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2020 French Open Men’s Singles Odds & Predictions to Win Every Quarter

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Tennis

Updated Sep 28, 2020 · 3:46 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal is looking for a 20th career major title. Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
  • The French Open begins Sunday in Paris
  • Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are heavy favorites to win their quarters and be in the semifinals
  • Betting value is out there when you break down each quarter and examine the players carefully

Rescheduled from May, the French Open gets going on Monday after being postponed because of COVID-19. There are a lot of uncertain elements this year. Roland Garros is using new balls, has a roof on Philippe-Chatrier, and the number of fans allowed will be severely limited.

Rafael Nadal did not travel to America for the US Open, but will seek to earn his record-setting 13th French Open title. He has won three straight. Nadal is looking for a 20th career major championship, which would tie Roger Federer for most all-time.

By looking at each quarter as its own competition, there is value to be found by choosing where to side with favorites, and where to shoot for a price.

2020 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #1

Player Odds
Novak Djokovic -225
Matteo Berrettini +750
Pablo Carreno Busta +1400
Roberto Bautista Agut +1600
Cristian Garin +2000
Karen Khachanov +2000
Hubert Hurkacz +3300
Jan-Lennard Struff +3300
Guido Pella +4000
Richard Gasquet +4000

All odds as of Sep. 25th at Bet365

Novak Djokovic Isn’t Unbeatable But He Is Tough

We’ll never know whether Novak Djokovic, a heavy favorite at the US Open, would have scooped up his 18th major because of a bizarre situation that ended in his disqualification.

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Djokovic rebounded by winning the French Open warm-up tournament on clay in Rome for a fifth time. He certainly may be eliminated before the semis in Paris, but is clearly the best player in this part of the draw. That said, he was knocked out in the quarters in 2017 and 2018 at Roland Garros.

If not Djokovic, Roberto Bautista Agut is consistently solid. He always shows up and can pick up the pieces if there is an upset.

Cristian Garin has never made a major run at a major, but he has played very well on clay this year.

2020 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #2

Player Odds
Stefanos Tsitsipas +350
Daniil Medvedev +450
Andrey Rublev +600
Denis Shapovalov +600
Filip Krajinovic +1000
Kevin Anderson +2200
Dusan Lajovic +2500
Sam Querrey +5500
Marton Fucsovics +5000
Nikoloz Basilashvili +5000

This Is Where a Longshot May Lurk

There is nothing in sports betting better than a vulnerable favorite. Understanding chalk to lean on, and others to exploit is a great way to consider your options. The second quarter appears obvious, let’s find a price.

Stefanos Tsitsipas lost a classic to Stan Wawrinka last year at Roland Garros in the fourth round. It was his deepest pursuit in a major.

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The emotional loss also led to a tailspin. So what’s new with Tsitsipas? He just lost a heartbreaker to Borna Ćorić in the third round at the US Open. Is a letdown next?

There is no question Daniil Medvedev looks like he has a very bright future. He reached the semis in New York, and his top five ranking is justified. His next win at the French Open will be his first. Two wins would boost confidence, taking the quarter isn’t overly likely.

Andrey Rublev is in the same boat as Medvedev. He is young, talented, playing well, and has never won a French Open match.

Denis Shapovalov is now ranked number 10, coming off his best major, a quarterfinal appearance in New York, and reached the Rome semis on clay. He makes a lot of sense.

If you are going for a bigger price, Dusan Lajovic may be a horse for the course. He likes clay, is playing well, and may have found the softest quarter of his major career.

2020 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #3

Player Odds
Dominic Thiem -138
Diego Schwartzman +700
Stan Wawrinka +1000
Casper Ruud +1200
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1200
Borna Coric +1400
Gael Monfils +1400
Andy Murray +1800
Alexander Bublik +4000
Taylor Fritz +4000

To Thiem, or Not to Thiem?

Dominic Thiem is not Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal but he is playing well. Thiem won the United States Open, his first major title, after knocking on the door in recent years.

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Thiem has reached the Final in Paris two straight years and was in the semis the previous two tournaments. After playing a lot in New York, he opted to skip warm-up tournaments for the French Open. If he has the strength remaining, he’ll be very tough at a discounted price because his name doesn’t reverberate like the two all-time greats in the field.

Diego Schwartzman beat Nadal during what may be his best career effort in Rome. He’s a viable option if Thiem falters.

Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray meet in the first round. If you think the quarter is there for the taking, one of the proven veterans is an interesting price.

2020 French Open Odds to Win Quarter #4

Player Odds
Rafael Nadal -450
Alexander Zverev +650
David Goffin +2000
Alex De Minaur +2500
Fabio Fognini +2800
John Isner +2800
Jannik Sinner +3300
Kei Nishikori +3300
Benoit Paire +6600
Federico Coria +8000

Try to Beat the 800-Pound Gorilla?

Nadal has played in 15 consecutive French Opens, winning a dozen of them. He is obviously the favorite, but perhaps his loss in Rome gives us reason to believe a small investment elsewhere is reasonable?

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The three times Nadal has faltered in Paris he failed to make the semifinals. At -450 his implied probability is just under 82-percent to reach the semis. While that seems reasonable, who could upend him?

Alexander Zverev dropped a five-set final to Thiem in the US Open. He made the semis at the Australian Open this year, and each of the last two years has been in the French quarters. Zverez has clay-court tournament victories on his resume.

Italian veteran Fabio Fognini does his best work on clay. He has been to the fourth round at Roland Garros in back-to-back years and reached the quarterfinals in 2011.

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