Saints Favored by 6.5 vs Texans; New Orleans Was Just 3-6 ATS as Home Favorites Last Year
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: July 31, 2024 at 1:26 pm EDTPublished:
- The Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints clash on Monday Night Football
- The Saints are 6.5-point favorites in the one of highest total games of the week (52)
- What’s the best ATS bet for HOU-NO
The Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints clash on Monday Night Football (Sep. 7 at 7:10 pm ET) in a game that’s sure to produce a lot of points.
Both teams feature elite offenses and are defending division winners, but online sportsbooks have made the Saints a full touchdown favorite.
Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints Odds
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +6.5 (-109) |
| New Orleans Saints | -6.5 (-109) |
*All odds taken 09/09/19
New Orleans was 14-4 straight up last season (including playoffs), but weren’t exactly world beaters against the number.
Looking back through NFL ATS records from 2018 reveals that the Saints were just 10-8 against the the spread, while the Texans were considerably worse at 7-9-1. New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite for Monday Night’s tilt but that number has moved slightly towards Houston and now sits at -6.5.
There’s nothing like Monday night.#HOUvsNO | @Bose | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/rN1HHo9gV4
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 5, 2019
You can see the odds movement experienced at each sportsbook in our Texans vs Saints odds and stats.
Not So Super in the Dome
There’s a general belief that the Saints have a massive home field advantage playing in the SuperDome but that’s not necessarily the case. New Orleans is just 24-16 at home over the last five regular seasons, and were 3-6 ATS as home favorites in 2018.
Saints ATS as Home Favorites in 2018
| Week | Opponent | Point Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | -10 | L 48-40 |
| 2 | Browns | -10 | W 21-18 |
| 5 | Redskins | -5.5 | W 43-19 |
| 11 | Eagles | -7 | W 48-7 |
| 12 | Falcons | -11.5 | W 31-17 |
| 16 | Steelers | -6.5 | W 31-28 |
| 17 | Panthers | -8 | L 33-14 |
| 19 | Eagles | -8.5 | W 20-14 |
| 20 | Rams | -3 | L 26-23 |
The Saints lost three of those games outright, including a Week 1 stunner to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers. They’ve lost each of their last four home openers and have just two winning seasons at the SuperDome since 2015.
Watson Won’t be Contained
Prior to the Texans’ acquisition of Laremy Tunsil, it looked like New Orlean’s pass rush would have a major advantage over Houston’s offensive line. Now that the mismatch has been mitigated, Deshaun Watson should have more time to attack downfield. The Saints allowed the 10th most completions of 20+ yards a season ago, and no quarterback (with the exception of Patrick Mahomes) likes throwing deep more than Watson.
Watson ➡️ Fuller is a filthy deep-ball combo
(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/Bn889GOTr0
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 16, 2018
He has elite receiving options in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and a new dynamic backfield threat in Duke Johnson. They’ll need to score early and often to keep pace with the Saints, but this offense is built for shootouts and should have no problem hanging with Drew Brees and company.
Follow the Action
The line is already moving towards Houston and could get even lower by kickoff. These two teams are both stout against the run, but weak versus the pass which should produce plenty of fireworks. New Orleans’ home field advantage is severely overblown, and they shouldn’t be laying this close to a touchdown against one of the AFC’s better teams.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
