Montreal’s Stanley Cup Odds After Noah Dobson Trade – Value on the Habs?

• The Montreal Canadiens acquired defenseman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders on Friday
• Montreal gave up two first-round picks and immediately signed Dobson to an eight-year, $76 million extension
• See the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup odds and betting analysis following the blockbuster move

The Montreal Canadiens made their biggest move in years Friday, landing star defenseman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders. The price was steep: both first-round picks (16th and 17th overall) plus forward Emil Heineman.

Montreal wasted no time locking up their new defenseman, signing him to an eight-year extension worth $76 million. That’s a $9.5 million cap hit through 2033.

Yet despite adding one of the league’s most productive young defensemen, the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup odds at DraftKings haven’t moved from +6000. Let’s dig into whether Montreal is being undervalued.

Montreal Canadiens Stanley Cup Odds 2026

At 60-to-1, Montreal is tied with Nashville for the 20th-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. That puts them quite a bit behind Eastern Conference rivals like Florida (+600), Carolina (+900), and Tampa Bay (+1400).

Odds as of June 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Montreal Canadiens Dobson Trade Analysis

The Canadiens beat out Columbus and St. Louis to land Dobson, who was entering the final year of team control. This was GM Kent Hughes rolling the dice, betting that Dobson can get back to his 70-point magic from 2023-24.

Last season was rough for Dobson, though. He managed just 39 points in 71 games, which is a pretty steep drop from his breakout year. But let’s be fair here. The Islanders were a disaster, and Dobson was still eating over 23 minutes a night against the other team’s best players.

The guy’s got the tools. At 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, Dobson brings both size and skill to Montreal’s backend. He became the first Islander defenseman since Denis Potvin to crack 70 points in a season. And while Lane Hutson looked brilliant last year, having two dynamic offensive defensemen gives Montreal some real firepower from the blueline.

The timing works perfectly with David Savard’s retirement leaving a hole on the right side. Dobson immediately becomes Montreal’s top right-shot defenseman and should quarterback their first power-play unit.

Impact on Stanley Cup Odds

So why haven’t the odds moved? A few reasons could explain the oddsmakers’ cautious approach.

First, Montreal’s core is still young. Nick Suzuki (26) and Cole Caufield (24) are proven scorers, but guys like Juraj Slafkovsky (21) and Lane Hutson (21) are still developing. The Canadiens made the playoffs last year but lost to Washington in five games.

Second, Dobson’s inconsistency is a concern. Dropping from 70 points to 39, even on a struggling team, raises questions. At $9.5 million a year, Montreal needs the best version of Dobson, not the one that appeared last season.

The Eastern Conference remains loaded. Florida just won back-to-back Cups, Carolina is always dangerous, and teams like Toronto and New Jersey have more established rosters. The path to a championship runs through some heavyweight teams.

Canadiens Stanley Cup Betting Value

At +6000, there’s some value if you believe in Montreal’s trajectory. They’ve addressed a major weakness by adding a legit top-pairing defenseman, and their forward group looks talented and continues to improve.

I expect the market to adjust and these odds to shorten a bit, maybe down to +5500 or +5000. But to move the needle significantly, the Canadiens have to prove they can win playoff rounds.

The Canadiens are building something interesting. With prospects like Ivan Demidov and David Reinbacher in the pipeline, this team could be dangerous in 2-3 years. Adding Dobson accelerates that timeline, but they’re probably still a year or two away from true contention.

There’s also the goalie situation to sort out. Samuel Montembeault needs to show he can be consistent for a full season and into the playoffs. He had some good moments last year, but hasn’t really established himself as a true number one yet.

Right now, +6000 feels about right to me. It’s worth throwing a small futures bet at if you believe in this young core, but don’t expect Montreal to be trading punches with Florida or Edmonton come playoff time.