2019: John Brown or Cole Beasley
- Brown is an elite deep threat, while Beasley is one of the most reliable slot receivers in the NFL
- Who will have more receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2019?
The Buffalo Bills went on an expensive shopping spree this week, upgrading their wide receiver depth in a major way.
.@BuffaloBills signing WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley.
Brown: three-year, $27M deal (via @RapSheet)
Beasley: four-year, $29M deal (via @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/3rlsduFuR3— NFL (@NFL) March 12, 2019
The addition of speedster John Brown and safety valve Cole Beasley, immediately bumps the projection of second year quarterback Josh Allen, and gives the Bills two polished receivers to compliment youngsters Robert Foster, Zay Jones, and Isaiah McKenzie.
Arguments that John Brown is just a deep threat and not a great route runner at all levels will not be heard in this court. pic.twitter.com/QykAsPOhrr
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 9, 2019
Brown and Beasley are coming off 715 and 672 yard seasons respectively, yet online sportsbooks expect a significant drop in their receiving production next season. Both players have an early receiving yards prop that is roughly 100 yards less than what they totalled in 2018.
Projected 2019 Receiving Yards for John Brown and Cole Beasley
| Player | Prop | Projection | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | Receiving Yards | 625.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Cole Beasley | Receiving Yards | 575.5 | -115 | -115 |
Volume is King
Beasley is hyper efficient, while Brown is a much more volatile receiver. With an average depth of target of just 7.4 yards, Beasley relies on heavy volume to rack up yards, while Brown can get there in just one play.
If anyone can track down Josh Allen’s deep balls, it might just be John Brown #smokeypic.twitter.com/CcwPksHLwg
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 12, 2019
Beasley caught 75% of his targets in 2018, while Brown hauled in only 43% of the passes thrown his way. He more than made up for the low catch rate by averaging 17.0 yards per reception, a new career high.
John Brown vs Cole Beasley Last 3 Seasons
| 1,531 | REC YDS | 1,891 |
| 37.3 | REC YDS/GM | 44.4 |
| 10 | REC TD | 12 |
| 0.24 | REC TD/GM | 0.29 |
Brown’s Style is More favorable for Allen
Brown needs plenty of opportunities to make plays, but when he hits, he hits big and that high risk, high reward style should mesh nicely with Allen. As a rookie, Allen took a deep shot on 19.7% of his drop backs, the most by any quarterback in the NFL.
.@joshallenQB goes DEEP.
He’s got Robert Foster for SIX!?: FOX #GoBills pic.twitter.com/M3sprB8GLW
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2018
He had the most success in 2018 targeting players outside the numbers, 20+ yards downfield, which is precisely the type of routes that Brown, and his 4.34 speed excel at.
Josh Allen to John Brown: “run as fast as you can towards the end zone.”
— Matthew Bové (@Matt_Bove) March 12, 2019
Brown will be the primary focus on the outside, a role that saw Foster produce 511 yards and three touchdowns in the final seven games of the season.
“I love John Brown to the Bills. He’s a deep threat with blazing speed who will be a perfect fit for Josh Allen.”
NFL analysts give their grades for the Bills free agent moves: https://t.co/j3lOyZxTG4 pic.twitter.com/g5q0PxG0J2
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) March 14, 2019
By contrast, Allen struggled with the type of routes Beasley will be running, registering a dreadful 52.2 passing grade from Pro Football Focus on short throws over the middle. Beasley’s sure hands will likely improve that number, but his 5’8″ frame won’t cure Allen’s accuracy issues.
Pick: Brown Over 625 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projected 2019 Receiving TDs for John Brown and Cole Beasley
| Player | Prop | Projection | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | Receiving TD | 4 | -115 | -115 |
| Cole Beasley | Receiving TD | 4 | -115 | -115 |
Neither Brown or Beasley is known for being a huge touchdown threat, and that’s reflected in their 2019 TD props. Both are projected for four scores, which is consistent with their averages over the past four seasons. Brown was targeted more heavily in the red zone than Beasley in 2018 (15-10), and received twice as many end zone looks.
“TOUCHDOWN, JOHN BROWN!”
Relive all three play calls for the @JoeFlacco to @Jwalk_back12 TD! pic.twitter.com/yeFCLbvA7D
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 11, 2018
Allen showed a propensity to lean on his outside receivers and tight ends in the red zone last season, targeting them on 22 of 27 pass attempts, which doesn’t bode well for Beasley. If the Bills new slot man is going to have any kind of touchdown success, it will most likely have to come through his yards after the catch.
Graceful fall from @Bease11 for the #DallasCowboys touchdown ? pic.twitter.com/jySdrcExGp
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) October 14, 2018
Brown, meanwhile, will have the luxury of being peppered with deep balls, which should create ample opportunities for scores, given his blazing speed and his propensity to get behind the defense.
The John Brown touchdownpic.twitter.com/BJVzK74BUa
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 1, 2018
Pick: Brown Over 4 Receiving TD (-115)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
