Odorizzi, Twins Return Home as +120 Underdogs vs Severino, Yankees in ALDS Game 3 – Picks & Odds
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: April 27, 2020 at 12:36 pm EDTPublished:
- Down 2-0 to the New York Yankees, the Minnesota Twins will go with 15-game winner Jake Odorizzi in Game 3 of the ALDS
- The Yankees will counter with Luis Severino, who’s pitched just nine inning this season
- The Twins are listed as +120 underdogs
Jake Odorizzi was the ace of the Minnesota Twins’ staff most of this season. On Monday, he’s also their last hope.
Luis Severino was the ace of the New York Yankees’ staff last season. This year, he’s pitched just 12 innings due to rotator cuff inflammation and a lat strain.
Despite Odorizzi’s strong campaign and Severino’s relative lack of use, books still lists the Yankees as the -140 chalk to win Game 3 on Sunday at Target Field and sweep this best-of-five American League Divisional Series in the Twins vs Yankees Game 3 odds.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Game 3 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -140 | +1.5 (+110) | Over 9.0 (-115) |
| Minnesota Twins | +120 | -1.5 (-130) | Under 9.0 (-105) |
*Odds taken 10/06/19.
The Twins have lost 15 consecutive playoff games and 12 in a row to the Yankees.
Odorizzi Overcoming Ailment
Odorizzi hasn’t pitched since September 24th. He exited that game against the Detroit Tigers after experiencing a tight left hamstring while warming up for the seventh inning.
He’s 7-9 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Yankees. His career ERA at Yankee Stadium is 5.40, so that might offer another reason why Twins manager Rocco Baldelli opted to save his ace for Game 3.
Record-wise, Odorizzi was more effective this season away from Target Field than at home. He was 7-3 at home and 8-4 away. His opposition batting average (.244/.223), OPS (.702/.634) and WHIP (1.245/1.165) all skewed more favorably toward his road starts.
Severino Looking Sharp
Although it’s a small sample size, since returning September 17th, Severino has looked just like the guy who went 19-8 in 2018.
Luis Severino on facing the Twins:
"They have a good lineup, but we have a good lineup too. We will see. I faced them in 2017. That wasn't good, but we won that day. I can get revenge for what happened there."
(Severino said the revenge part with a smile)
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) September 29, 2019
He’s brought a high-90s fastball and a nasty slider to the mound, posting a 1-1 record and 1.50 ERA in three appearances.
If there’s a concern about Severino, it’s with his postseason history. He’s 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.565 WHIP in six playoff starts.
That includes a dreadful outing against the Twins in the 2017 AL Wild Card game. Severino didn’t get out of the first inning, recording just one out while allowing four hits, two home runs and three earned runs. He posted an ERA of 81.00 in that appearance and WHIP of 15.00.
Despite Severino’s horrific start, the Yankees rebounded to win 8-4.
Bronx Bombing Twins
These two teams came into this series touting powerful offenses, but it’s the Yankees who’ve been delivering the payload. Through two games, the Bronx Bombers own an 18-6 edge on the scoreboard. They’re slashing .297/.446/.556.
Home runs powered both offenses this season. The Twins set a major-league record with 307 homers. The Yankees finished with 306 dingers.
Both teams have clouted three round-trippers in this series. The difference is that while all three of Minnesota’s home runs were solo shots, the Yankees have a grand slam from Didi Gregorius and solo homers by Brett Gardner and DJ LeMahieu.
Everything Trends Yankees
Even if you choose to ignore the history between the Twins and Yankees, the current numbers are just as demoralizing to Minnesota.
A couple of key points to consider – the Yankees are hitting .307 (8-for-26) with runners in scoring position, while the Twins are batting .062 with RISP (1-for-16).
Remember when Rocco Baldelli called the Twins bullpen one of the best he’s ever seen? pic.twitter.com/v29VakbJkc
— Brandon Mileski (@BrandonMileski) October 5, 2019
New York’s bullpen has allowed one earned run in 8.1 innings (1.08 ERA). Minny’s relievers have surrendered 11 earned runs in 10 innings (9.90 ERA).
The Yanks have swept the Twins three times in the ALDS.
Make it four times.
Pick: New York Yankees (-140)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
