Braves vs Phillies Picks & Odds – Aug 10
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 9, 2021 at 2:43 pm ESTPublished:
- The Philadelphia Phillies are -159 favorites to beat the Atlanta Braves in a Monday 6 pm ET start
- Philly ace Aaron Nola takes the mound. Can he stop the bleeding from a Sunday doubleheader loss?
- See the odds and predictions for the outcome
It’s beginning to look a lot like deja vu all over again for both the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
With an 11-6 slate, the Braves appear to be shifting into gear a drive toward their third successive NL East Division title. Meanwhile, the 4-6 Phillies are scuffling. Their rotation is in shambles. Their hitters aren’t clutch.
At least they have Aaron Nola. The ace of their pitching staff, Nola has won a minimum of 12 games in each of the past three seasons.
He takes the mound Monday (6 p.m. EST), as Philadelphia seeks to rebound after dropping both ends of a Sunday twinbill to Atlanta. Bookmakers have established Philadelphia as -159 favorites in the Phillies vs Braves odds.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies August 10 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +138 | +1.5 (-150) | O 9.0 (+100) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -159 | -1.5 (+125) | U 9.0 (-121) |
Odds taken Aug. 10
Sean Newcomb, 0-1 with a 6.57 earned-run average, goes to the bump for Atlanta, the +138 underdog. The Braves and Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 meetings.
Bats Abandon Phillies
Philadelphia scored just two runs while dropping a pair to the Braves on Sunday. Atlanta took the opener 5-2 and crushed the Phillies 8-0 in the nightcap.
Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, and JT Realmuto have been the lifeblood of the Phillies offense thus far in 2020 — they're off to excellent starts.
Across 8 games:
Bryce Harper – .292/.469/.583, 2 HR
Didi Gregorius – .321/.367/.536, 2 HR
JT Realmuto – .333/.400/.778, 4 HR— Alex Carr (@AlexCarrMLB) August 9, 2020
Stranding runners is becoming a fanatical pursuit for Philly. Sunday, they went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position through the two games. In 10 games this season, they’re 14-for-72 (.194) with RISP.
Manufacturing runs isn’t something that the Phillies export to the diamond. To date this season, 22 of Philadelphia’s 42 runs (52.4%) have been scored via the home run.
Nola Is Mr. Reliable
Don’t be fooled by the 0-1 record and 3.97 ERA next to Nola’s name. He’s been on this season.
Phillies pitchers with 13 10-strikeout games in their first 130 career games: Aaron Nola and Cole Hamels
— Matt Breen (@matt_breen) August 6, 2020
In his last start, a 3-1 loss to the powerful New York Yankees, Nola struck out a career-high 12 batters. He had overpowering stuff, generating 19 swings and misses and 18 called strikes against Yankees hitters.
Braves Career Stats vs Nola
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 20 | 2 | 4 | .350 |
| Johan Camargo | 6 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| Charlie Culberson | 4 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Adam Duvall | 18 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Tyler Flowers | 9 | 0 | 0 | .222 |
| Freddie Freeman | 42 | 1 | 9 | .238 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 8 | 0 | 0 | .375 |
| Ender Inciarte | 35 | 1 | 3 | .200 |
| Nick Markakis | 35 | 2 | 5 | .286 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 25 | 2 | 6 | .280 |
| Austin Riley | 8 | 2 | 2 | .250 |
| Dansby Swanson | 20 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 5 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
Nola finished third in 2018 NL Cy Young Award voting. In 18 career starts against the Braves, he’s 10-5 with a 2.94 ERA.
In two starts this season for Nola, the total has gone under 9.0 each time. The average total in his two appearances is 5.5 runs, making that under 9.0 at odds of -121 look like a very appealing play.
Newcomb’s New World
Newcomb is transitioning from the bullpen back to the rotation this season. In 2019, he made just four starts. He’ll equal that total when he takes the hill on Monday.
Sean Newcomb recaps his latest outing (4.2IP, 2R) ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/mAJLiXL9T4
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) August 6, 2020
In 2018, though, he was part of the Atlanta starting rotation. Newcomb went 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 31 games (30 starts). He allowed just 137 hits in 164 innings and walked only 81 while 160 striking out 160.
Phillies Career Stats vs Newcomb
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Bruce | 8 | 0 | 0 | .125 |
| Kyle Garlick | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Phil Gosselin | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Didi Gregorius | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Bryce Harper | 9 | 2 | 5 | .333 |
| Adam Haseley | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4 | 1 | 2 | .250 |
| Scott Kingery | 4 | 0 | 0 | .250 |
| Andrew Knapp | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Roman Quinn | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| JT Realmuto | 21 | 0 | 0 | .095 |
| Jean Segura | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Neil Walker | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
He’s struggled with his command so far in 2020, allowing nine runs on 14 hits through 12.1 innings. Newcomb has issued four walks and fanned nine.
Braves WIN!
Final: #Braves 8, Phillies 0.#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/tinQN0H1B3
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 9, 2020
Although he’s yet to go five innings in any start this season, Newcomb showed improvement in his last outing, He went 4.2 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. He threw 92 pitches and induced just seven swinging strikes, a sure sign that he isn’t fooling the hitters.
With Mike Soroka (Achilles) and Cole Hamels (triceps) out, the Braves have little choice but to send Newcomb to the mound every five days, though.
Take A Phillies Flyer
Nola is exactly the elixir the Phillies need to gain a split in this four-game series. He’s struck out 19 and walked only one in 11.1 innings of work this season.
Aaron Nola, 93mph Fastball and 80mph Curveball, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/nAvHHy9mly
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 6, 2020
Nola shows a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. However, the Phillies have lost his last nine starts.
That streak of bad luck should end against Newcomb and the Braves.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-159)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
