Bradley Chubb’s Odds to Lead NFL in Sacks Still Listed at 25-1; Is There Value After Seeing Him Dominate the 49ers?

• Bradley Chubb recorded a sack, three tackles and a forced fumble against San Francisco in the Denver Broncos’ preseason home opener
• He’s listed at 25-1 to lead the NFL in sacks
• Chubb collected 12 sacks last season as a rookie

Bradley Chubb posted 12 sacks last season as an NFL rookie. It was good enough for a tie for 12th overall in the NFL. The Denver Broncos outside linebacker got to the quarterback at least five more times than any other first-year player.

Can Chubb take things to the next level as a sophomore? Early indications are that could be something to ponder.

Chubb is still listed as its co-ninth betting choice to lead the NFL in sacks this season. Might it be time to consider a wager at that price?

2019-20 NFL Sacks Leaders Odds

*Odds taken on 08/20/19

Chubb was second on the Broncos in sacks last season. Von Miller led the team with 14.5.

Chubb a Rookie Sack Sensation

To get an idea of where Chubb could end up going, you have to look back to see where others who’ve done what he did have gone.

Defensive ends that recorded 12+ sacks as a rookie EVER:

Jevon Kearse 14.5
Aldon Smith 14
Dwight Freeney 13
Reggie White 13
Leslie O'Neal 12.5
Simeon Rice 12.5
Mark Anderson 12
Charles Haley 12
Julius Peppers 12
Terrell Suggs 12
Bradley Chubb 12 👀pic.twitter.com/wN0y29vqDA

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 20, 2019

Chubb’s 12 sacks were the most by an NFL rookie since San Francisco outside linebacker Aldon Smith collected 14 sacks in 2011. That same season, Chubb’s current Denver teammate inside linebacker Miller also hit double digits, recording 11.5 sacks.

Chubb is just the sixth NFLer to garner a dozen or more QB sacks in his rookie season since 2000.

Most Sacks by an NFL Rookie Since 2000

While he’s keeping some high-end company on that list, of note is the fact that only Dwight Freeney (2004) would ever finish a season as the NFL sack leader.

Miller’s Timing Should Help

Broncos inside linebacker Miller knows a thing or two about getting to the quarterback. Over his eight-season NFL career, Miller, who was voted Super Bowl 50 MVP, has sacked the QB 98 times in 120 games.

Year two of Bradley Chubb is shaping up to be a monster 👀👀 @astronaut pic.twitter.com/Nh718DP9vL

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) August 20, 2019

That works out to an average of 13.06 sacks per season. Miller always figures to draw plenty of attention from opposing offensive coordinators when gameplanning. That could free up Chub to enjoy a field day in the enemy backfield.

.@JoeTessESPN on @ESPNNFL MNF telecast: “I don’t know if I’ve ever heard a teammate more supportive of another teammate than the way Von Miller (@VonMiller) praises Bradley Chubb (@astronaut.)”

— Patrick Smyth (@psmyth12) August 20, 2019

In Chubb, Miller sees a combination of him and Chicago Bears QB hunter Khalil Mack.

Is Chubb Set to Bag Himself a Sack Title?

In Denver’s 24-15 preseason loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Chubb was dominant.

Early in the game he zipped by six-time Pro Bowl tackle Joe Staley to hurry San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo, leading to Isaac Yiadom’s interception.

Chubb blew past 49ers left tackle Justin Skule to not only sack QB CJ Beathard but also force a fumble. He added three tackles to his performance. Chubb indicated that the strip sack move he utilized against Beathard was taught to him by Miller just two days earlier.

Look at what Bradley Chubb did to a six-time Pro Bowl tackle. This was on Isaac Yiadom’s interception in the 1Q. pic.twitter.com/RokN2caG6S

— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) August 20, 2019

Each year there’s significant turnover among the NFL sack leaders. Chandler Jones of the Arizona Cardinals led in 2017 and finished tied for seventh in 2018. Ryan Kerrigan of the Washington Redskins was the only other top-10 performer from 2017 to repeat in 2018.

If u follow me, you know how I felt about #broncos LB Bradley Chubb during the ‘18 daft process. After watching the young man work and speaking to him yesterday, let me tell you this…’19 is going to be “that kind of year” for him. If you don’t respect his game, you will soon…

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) August 18, 2019

You need to go back to Reggie White with the 1987-88 Philadelphia Eagles to locate a player who led the league in sacks in successive seasons.

The door is historically open for change.

At odds of +2500, it’d be foolish not to put a unit down on Chubb to lead the NFL in sacks this season.