College Football Week 4 ATS Picks: UCF Hype Train Has No Brakes

• Week 4 of college football begins on Friday, September 20th
• We look at three ATS picks that provide good value in Week 4
• The UCF Knights are 3-0 ATS this season

Week 4 of college football begins on Friday, September 20th. Unlike last week, this Saturday features a handful of ranked-on-ranked matchups. But that’s not where we’re going for the Week 4 best bets.

First stop is Heinz Field, where the #15 UCF Knights (3-0) will visit the ACC’s Pitt Panthers (1-2).

UCF vs. Pittsburgh Odds

*Odds as of 17/09/19.

The UCF Knights have gotten off to an impressive start this season, opening the year 3-0 and beating their opponents by a combined score of 155-41. They took down Stanford 45-27 in Week 3 after having their way with Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic in the previous two weeks.

Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel went 22-of-38 for 347 yards and four touchdowns in his second college start in Week 3. Central Florida has now has won 25 consecutive regular-season games and 28 of 29 overall since the start of 2017. They’ve recorded at least 30 points in all 29 of those games.

A lot of people nationally have no idea who he is…but they’re finding out in a hurry @UCF_Football he’s the real deal 🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈 pic.twitter.com/rBikhJRnys

— Rene Ingoglia (@reneingoglia) September 15, 2019

Pittsburgh is coming off a tough 17-10 rivalry loss to Penn State in Week 3 and are 1-2 on the season. They’ve lost starting defensive tackle Keyshon Camp to a season-ending knee injury after previously losing starting defensive end Rashad Weaver to a knee injury in training camp.

The Panthers have a good secondary that will keep this game from being an embarrassment, but their offense has struggled. The run game has been non-existent and they are averaging a total of just 14.7 points per game. It’s simply not going to be good enough against an explosive UCF attack that had their way with Stanford. When these two teams met last season, it was all Central Florida  in a commanding 45-14 victory.

The Knights have covered the spread in all three games so far this season, and they’ll continue that trend in Pittsburgh on Saturday.

Pick: UCF (-12.5)

Oregon vs. Stanford Odds

The Ducks are set to open Pac-12 play at Stanford in Week 4 after beating Montana 35-3 in Week 3. Senior QB Justin Herbert threw for 316 yards and five touchdowns in the victory. He’s currently tied for third in the nation with 11 TD passes this season.

Oregon is getting back on track after a disappointing loss to Auburn in their opener and will be looking to make a statement in their first Pac-12 matchup of the season. Stanford’s season, meanwhile, is heading in the wrong direction after a 1-2 start.

Time for Pac-12 action. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/gTuvaPdzQi

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) September 15, 2019

The Cardinal defense gave up four touchdowns in the opening quarter against UCF and 413 yards of total offense in the first half. They’re going up against a dynamic Oregon offense in Week 4 that is averaging 44.3 points per game. The Ducks also have a strong defense that ranks first in sacks (10), second in yards allowed (272.3), and third in takeaways (seven).

Herbert has been solid for Oregon, while Stanford QB K.J. Costello underwhelmed in his return from injury in Week 3. The Cardinal’s starting QB went 21-of-44 for 199 yards, one touchdown and an interception in the 45-27 loss. The team is also dealing with several other injuries, including losing All-American-caliber OL Walker Little to a season-ending injury.

Stanford has won the last three meetings between these two teams, but this isn’t the same team that beat the Ducks 38-31 in 2018. The Cardinal have lost star running back Bryce Love, in addition to their top three pass-catchers from 2018, and are struggling out of the gate this year.

Oregon is coming off two solid wins, while the Cardinal rank in the 100s in major offensive and defensive categories and are battling injuries.

Pick: Oregon (-10.5)

Louisville vs. Florida State Odds

Florida State has gotten off to a rough 1-2 start in their second year under Willie Taggart. The team’s only win this season was a close call in Week 2 against Louisiana-Monroe. The War Hawks missed an extra point in OT, which allowed FSU to prevail 45-44. The Seminoles also blew an 18-point lead to Boise State in Week 1.

Louisville remained competitive with Notre Dame in their opener and earned victories over Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky in the following two weeks. The Cardinals pulled off the Week 3 victory without starting QB Jawon Pass, who missed the game with a foot injury. Louisville has three capable QBs in Pass, redshirt sophomore Malik Cunningham ,and true freshman Evan Conley.

The Cardinals are well-balanced on offense as demonstrated by their 205 passing yards and 210 rushing yards against Western Kentucky. Wide receiver Tutu Atwell caught four passes for 141 yards in the game, including three that went for touchdowns.

Louisville ranks 17th with 260.3 rushing yards per game and can take advantage of an FSU defense that surrendered 621 yards to Boise State in Week 1. The Seminoles have also lost five-star recruit DE Joshua Kaindoh to a season-ending injury.

There’s a toxic atmosphere surrounding FSU right now, while Louisville is coming off consecutive victories.

There’s a toxic atmosphere surrounding FSU right now, while Louisville is coming off consecutive victories. FSU’s offense has been decent led by James Blackman, but the offensive line has already allowed nine sacks and 29 tackles for loss. The Seminoles are now 6-9 under Taggart and have coughed up important leads throughout this young season. This isn’t a team playing with confidence.

The Cardinals only lost 28-24 to the Seminoles in 2018, one of their worst seasons in school history, and they will keep it close again this year.

Pick: Louisville (+6.5)