Opening 2021 Pac-12 Championship Games Odds — Oregon 3.5-Point Underdogs vs Utah in Vegas

• No. 11 Oregon is a 3.5-point underdog
• No. 18 Utah beat the Ducks 38-7 two weeks ago
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 11 Oregon (10-2, 7-2plus Pac-12 North) is a 3.5-point underdog against Utah in the Pac-12 championship game Friday at 8 pm ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev.

No. 18 Utah (9-3, 8-1 Pac-12 South) clinched the South division title by hammering Oregon 38-7 at home two weeks ago, knocking the then-No. 4 Ducks out of a potential CFP spot.

Oregon vs Utah Opening Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Nov. 28

Oregon is the two-time defending league champion, winning in 2020 because Washington was unable to play in the title game due to because Covid-19 complications.

Utah its playing in its third Pac-12 championship game in four years. The Utes won the South in 2018 and 2019 but lost the title games to Washington in 2018 and the Ducks in 2019.

Old Friends

Oregon and Utah have been here before. The No. 13-ranked Ducks covered as a 6.5-point favorite in a dominating 37-15 victory over the No. 5 Utes in the 2019 Pac-12 championship game in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.  Utah was 11-1 coming in, but the loss eliminated them from CFP Final Four consideration.

The Ducks had 432 yards total offense and 239 yards rushing in the 37-15 victory against a Utah defense that entered leading the FBS in fewest rushing yards given up per game (56.3) and had held 11 of its 12 previous opponents to  less than 100 yards.

The Utes lost 10-3 to Washington in the 2018 title game generating only 188 yards in total offense. The only touchdown was scored on an interception return.

Last Meeting

Utah dominated the Ducks in a 38-7 victory Nov. 20, limiting the Ducks to season-lows in total offense (294 yards) and rushing yards  (63) while running up an 11-minute edge in time of possession with Butkus Award finalist linebacker Devin Lloyd playing a big role.

The Utes had 208 yards rushing and four touchdowns, both the most given up by Oregon this year, and the Utes led 28-0 at halftime with two touchdowns in the final 27 seconds of the half on Thomas’ 4-yard run and Britain Covey’s 76-yard punt return as time expired.

Utah Embraces Change

The Utes turned their season around when Cam Rising took over at quarterback. Rising made his first start when Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer left the program in the fourth week of the season, after being benched for Rising in the second half of a 33-31 triple-overtime loss at San Diego State.

Rising threw for 159 yards and three touchdowns in relief against the Aztecs and has started ever since, leading the offense to an average of 37.2 points per game. He has thrown for 2,109 yards and 17 touchdowns with three interceptions and rushed for 346 yards and five touchdowns.

This year has again reminded me that two of the most underrated and excellent coaches in our sport are Kyle Whittingham @Utah_Football and Mike Gundy @CowboyFB

They are each unapologetically themselves and don't give a crap what is said or written on this site!! Love it!

— Joel Klatt (@joelklatt) November 23, 2021

Rising, the 2020 starter before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in the season-opener against USC, completed 14 of 23 passes for 179 and three touchdowns with one interception in a 28-13 home victory over Colorado last Friday.

A Ducks’ Must-Win

Oregon took a 31-9 lead over Oregon State on Saturday and outlasted the Beavers 38-29 in their first must-win game of this two-game stretch.

Had the Ducks lost, Washington State would have been the Pac-12 North champion by virtue of its advantage in a three-team tiebreaker with Oregon and Oregon State.

Ducks quarterback Anthony Brown completed 23 of 28 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns and Travis Dye had 99 yards and two touchdowns against the Beavers. Brown was 17 of 35 for 231 yards against the Utes two weeks ago, and Dye had 29 yards rushing.

Pac-12 Futility

The winner of this game will play in the Rose Bowl because neither will finish high enough in the CFP rankings to make the Final Four.

The Pac-12 has not played a team in the CFP playoff in five consecutive seasons, since Washington (12-1) lost a 24-7 decision to Alabama as the fourth seed in the 2016-17 semifinals in Atlanta.

Oregon is the last Pac-12 team to make the CFP championship, losing to Ohio State 42-20 in the initial CFP title game in the 2014-15 season. The second-seeded Ducks finished 13-2.

By the Numbers

The series has been pretty even. Oregon is 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 ATS since the Utes joined the Pac-12 in 2013. The game has gone over the total in six of eight. The 45 points scored in the previous game this season is the fewest in those eight.

Beating a team twice in three weeks is a tough task. Expect the money to move toward the underdog as the week continues.