LSU-Alabama Game Props: Tua Favored to Throw More Touchdowns, While Burrow Given the Edge in Passing Yardage

• Alabama dismantled Arkansas, 48-7, in Tuscaloosa behind backup QB Mac Jones
• LSU narrowly beat Auburn, 23-20, in Baton Rouge and had a bye in Week 10
• Alabama shutout LSU last season, winning 29-0 in Baton Rouge

The #1 LSU Tigers (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U) will march into Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon to try and beat the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) for the first time since 2011.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is still a game-time decision at this point, which means Mac Jones might get the call. Jones stepped in well for Tagovailoa, throwing for 235 yards and three touchdowns against Arkansas.

In the Week 11 odds between Alabama and LSU, the oddsmakers have the Crimson Tide favored by 6 with the total set at 65.

There have also been special props released on the game as well, which we’ll take a look at here.

Game Loser Still Makes the CFP?

All odds taken Nov. 4th

Apart from Clemson and Ohio State, Alabama and LSU are easily the best two teams in the country. Both offenses average over 45 points per game, and both defenses allow under 20 points per game.

If LSU loses this game, I believe they will fall to #4 or #5 in the country. However, LSU will still have to play Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. These are all games they should be able to win handily, giving them the ability to sneak into the #4 spot.

If Alabama loses this game, I believe they will fall to #4 or #5 as well. For Alabama to get back into the playoff, it will all depend on their last game against Auburn. However, the loser of this game will most likely not get the chance to play in the SEC Championship game.

Regardless, if this is either team’s one loss, the committee would be laughed at to not include both teams.

Pick: Yes -300

Will Game Winner Win the CFP?

I believe the winner of this game will win the College Football Playoff. In fact, I believe Alabama will win on Saturday and go on to win the National Championship. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with LSU, and the Tigers have not won in Tuscaloosa since 2011.

The last three times Alabama played LSU at home they have scored 38, 30, and 24 points. The Alabama offense has three to four game-changers on the field at all times, and that is excluding the quarterback position.

Nick Saban got embarrassed last year in the CFP by Clemson and it is Tua’s last chance at another championship before going to the NFL, the situation is set up perfectly for Alabama to win their 18th national championship.

Pick: Yes +150

Will the Game Go to Overtime?

The last time these two teams went to overtime was in 2014 when Alabama beat LSU in Baton Rouge. However, the quarterback situation for both teams was very different. Alabama’s quarterback was Blake Sims and LSU’s quarterback was Anthony Jennings, which are both major downgrades from both team’s current quarterbacks.

I believe trying to predict overtime is much too difficult and overall just very unpredictable. Moreover, with how powerful both offenses are, it makes it that much harder to predict, considering their last two overtime games head-to-head have been low scoring.

Pick: No -2500

Who Will Have More Passing TD’s?

Joe Burrow has the edge in passing touchdowns on the season with 30, while Tua Tagovailoa has 27. However, Tua did not play in Alabama’s last two games.

Tua has thrown at least four touchdown passes in every game this season except for one. He also threw two against LSU last season and ran one in on top of that.

Burrow has thrown at least four touchdown passes in five out of his eight games this year. In Week 9 against Auburn, Burrow threw just one touchdown. All of Burrow’s big games have been against leaky defenses, and Alabama’s defense is not bad.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa -140

Who Will Have More Passing Yards?

Burrow has lived up to the gunslinger label this season, throwing for over 300 yards in six out of his eight games. His biggest game of the season came against Texas, where he threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns.

In Week 9 against Auburn, Burrow threw for 321 yards but just one touchdown. The Tigers had five 30-plus yard drives that did not result in a touchdown, which means the drive ended in either a turnover, field goal, or punt. This means Burrow and the Tigers had trouble finishing against Auburn.

This a very possible scenario against Alabama, where Burrow throws for 300-350 yards, but just one or two touchdowns.

Tua does not throw the ball as much, because of the strength of Alabama’s backfield. I can see him throwing for 250-275 yards and three touchdowns against LSU.

Pick: Joe Burrow -150

Will There Be a Lead Change in the 4th Quarter?

Whichever team is leading going into the fourth quarter will win the game. I could see the game being tied early in the fourth quarter, but one team will end up pulling away in the last ten minutes.

The one factor to look at is injuries. Both of these teams are very deep, but Alabama has an edge at quarterback. If Tua cannot finish the game Mac Jones has already proven he can step in without skipping a beat. On LSU’s side, it is unknown.

LSU’s backup, Myles Brennan, has completed 17-for-29 passes for 216 yards, one interception, and no touchdowns. If he gets the call for whatever reason in the game, let alone the fourth quarter, he will quiver against Alabama’s defense.

Pick: No -120