Latest Final Four Odds, Betting Trends, Splits & Line Movement

• The 2025 Final Four features Florida vs Auburn and Houston vs Duke
• The Final Four betting trends show the public all over the Blue Devils
• See the latest Final four odds, betting splits and line movement for both games

This Saturday in San Antonio, a quartet of #1 seeds will clash in a Final Four for the ages. West #1 Florida (34-4, 27-11 ATS) meets South #1 Auburn (32-5, 20-16-1 ATS) in the early tip at the Alamodome at 5:09 pm CT/6:09 pm ET. Midwest #1 Houston (34-4, 20-17-1 ATS) vs East #1 Duke (35-3, 25-13 ATS) follows at approximately 7:49 pm CT.8:49 pm ET. With the odds already open for nearly five full days, bettors have had ample time to put money down on both games, resulting in some interesting Final Four betting trends and line movement.

The first section below sets out the updated Final Four odds for both games. The second section sets out how the Houston vs Duke and Florida vs Auburn odds have moved since they opened last Sunday. The third and final section lists the Final Four public-betting splits for both games.

Updated Final Four Odds

Duke, which entered the NCAA Tournament ranked #1 in both polls and rated #1 at KenPom, is the biggest favorite on the board this weekend, laying a full five points against Houston and priced at -278 on the moneyline, giving the Blue Devils a 73.54% implied win probability. At +222, Houston has a 31.06% implied win probability.

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In the early game, Florida is laying 2.5 points against Auburn and is a -150 moneyline favorite (60% implied win probability). Auburn’s +126 moneyline price gives the Tigers a 44.25% implied win probability.

There is a 24-point difference in the game totals. With the run-and-gun Gators, who play at the 59th-fastest tempo out of all 364 DI teams, facing above-average-tempo Auburn (136th), the O/U in the first game is a relatively high 160. The Houston vs Duke game is a matchup between the fifth-slowest team in all of DI (Houston) against a slower-than-average Duke squad (268th). It’s also the top-rated defense in the country (Houston) against the fifth-rated defense (Duke).

Though, on the flip side, Duke’s offense rates as the top unit in the nation while Houston’s just squeaks into the top ten. So the lower total is very much a reflection of pace, not inability to score.

Duke enters the Final Four as the even-money favorite in the odds to win March Madness. Florida is the +300 second-favorite, followed by Houston (+400) and Auburn (+550)

In the next table, which compares the current odds to the opening line, the first number represents the current odds (and thus is the same as the table above) while the number in parentheses the opening number from last Sunday night.

Final Four Line Movement

The first thing that stands out to me is the counterintuitive shifts in the spread and moneyline in Houston vs Duke. The Blue Devils have shortened fairly significantly on the moneyline, going from -215 to -278, while Houston’s odds to win outright have ballooned from +176 to +222.

But the spread has moved towards the Cougars. After opening as 5.5-point underdogs, Houston is now catching just five points. That could make sense if the total was dropping dramatically (it’s hard to cover a big spread in a slow-paced game with fewer possessions) but it’s not. The total has actually gone up half a point. As I’ll illustrate in the next section on betting splits, this line movement is purely based on where disparate sections of the public are putting their money.

The Florida vs Auburn odds have changed very little when it comes to the spread and the moneyline. The spread is actually identical while the moneyline has moved incrementally towards the Gators (from -146 to -150).

The biggest shift in any of the markets, though, is the Florida/Auburn game total, which has plummeted 3.5 points from the opening number (from 163.5 to 160.0). Auburn games have been trending lower-scoring for the last few weeks. The Tigers stayed under in three of their first four NCAA Tournament games and six of seven overall. That stands in stark contrast to the Gators, though, who have gone over in 11 straight games!

Final Four Public-Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits for the Final Four illustrated some curious betting trends. In the Florida/Auburn game, the vast majority of moneyline tickets (i.e. the actual number of bets on who will win) are on Florida to advance. But the moneyline handle (i.e. the amount of money bet on who will win the game) is slightly in Auburn’s favor (52% to 48%), which means, on average, much larger wagers are on Auburn to win.

The ATS splits show the same paradigm: Florida is getting more wagers (55%) but Auburn is getting more of the money bet against the spread (61%).

There’s no such division when it comes to Houston vs Duke. The public is absolutely hammering the Duke moneyline, both in terms of number of wagers (92%) and the amount of money bet (82%). Indeed, taken as a whole, the Duke moneyline is the public’s favorite bet of the weekend.

The public is also loving the over in Houston/Duke, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see it tick up another half-point before tip-off. So far, 84% of game-total bets and 90% of game-total handle are on the over.