Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – Stuttgart Open Final
- World No. 1 Iga Swiaek faces world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in Sunday’s Stuttgart Open final
- It’s a rematch of last year’s final, won by Swiatek 6-2, 6-2
- Swiatek is the favorite; we break down the match and look for betting value
Iga Swiatek met Aryna Sabalenka in the 2022 Stuttgart Open singles final. A year later, they meet again (Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT).
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Iga Swiatek (POL) | -3.5 (-130) | -260 | O 21.5 (-112) |
| [2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | +3.5 (-104) | +188 | U 21.5 (-118) |
At -260 odds, No. 1 seed Swiatek is a solid favorite in the Swiatek vs Sabalenka semifinal at the Stuttgart Open Sunday. Sabalenka is the underdog at +188 odds. Swiatek vs Sabalenka odds as of April 22 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Swiatek a Strong Favorite
The early odds on the Stuttgart Open final have tipped Swiatek to win, likely based on her 4-2 head-to-head record vs Sabalenka.
But the fact that odds of Swiatek winning this one are virtually the same as the odds were for Sabalenka beating an outmatched Anastasia Potapova in Saturday’s semifinal are rather surprising.
Sabalenka is the Australian Open champion and has been having an outstanding 2022. And it’s her third consecutive Stuttgart Open final.
Notably, it’s the first WTA final between the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked players since Halep vs Wozniacki at the 2018 Australian Open, and the first on clay since Serena Williams took on Maria Sharapova in the 2013 French Open final.
No Contest for Sabalenka Over Potapova
By the time first-time WTA 500 semifinalist Potapova knew what had happened, she was already down 0-4 in Saturday’s semifinal.
The only brief moment where things got a little dicey was when Sabalenka had some sudden, inexplicable doubts on her serve late in that first set.
But beyond that, it was one-way traffic in a 6-2, 6-2 win.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
| 21 (May 31, 2001) | Age | 24 (March 5, 1998) |
| Warsaw, Poland | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-11 |
| 12 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 1 (April 4, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $16,096,505 | Career Prize Money | $15,292,956 |
| 19-4 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 23-3 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
Swiatek vs Jabeur Over Before it Began
The second semifinal was a highly anticipated one between Swiatek and Ons Jabeur.
But it ended in tears, as Jabeur injured her calf in the first game of the match and, after a medical timeout, called it a day at 0-3.
Iga Swiatek comforting Ons Jabeur after she had to retire due to injury.
Iga later tells the crowd that she told Ons they will probably play in the Roland Garros Final ❤ pic.twitter.com/aBbjk8p6uc
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) April 22, 2023
Swiatek was a very strong favorite in that one. But it’s still a bit of a question mark as to whether Swiatek is playing well enough to beat Sabalenka; her efforts in Stuttgart this week don’t give a clear answer.
She didn’t play for 45 days before the tournament because of a rib issue suffered in Indian Wells. And her three-set win over Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinals was far from vintage.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka History
The six matches between the two players all took place within the space of 12 months, from the 2021 WTA Finals to the 2022 Finals.
And Swiatek won all four “regular-season” clashes in 2022; Sabalenka managed only one set.
Swiatek vs Jabeur Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | WTA Finals (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 | Sabalenka |
| 2022 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Rome (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-2, 6-1 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Stuttgart (F) | Indoor Clay | 6-2, 6-2 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Doha (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3 | Swiatek |
| 2021 | WTA Finals (RR) | Outdoor Hard | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 | Sabalenka |
A caveat: Swiatek ended up winning all four of those tournaments, which all came during a 37-match winning streak that began in Doha and ran through the second round of Wimbledon.
When they met in the semifinals at the year-end championships last November, Sabalenka prevailed in three.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Prediction
It’s clear that the indoor clay conditions in Stuttgart suit Sabalenka.
It’s also clear that last year’s history came at a time when Swiatek was literally unbeatable, and Sabalenka was in the throes of a major crisis with her serve.
Since then, Swiatek has proved mortal. And Sabalenka won her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.
It sets up as a long one (the odds for over 24.5 games sit at +144), and as a potential upset as well, with Sabalenka at +188 to win outright and +450 to do it in three sets.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Prediction: Sabalenka Wins the First Set (+148)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
