Mariners vs Astros Game 1 Odds, Lines & Spread

• Houston is a massive -215 moneyline favorite in the Mariners vs Astros odds for Game 1 of the ALDS on Tuesday (Oct. 11) at 3:37 pm ET
• The Mariners are expected to trot out Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA), while the Astros will hand the ball to ace Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA)
• Below, find the complete Mariners vs Astros ALDS Game 1 odds, plus analysis and a betting prediction

The Seattle Mariners have been exceeding expectations all year. They did so just to make the playoffs, and then they continued the trend in the Wild Card Round. Seattle swept the Blue Jays on the road, highlighted by a wild 10-9 victory in Game 2, where they erased a seven run deficit.

Now comes their biggest challenge to date. A best-of-five series with division rival, and AL juggernaut Houston. Oddsmakers were down on the M’s in both of their Wild Card contests, and they’re siding against them once more in Tuesday’s series opener versus the hometown Astros.

Mariners vs Astros Game 1 Odds

Odds as of October 10th at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code.

Houston opened up as -215 moneyline favorites in a game that features a total of 6.5. The Astros are -220 to win this series and advance in the MLB playoff bracket, with Seattle coming back as a +185 underdog.

First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 3:37 pm ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, with clear skies and 84 degree game time temperatures on deck.

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Seattle vs Houston Probable Pitchers

Houston, who enters the series with the second shortest World Series odds, will give the ball to ace Justin Verlander. The overwhelming favorite in the AL Cy Young odds is fresh one of his best seasons ever, despite being 39 years of age.

Verlander led all MLB starters in ERA and WHIP, and finished second with 18 wins. He allowed two runs or less in each of his final six starts, and in 22 of 28 starts overall.

Justin Verlander's 1.75 ERA was the lowest among qualified MLB pitchers this season.

It's the lowest ERA posted by an AL pitcher in a 162-game season since Pedro Martínez had a 1.74 ERA in his Cy Young season of 2000 for the Red Sox. pic.twitter.com/UJ7WX26emf

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 6, 2022

Verlander was 5-1 in six starts against the Mariners this season, yielding one run or less in each of his final three outings against them. He lasted at least 7 innings in those three starts, surrendering three total runs, while posting a 26-to-5 strikeout-to-walk rate.

For his career, Verlander has held current Seattle hitters to a .214 average over 248 at-bats, with a sub .270 OBP.

Gilbert vs Verlander Stats

The Mariners are expected to counter with Logan Gilbert. They burned their top two pitchers Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray in the Wild Card Round, and they won’t be ready until Games 2 and 3 of this series respectively.

Gilbert is a more than capable number three, and is coming off a brilliant sophomore season. He posted 13 wins, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his final eight starts. Furthermore, he had plenty of success against the potent Astros lineup, something few pitchers can lay claim to.

Logan Gilbert vs HOU in 2022: 4 starts, 2.52 ERA, 22 K, 8 BB, 1.080 WHIP

1st start: 7 IP, 4 hits, 5 K – 6-0 win in SEA
2nd: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 hits, 3 K, 3 BB – 6-3 win at HOU
3rd: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 8 K, 1 BB – 3-1 loss in SEA
4th: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 6 K, 2 BB – 4-2 loss at HOU

— Brandon Gustafson (@TheBGustafson) October 9, 2022

Gilbert had a 2.52 ERA over 25 innings of work versus Houston. He lasted at least 6 innings in each of his four starts, allowing two runs or less three times, while striking out 22. The only pitcher with more strikeouts against the Astros this season was Shohei Ohtani.

Mariners vs Astros Betting Trends

Shutting down the Houston lineup again, in their park, will be a tall order for Gilbert. Only Toronto and the Yankees averaged more runs per game than the Astros in the AL, while only New York slugged more homers.

This a slightly watered down version of past Houston postseason lineups. Carlos Correa left for Minnesota in his prime, while Jose Altuve is getting a little long in the tooth. Nevertheless, the team has plenty of pop with Yordan Alvarez leading the way. The 25-year-old slugged 37 home runs this year, and ranked second in MLB in OPS.

Houston BBWAA chapter’s Astros season award winners

MVP: Yordan Alvarez
Pitcher of the Year: Justin Verlander
Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Peña
Darryl Kile Good Guy Award: Martín Maldonado
Fred Hartman Long and Meritorious Service Award: Marian Harper

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) October 8, 2022

Seattle did an excellent job of containing the Astros bats during the regular season however, holding them to 3.84 runs per game, nearly a full run less than their season average.

The Mariners were an average hitting team in 2022, ranking in the middle of the pack in scoring, slugging and OPS. They proved in the Wild Card Round however, they’re capable of big numbers. The Mariners scored 14 runs in just two games versus the Blue Jays, pounding 20 hits.

Julio Rodriguez, the favorite to win AL Rookie of the year, headlines the group with an impressive power and speed combination. He smacked 28 home runs, while swiping a team-high 25 bags.

Houston, a problem is coming.

Julio Rodriguez is due. Mariners early HR coming. Stay tuned. https://t.co/D2O6Nwxaf7

— Seattle Mariners ON Tap (@MarinersONTap) October 10, 2022

Houston  neutralized the M’s during the regular season though, holding Seattle to 3.4 runs per game and a .219 average over 19 meetings.

SEA vs HOU – Last 10 Results

Mariners vs Astros Prediction

Just 34% of the over/under bets as of Monday evening are on under 6.5 for Game 1. Those wagers however, make up 42% of the money bet on the total. That indicates larger bettors, who are typically sharp, are betting the under, and we tend to agree.

We’re going to take it a step further and fade the Mariners bats. Verlander has been nearly flawless against them all season, while Houston also boasts an incredibly strong bullpen. Astros relievers posted an MLB best 2.80 ERA, and a 7.6 WAR.

The Astros have held Seattle to two runs or less in six of their past 10 meetings, and in five of Verlander’s six starts.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Under 2.5 Runs (-120)