UFC Fight Night 137 Picks and Predictions

• UFC Fight Night 137 takes the UFC to São Paulo this Saturday, September 22
• Thiago Santos and Eryk Anders headline the main event, while Alex Oliveira and Carlo Pedersoli Jr feature in the co-main
• After a slew of injuries, the main card is in a state of disarray 

The upcoming UFC event is a pretty mediocre card even by Fight Night standards. Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa were booked to headline in São Paulo, but both have pulled out due to injury. In their place, Thiago Santos and Eryk Anders will feature in the main event. Both fighters sit outside of the top ten middleweight rankings, so it’s fair to say that it won’t be a very impactful fight as far as UFC standings go.

Neil Magny was scheduled to face Alex Oliveira for an exciting welterweight showdown in the co-main, but was pulled from the card and placed as a headliner for a November Fight Night event. The UFC booked the unranked Carlo Pedersoli Jr. to take his place, setting him up for a potentially dangerous mismatch.

The UFC has its eyes set on the upcoming McGregor vs Khabib mega-fight, so it’s no wonder UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Anders feels a little neglected. Still, there are a few interesting betting lines to consider.

Thiago Santos vs Eryk Anders Odds

Eryk Anders (11-1) stepped in on six days’ notice to take on Thiago Santos (18-6) in São Paulo. The pair will fight at 205 lbs instead of their usual 185 lbs, so the weight cut won’t be as grueling, but it still leaves Anders without a full camp and proper preparation.

Both fighters are coming off unconvincing wins. Anders was on his way to a decision loss against the unranked Tim Williams before landing a brutal head kick that stopped the fight. Santos defeated UFC debutant Kevin Holland is his most recent fight, but he had some very sloppy moments and failed to put Holland away despite being handed many chances.

Anders suffered a controversial loss to Lyoto Machida earlier in February. The younger, stronger Anders was able to outwork a 39-year-old Machida but was unable to win the fight purely with raw power. He was sloppy at times and left himself vulnerable on many occasions, but the aging Machida was unable to capitalize.

Thiago Santos and Eryk Anders: Tale of the Tape

Santos demonstrated all his defensive flaws in April when he faced David Branch and was brutally knocked out in the first round. The Brazilian relied heavily on his kicks, and he has throughout his entire career, and repeatedly put himself in situations to be countered. Against a heavy hitter like Anders, that could prove disastrous.

There’s a strong case to be made for Anders. He’s a power puncher up against a guy with poor defense and a suspect chin.

There’s a strong case to be made for Anders. He’s a power puncher up against a guy with poor defense and a suspect chin. He’s only a few years younger but he’s sustained far less damage throughout his career, so we can assume he’s the fresher fighter.

Still, I have to side with Santos. Anders has only had six days to properly train for the fight and he’s venturing into enemy territory to face a very experienced fighter. Anders has only been a professional fighter for three years and he already appears to be stagnating. He leans heavily on his power and often throws technique to the wind. That was enough in the regional circuits and against unranked UFC fighters, but he’ll need to tighten up if he’s going to make it in the UFC.

Pick: Thiago Santos (-155)

Alex Oliveira vs Carlo Pedersoli Jr. Odds

Alex Oliveira (18-4-1, 2 NC) is one of the most entertaining fighters on the UFC roster. He takes on the young Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (11-1) for the co-main event in São Paulo. Pedersoli is a future prospect in the welterweight division, but setting him up against a fighter like Oliveira may be a little too much for him.

Oliveira is coming off a career-defining win over Carlos Condit, submitting him with a guillotine in the second round. His dangerous blend of Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu was too much for The Natural Born Killer, and it’ll likely be too much for the inexperienced Pedersoli.

Alex Oliveira and Carlo Pedersoli Jr: Tale of the Tape

Pedersoli marked his UFC debut with a narrow split decision win over Bradley Scott, a fighter with a measly 3-5 record in the UFC. The fight before, he eked out another split decision victory over Nicolas Dalby, a fighter who was then winless in his last three fights.

Pedersoli may have a bright future ahead of him, but the UFC is feeding him to the wolves with this fight.

Pedersoli may have a bright future ahead of him, but the UFC is feeding him to the wolves with this fight. Brazilian Cowboy has the chance to showcase his talents in front of thousands of hometown fans.

Pick: Alex Oliveira (-400)