Thunder vs Heat Predictions & Odds (Jan. 10)

• Miami is a 4.5-point favorite over OKC in the Thunder vs Heat odds on Tuesday
• Kyle Lowry (knee) is out for Miami, while Tyler Herro (Achilles) and Bam Adebayo (wrist) are questionable
• Below you’ll find the latest Thunder vs Heat odds, injury updates and best bets

When it comes to injuries, the Heat (21-20, 11-9 home) just can’t catch a break. Miami’s injury report stretches further than almost any team’s in the league, and they could be down multiple key players on Tuesday when they host the Thunder (18-22, 5-13 away).

OKC enters play much healthier, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from leaning in Miami’s direction in the NBA odds.

Thunder vs Heat Odds

Odds as of January 9 at Barstool. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Thunder vs Heat game.

The Heat opened up as 4.5-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 224.5. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET inside FTX Arena, and is the first game of a nationwide TNT doubleheader.

Thunder vs Heat Betting Trends

Prior to Sunday’s game with the Nets, Miami was facing a similar conundrum. Tyler Herro (back), Bam Adebayo (thigh) and Caleb Martin (quad) were all serious question marks. The trio makes up three-fifths of their starting lineup, and while Martin wound up sitting, both Herro and Adebayo were able to play.

However, neither escaped the game without injury. Both are questionable again with different injuries and it’s unclear whether they will be in Tuesday’s NBA lineups. Herro is now dealing with Achilles soreness, while Adebayo has a painful wrist contusion. To make matters worse, Martin has already been ruled out for Tuesday, as has starting point guard Kyle Lowry. That potentially leaves the Heat without four starters.

Kyle Lowry (left knee discomfort) now listed as out for Tuesday for Heat vs. Thunder.

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) January 10, 2023

Miami will also be without Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic, who are both dealing with long term injuries, while reserve guard Gabe Vincent is probable.

The Heat’s injuries are likely going to prolong their offensive woes, as the team has been struggling at that end of the court all season. Miami ranks 24th in offensive rating, and hasn’t eclipsed 110 points in four straight games.

Defense is what has kept them afloat, but they’ll take a major hit in their own end without Lowry and potentially Adebayo as well.

OKC meanwhile, is still firmly entrenched in rebuilding mode, but now have a legit superstar to build around. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken the leap from good to great this season, averaging 31 points per game. That’s the fourth highest mark in the league, and he’s fresh off 33 and 30 point nights respectively in back-to-back wins over the Mavericks and Wizards.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season.

30.9 ppg
5.6 apg
4.8 rpg
1.6 spg
1.1 bpg
50/34/91 splits
61.7 ts%

Only player averaging 30 ppg, 5 apg, 1 spg, and 1 bpg this season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XkJ2mGEClG

— Automatic (@automaticnba) January 9, 2023

SGA’s play has earned him longshot status in the NBA MVP odds, and he’s helped lead the Thunder to some very impressive victories this season. In the last three weeks alone, OKC has beaten both Memphis and Dallas, the second and fourth seeds in the West. They also blew out Boston, aka the best team in the NBA, by 37 points last week.

Statistically, OKC ranks slightly below average in offensive rating, but 11th in defensive rating. They find a way to stay close in games regardless of the opponent, and have been one of the best teams at covering the spread.

Thunder vs Heat Prediction

The Thunder are 24-16 ATS, the second best mark in the league behind only Indiana. They’re 19-10 against the number as underdogs, including 10-5 on the road when catching points. They faced Miami earlier this season, when the Heat were much healthier, losing by two but covering the three-point spread.

NBA Best ATS Records

Miami on the other hand, has been abysmal against the spread. The Heat have the second lowest cover rate of any team in the NBA. They’ve been especially bad as a favorite going 9-17-2 ATS, and at home when laying points it’s been a nightmare. Miami is 4-12-1 against the spread in their own building, failing to cover by an average of 5.1 points.

Given the Heat’s depleted roster, and the uncertain statuses of some of their key players, bank on OKC getting another cover.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-110)