Astros (Valdez) vs Rays (Snell) Game 6 Picks and Odds – Oct. 16

• Despite successive losses in Games 4 and 5, the Tampa Bay Rays are the -136 favorites to win Game 6 of the ALCS on Friday
• After back-to-back wins, the Astros are +115 underdogs in Game 6 of the ALCS. They’ve been the betting underdog in all six games of the series
• Blake Snell goes for Tampa Bay against Houston’s Framber Valdez in a rematch of the Game 1 starters

The Houston Astros are the Donald Trump of the MLB postseason. People either love them or hate them. There’s no middle ground.

After the team got caught illegally using electronic devices to steal signals, a constituency of baseball fans view Houston’s MLB team as nothing more than a gang of cheaters and scoundrels.

Following a 29-31 regular season, no one expected the Astros to be this close to going back to the World Series for the third time in four years. Yet here they are.

Houston staved off elimination for the second straight night, this time on a ninth-inning Carlos Correa walk-off home run.

Nonetheless, for the sixth successive game of the ALCS, Tampa Bay will take the diamond as the betting favorites at -136. Lefty Blake Snell, the Game 1 winner, returns to the hill for the Rays.

The Astros, +115 underdogs, counter with Framber Valdez, their Game 1 starter.

Astros vs Rays Game 6 Odds

Odds taken Oct. 16 at PointsBet

All games in the series are being played back to back at the neutral site of Petco Park in San Diego. The Rays own home-field advantage and will be afforded the last at-bat in Games 6 and 7.

The time of the first pitch for Game 6 is 6:07 pm ET.

Pitching In

Snell is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the postseason. Both his ERA (3.24) and WHIP (1.24) are below his career averages.

He’s worked at least five innings in all three of his playoff starts. The southpaw checked the Astros on six hits over five innings in Game 1 as Tampa Bay won 2-1.

Blake Snell, Filthy 86mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/8tJfvUwpHV

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 12, 2020

Snell kept Houston off the scoreboard following a first-inning solo home run by Jose Altuve. Through his three starts, Snell has struck out 15 in 15.2 innings.

He’ll be going on his normal four day’s rest but even a well-rested Snell has yet to make it out of the sixth inning in any of his 14 starts this season. Snell averaged 11.34 strikeouts per nine innings during the regular season.

Valdez Must Regain Control

In Game 1, lefty Valdez didn’t display his usual command of his repertoire of pitches. He walked four batters in six innings, a season-high.

The eventual winning run reached base by bases on balls. Valdez, 26, averaged 2.0 walks per nine innings during the regular season. His WHIP was 1.118.

Framber Valdez, Filthy 80mph Curveball…and Sword ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/1JCOxl5RsK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 11, 2020

During the postseason, he’s posted a 2.00 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 18 innings. Working the playoffs for the first time in his big-league career, Valdez is 2-1. 

He’s allowed three homers in his last 13 innings of work. Valdez surrendered just five long balls over the course of 70.2 innings during regular-season play.

Randy’s Rainbows

The Astros have won consecutive 4-3 decisions to stave off elimination. They’ve also been able to overcome the launching pad that is Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena in the batter’s box.

Arozarena drilled another home run in Game 5, his sixth of the postseason. That tied the MLB record for homers by a rookie in the playoffs.

Randy Arozarena once hit an INFIELD TRIPLE. Didn't even know that was a real thing until now. #RaysUp pic.twitter.com/JT2KTaU36p

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) October 8, 2020

Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria also hit six homers as a rookie in the 2008 MLB playoffs. The Rays made their only World Series appearance that fall.

Added to the big-league roster on August 30, Arozarena is batting .417 in the playoffs. He’s clouted a .892 slugging percentage and shows an OPS of 1.357.