Rafael Nadal vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals

• Rafael Nadal is rarely the underdog in any match not involving Novak Djokovic. But he is on Tuesday
• Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime is a slight favorite, in a must-win ATP Finals pool match between the two
• Read on to see if the 36-year-old from Mallorca can pull off this unusual “upset” in our Nadal vs Auger-Aliassime picks

Rafael Nadal and Félix Auger-Aliassime are two of the three top seeds in their pool group at this week’s ATP Finals.

But they are facing each other on the second day of play in their group – which means both lost their opening match.

Rafael Nadal vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds

Odds as of Nov. 14 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Nitto ATP Finals

And the way Nadal played in his first match against No. 8 seed Taylor Fritz, all hopes are in play for 22-year-old Auger-Aliassime to pull off his first career win against Nadal.

He probably doesn’t feel like the favorite against the all-time Grand Slam titles leader. But this time, he is.

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Nadal Well-Beaten by Fritz

Nadal has played little since the US Open. And he’s well known for getting most of his confidence from repetition – from hours and hours on the practice court.

Lately, he hasn’t had that luxury.

The result was an opening-round loss at the Paris Masters to Tommy Paul. And then, he was soundly beaten Sunday in Turin both by the big weapons of Taylor Fritz, and his own errors.

Fritz won 7-6 (3), 6-1.

Nadal did well enough on his first serve, but he was sub-par with his second. And he didn’t create a single break-point chance against Fritz’s big serve.

Rafael Nadal vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-Head

For Auger-Aliassime, who came into Turin on a roll, playing on the indoor hard courts that are his best surface, it came down to a tennis matchup in his 7-6 (4), 6-4 loss to Casper Ruud.

Good Serving, Error-Prone Groundstrokes

Ruud also played far from his best. But his base-level game style helps him on those off-days.

There was just one break-point chance in the match, on the Norwegian’s side. And he converted it in the second set.

Auger-Aliassime served well. But he just made far too many errors and never seemed to loosen up throughout the nearly two-hour match.

Hopefully, he’s gotten his ATP Finals rookie nerves out of the way.

Nadal vs Auger-Aliassime Match History

First Clash Off the Clay

Not many players have taken Nadal to a fifth set in his backyard, at the French Open.

But Auger-Aliassime did that last June.

It was a huge opportunity to make a major statement, but he couldn’t quite get over the finish line. Beyond that disappointment, the 22-year-old has to think he has a major shot at the Mallorcan, on a surface that suits him to a tee and doesn’t suit Nadal.

Also, it comes at a time when Nadal clearly is beatable. Auger-Aliassime doesn’t have the same serve velocity as Fritz does. But he’s not far, and when it’s on his serve is every bit as effective.

Rafael Nadal vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction

According to the official statistics, Auger-Aliassime went 13-for-13 against Ruud at the net, in defeat.

If he doesn’t find himself keeping up with Nadal from the ground, the Canadian needs to look to that Plan B and let the chips fall where they may.

His problem is he needs to shift his go–to pattern, which is to send most balls to his opponent’s backhand with his crosscourt backhand and inside-out forehand.

But with Nadal being a lefty, that pattern goes into his biggest strength.

So Auger-Aliassime needs to pull out the down-the-line backhand he has used, on occasion, to great effect. That takes confidence he may or may not have this week, and against a legend.

This match may well come down to who plays less poorly on the day.

Best Bet: Over 0.5 Tiebreaks (-109)