Men’s 400 Meter Final Odds, Picks & Predictions at Paris Olympics 2024

• The men’s 400 meter final takes place Wednesday at 3:20 pm ET
• Great Britain’s Matthew Hudson-Smith is a slight favorite over Team USA’s Quincy Hall
• See the Paris 2024 men’s 400 meter final odds, picks, and predictions on August 7

The American stranglehold on the men’s 400 meters is a thing of the past. Since winning the event in seven straight Olympics from 1988 to 2008, the US has failed to capture gold or silver in any of the last three. LeShawn Merritt’s bronze in Rio in 2016 is Team USA’s only medal in that span.

But the 2024 edition in Paris could bring an abrupt end to that drought. Quincy Hall, the bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championships, has his sights set on the top of the podium, and oddsmakers have positioned him as the second-favorite behind Great Britain’s Matthew Hudson-Smith, who took silver at Worlds.

Reigning world champion Antonio Watson of Jamaica failed to qualify due to injury.

Men’s 400 Meter Final Odds

Hudson-Smith enters Wednesday’s final as the odds-on -145 betting favorite in the men’s 400 meter final odds. Hall is just behind him at +110. Kirami James of Grenada, the 31-year-old gold medalist from 2012, is the third-favorite, but no other runner is shorter than +1200.

Odds as of Aug. 7 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on the Paris 2024 Olympics. 

Kirani James Has Medaled in Three Straight Olympics

James stunned the world at London 2012 when he was just 19 years old, ending the USA’s run of seven straight 400-meter gold medals. But he didn’t go onto dominate the sport the way many predicted he would. (Then-world-record holder Michael Johnson believed James had a chance to eventually break his mark.)

James has stayed near the top of the sport for more than a decade, though, and added a silver medal at Rio 2016 and a bronze at Tokyo 2020. He also ran the second-fastest 400m time this year in his semifinal heat in Paris (43.87) yesterday, which was only four-tenths off Hudson-Smith’s world-leading time of 43.74.

Hudson-Smith Routinely Comes Up Short on World Stage

Hudson-Smith is gaining a reputation as a bridesmaid in the 400 meters. The 29-year-old has captured silver and bronze at the last two World Championships, and finished a disappointing eighth in the 400m final in Tokyo (his first and only Olympic experience to date).

He is a two-time European Champion in the 400m (2018 and 2022) but his price of -145 – which carries a 59.18% implied win probability – is awfully short for a veteran who’s yet to win a title on the world stage.

Hudson-Smith had a massive lead coming around the final bend at the 2023 Worlds before Antonio Watson tracked him down. (See clip, above.)

Quincy Hall Coming off Recent PB

Quincy Hall doesn’t have any world-level gold medals in his trophy case but the 26-year-old is peaking around the right time. Just last month, Hall ran a personal-best time of 43.80 seconds at the Monaco Diamond League event.

But it should be noted that none of the Olympic finalists participated in the 400m in Monaco. Hall has little experience besting an elite field, even though his PB is neck-and-neck with the best times in the world this year.

Men’s 400 Meter Final Picks & Predictions

Hudson-Smith should win this event, based purely on pedigree. But again, I have very little interest betting him at such a short price. I’m even less interested in Hall, who’s never won a 400 meter final against a field of this caliber.

I much prefer taking a shot on tried-and-tested Olympian Kirani James, who came extremely close to matching his PB of 43.74 in the semifinals.

For reasons that I can’t quite comprehend, James is listed as the the third-favorite to win at +1200, but has the fourth-longest odds to win a medal at +175 (36.36% implied probability), behind Hudson-Smith (-2000), Hall (-1400), and Michael Norman (+150).

That’s the bet I’m targeting in the men’s 400 meter final.

PICK: Kirani James to win a medal (+175)

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