Arkansas vs Penn State Outback Bowl Odds, Spread and Predictions

• The Arkansas Razorbacks are 2-point favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions in the 2022 Outback Bowl
• #22 Arkansas is 8-4 on the season compared to Penn State’s 7-5 mark. Penn State is one of the best at 7th in the nation when it comes to points allowed (16.8 per game)
• See the odds, breakdown, and betting advice below

The Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4, 4-4 SEC) are poised to keep the momentum rolling after winning four out of five games to close out the regular season. That was punctuated by an easy 34-17 win over Missouri. Meanwhile, nothing comes easy for Penn State – but their defense tends to bail them out every so often.  Penn State went just 4-5 (7-5 overall) within the Big Ten and kept losing close games.

Arkansas and Penn State have never faced each other.

Arkansas is primed after their late-season run. Even with their record, the Razorbacks are a two-point favorite on a neutral site. Also, the Penn State Nittany Lions are carrying an astounding 82% of the betting money ATS but just 12% of the handle on the moneyline. The Razorbacks are 7-4-1 against the spread this season as they face off against Penn State on Saturday afternoon.

Arkansas vs Penn State Odds

Odds as of December 30th at DraftKings

Saturday afternoon’s game is set for a noon ET kickoff at Raymond James Stadium from Tampa Bay, Florida. Increasingly sunny conditions and temperatures in the lower 80’s are forecasted. ESPN is carrying the broadcast. After opening around 50, the over has slid back to 48 due to several key opt-outs.

Arkansas Has Makings of Dangerous Program

The Arkansas Razorbacks nearly beat Alabama last month losing by just a touchdown on the road to a Playoff staple. Yes, their defense may have issues and two of their better players have opted out of the Outback Bowl but more of their core players are playing. Losing Treylon Burks and Tre Smith hurts but K.J. Jefferson and a balanced rushing attack is still more than capable of moving the ball.

With a decent defense (46th in points against), Arkansas has a chance to nab win number nine.

Sometimes we forget that this is Sam Pittman’s first time leading a team into a bowl game. Coach has done an incredible job handling all the “firsts” that have been thrown at him as a head coach pic.twitter.com/aNWTue2Onj

— Steve Sullivan (@sully7777) December 30, 2021

The defensive line has been okay but it is the Arkansas offensive line that will be key in controlling the clock and moving the ball. Then, there is Jefferson who is a dual-threat that can run and throw extremely well. Can Penn State contain him is the question? They did have some issues late in the season against mobile quarterbacks.

In scoring differential, Arkansas scored 7.5 points per game more than they allowed which ranked among the top third in the nation.

Can Penn State Win a Close Game?

Penn State has enough problems winning close games. They lost four games in the last seven by four points or less. It is a team that has one of the best defenses in the nation but cannot score when it counts. The Nittany Lions also have several high-profile opt-outs including Jaquan Brisker and Jahan Dotson. Dotson is a first-round caliber wide receiver and Brisker is an All-American talent anchoring the defense.

Worse, Brent Pry has left town to take on the job at Virginia Tech. That is not a good omen.

"If you come here you have to understand the great ones that you'll be compared to”

New @PennStateFball defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is not backing down from trying to carry the legacy of "LBU" https://t.co/m0h5fs3rSq

— The Daily Collegian (@DailyCollegian) December 17, 2021

Transitions like this do not seem to end well as witnessed by Virginia Tech’s fold-up job on Wednesday versus Maryland. Manny Diaz faces an uphill battle with several regulars out for Saturday’s game.

Arkansas vs Penn State Betting Trends and Pick

We will say it again. There is no history between these two teams.

Arkansas Razorbacks football covered the spread again

— RT (@Austin431) November 27, 2021

The number that still gets a good deal of traction is that Arkansas started to cover spreads towards the end of the season. Penn State just had issues in close games. Sean Clifford can keep this close but the Razorbacks will be able to throw the ball against a depleted Nittany Lions defense.

The spread is enticing enough to take the Razorbacks as they take advantage of a Penn State team that could run out of gas.

• Picks: Arkansas -2 (-110), Over 48 (-110)