Rams vs Browns Props: Take Advantage of Mayfield in Week 3

• Week 3’s Sunday Night Football matchup sees the LA Rams take on the Cleveland Browns
• My Week 2 SNF props went 2-1 for +1.56 units; I’m 5-1 on the season for +5.32 units
• Get the best props to bet for SNF Week 3

Week 2 didn’t go quite as perfectly as Week 1, but we came out 2-1 for a profit of 1.56 units. We’re now 5-1 and up 5.32 units through two weeks of Sunday Night Football action.

A couple of “struggling” quarterbacks will square off in Cleveland this Sunday night, as Baker Mayfield and the Browns host Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams.

After scanning the offerings at sportsbooks, a trio of props centered around Cleveland’s polarizing signal-caller looked like they could be taken advantage of; and after some research, I like them even more.

Prop 1: Baker Mayfield Pass Completions

The Browns second year QB is off to a bit of a rocky start with twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. Good thing consistently solid performances have nothing to do with how many completions Baker Mayfield should record.

In the Browns’ Week 1 blowout loss, Mayfield hit on 25 of 38 pass attempts; then in Week 2, with an opposite game script that saw the Browns in control from early on, he hit on 19 of 35 pass attempts.

Baker Mayfield focused on getting more completions to Cleveland Browns’ playmakers https://t.co/sGxmW9zGox

— WKYC Channel 3 News (@wkyc) September 21, 2019

He’s completed 94 balls in his last four games for and average of 23.5 per game. If Mayfield throws at least 35 passes and completes them at his career average rate of around 62%, that would put him at 22 completions.

The Browns are not afraid to throw the ball in 2019, as they have put the ball in the air on 66.39% of their offensive plays, good for ninth in the league. Whether ahead or behind, they will be airing it out. And with a superstar receiver as the new offensive centerpiece, I expect the trend will continue.

Not once have the Rams held an opposing QB under 20 completions in their last six. Their high risk, high reward cornerback play tends to lead to some open looks for the opposing QB. Add that to reigning DPOY Aaron Donald not being 100% for the game, and the odds Baker completes a few balls Sunday night is looking pretty good.

Pick: Over (-143)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.4 units

Prop 2: Mayfield vs Goff Completions

So if we like Baker over 21 pass completions, what are Jared Goff’s chances of completing more balls than him?

Goff has not looked like the same QB that was leading the Rams’ juggernaut offense through Week 11 of the 2018 season. In his last 16 games, including his 2018 Week 9-11 scorching hot streak, Goff has completed 20.7 passes per game.

*sets @EAMaddenNFL to rookie*

Baker Mayfield slant to OBJ.pic.twitter.com/Iyxxd4DKDe

— Dave @ BIGPLAY (@BIGPLAY_dave) September 17, 2019

Since their 2018 Week 12 bye, Goff has produced 20 completions or fewer in seven out of ten games. In his last eight road games, he has completed 20.5 balls per game; and since the beginning of 2018, in games on the road, not in a dome, he has completed 19.3 passes per game.

The Rams rely on their run game more than most and have averaged only 33.5 passes per game in 2019, good for a tie for 18th.

Pick: Mayfield (-122)
Risk: 1 units to win 0.82 units

Prop 3: Mayfield Passing Yards

With all these Baker Mayfield completions we’re betting on, there has to be some yards to go along with them.

In eight of his 16 career games, Mayfield has eclipsed 265 yards – he’s done it in each of his last four. For his career, he has averaged 270.9 yards per game, all while not having Odell Beckham Jr for 14 of his 16 games.

In his two games with his new weapon, Baker has averaged 312 yards per game. His 624 passing yards puts him tenth through the first two weeks of the season.

Our Offensive Rookie of the Year is none other than Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns.

(via @PFF_Mike)https://t.co/ZVCewdPjQg pic.twitter.com/GArT2wsGf4

— PFF (@PFF) January 2, 2019

There are actually 17 QBs in the NFL averaging over 265 yards per game; 265 yards passing is just a decent day for average QBs in today’s league. But for a young, outspoken, gunslinging, franchise-saving QB such as Baker Mayfield, 265 should be a walk in the park.

Pick: Over (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units