Political Odds: Republicans Play Vote-A-Rama With Health Care

Brain cancer be damned!

Despite having been diagnosed just a few days ago, John McCain returned to the Senate to give a rousing, impassioned speech, urging Washington to put partisan politics aside and return to the good ol’ days when Congress worked together and actually got things done.

But actions speak louder than words, and McCain once again toed the party line by voting to advance a health-care bill that was crafted in the most secretive, most partisan way possible. He had the chance to single-handedly squash a bill he had repeatedly criticized, but instead put his party ahead of his principles.

Now, the Senate will convene to debate a bill that hardly even exists. With no real plan to repeal or replace Obamacare, the Senate will be forced to build their plane while it’s in the air, holding what is called a “vote-a-rama”, where a flurry of amendments are thrown onto the Senate floor and voted on like it’s a rapid-fire game show.

Unable to agree on a replacement plan, the Senate Republicans are turning their attention to the “repeal” part. A clean break appeals to hardliners like Rand Paul and Mike Lee, but doesn’t sit well with more moderate Republicans. Instead, they’ll probably opt for a “skinny repeal,” which will scrap only the most controversial parts of Obamacare.

That could include components like the individual mandate and employer mandate, as well as some highly politicized issues like funding for Planned Parenthood. We don’t know exactly what will be in the “skinny repeal,” but a CBO projection requested by the Democrats estimated that it could leave 16 million Americans becoming uninsured and increase premiums by 20-percent.

The Republicans have the numbers to see it through, even without a single Democrat lending a helping hand. The question is whether they can find something that works for both the conservative and moderate wings of the party.

Senate leader Mitch McConnell would like to pass something — anything — before the August recess. For now, we can only speculate over what the bill will look like. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats know what they’ll be voting on yet.

After that, it’s back to the House. And that’s a whole other story.

HEALTH-CARE ODDS

Odds the Senate votes on a repeal/replace plan by July 28: 2/3

Odds the Senate passes a replacement plan by July 28: 9/1

Odds the Senate repeals Obamacare by July 28: 3/2

Odds McCain votes for repeal/replace plan: 11/9

Odds any Democrat votes for repeal/replace plan: 99/1

Odds the Obamacare employer mandate is repealed in 2017: 11/9

Odds the Obamacare individual mandate is repealed in 2017: 3/2

Odds Planned Parenthood is defunded in 2017: 7/3

Over/Under number of additional uninsured Americans after repeal/replacement: 15.5 million