Thunder vs Nuggets Game 6 Picks, Predictions, Player Props & Odds

• The OKC Thunder can end their best-of-seven series with the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 on Thursday night
• The Thunder are 4.5-point road favorites and have won three of the last four in the series
• See the Game 6 Thunder vs Nuggets odds and player props, plus my best OKC vs Denver picks and predictions on May 15

With Cleveland out and Boston on the brink of elimination, the OKC Thunder (75-16, 24-18-2 away, 56-32-4 ATS) have become odds-on favorites in the 2025 NBA championship odds. On Thursday night, OKC can take a massive step towards its first title by eliminating the 2023-champion Denver Nuggets (56-38, 22-24-1 home, 46-47-1 ATS) in Game 6 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal.

Facing the Nuggets on the road at Ball Arena in Denver’s rarified air has long been one of the NBA’s toughest tests, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are not-insignificant favorites in Thursday’s NBA odds.

Jump to: OKC vs DEN Odds | OKC vs DEN Player Props | OKC vs DEN Picks

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Odds (Game 6)

The Thunder vs Nuggets point spread for Game 6 favors OKC by 4.5 points. On the moneyline, the Thunder are listed as -180 road chalk, giving them a 64.29% implied win probability. The Nuggets come back as +152 home underdogs, a 39.68% implied win probability. The game total is sitting at 217 flat with -110 odds each way.

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Denver and OKC hit the over in Games 1 and 2 of the series, against relatively high totals of 229.5 and 230, respectively. But the last three games in the series have looked much different from a defensive standpoint. Each of Games 3, 4, and 5 stayed under by at least 4.5 points and by an average of 22.8 points per game. (Game 4, in particular, hit just 189 points against a total of 228.)

As a result, the game totals have been plummeting from a series-high of 232.0 in Game 3 to just 217.0 ahead of Game 6.

OKC vs DEN Series Betting Trends

Anyone who’s bet the Denver moneyline in all five games is up 3.25 units over the course of the series. Assuming -110 odds, anyone who has bet the Nuggets to cover the spread in all five games is up 2.64 units. Consistent under bettors have profited a minimal 0.73 units through five games.

Thunder vs Nuggets Game 6 Player Props

NBA player props from bet365 on May 15.

Gilgeous-Alexander (28.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 6.7 APG postseason) has a point total of just 30.5 in Game 6, his lowest of the series to date. SGA has scored at least 31 points in each of the three home games against the Nuggets, but was held to just 18 Game 3 and 25 in Game 4 in Denver.

Jokic (26.5 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 8.1 APG postseason) has a point total of 28.5, up one point fr26.5 2.3 10.7 12.9 8.1om Game 5. Jokic has gone over 40 twice in the series (Games 1 and 5, both on the road) and stayed under 27.5 in the other three.

Thunder vs Nuggets Game 6 Picks & Prediction

• Nuggets moneyline (+160) at FanDuel – two units
• Jokic over 51.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110) at bet365 – two units

As great as the Thunder were in the regular season, and as easily as they dusted aside Memphis in the first round of the NBA playoff bracket, I’m not sold on this team being head-and-shoulders above the former-champion Nuggets on the road. OKC’s offense has been in shambles for much of this series, and Jokic is playing some of the best basketball of his already-legendary career.

Denver absolutely dominated Games 5 (131-115) and 7 (120-102) at home against the favored-Clippers in the first round. Getting Denver at +160 to win straight-up at home with their season on the line is more than fair, especially in light of the fact that the young Thunder haven’t been beyond the second round in the SGA era.