Cubs vs Twins Picks, Predictions, Odds & Player Props (July 10)

• The Minnesota Twins can complete a series sweep of the Chicago Cubs at home on Thursday
• The pitching matchup – Chicago’s Colin Rea vs Minnesota’s Chris Paddack – leaves a lot to be desired for both teams
• This article breaks down Cubs vs Twins odds, player props, and betting trends before offering a prediction for this interleague matchup

The Chicago Cubs (54-38, 24-22 away, 45-39-6 O/U) and Minnesota Twins (45-47, 26-18 home, 39-48-5 O/U) play the finale of their three-game series on Thursday, July 10, at Target Field in Minneapolis (1:10 pm ET). The pitching matchup features Colin Rea (6-3, 4.13 ERA) for the visitors against Chris Paddack (3-7, 4.64 ERA) for the hosts.

The Twins dominated the first two games of the series, outscoring Chicago 12-3 in total. The back-to-back losses dropped the Cubs to 1-4 in their last five road games, with a lack of clutch hitting generally to blame. Sportsbooks aren’t putting too much stock in Chicago’s recent offensive struggles, though. Still the highest-scoring team in the league in terms of runs per game (and owners of the best run differential), the Cubs are slight -118 road favorites in the series finale.

The first table below sets out the full slate of Cubs vs Twins odds (moneyline, runline, total). After the table, find notes on the line movement, player props, and finally my betting prediction.

Jump to: Odds | Injury Reports | Pitcher vs Batter Stats | Player Props | Picks

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Odds

The current Cubs vs Twins odds set Chicago as a slim -118 road favorite, with Minnesota coming back as a -102 home underdog in Thursday’s MLB odds. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Cubs a slight edge to win (51.7% to 48.3%). The Cubs are priced at +139 to win by two or more runs, while the Twins are -167 to at least keep the final score within a single run. The total is sitting at a relatively high 9.5 with the over favored at -115, even though neither of the first two games exceeded nine runs and averaged just 7.5 RPG.

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MIN vs CHC Odds Movement

The betting market opened with this game as an exact pick’em, with both teams listed at -110 on the moneyline. Since then, money has come in on the Cubs, shifting their line to -118 while the Twins have dropped to -102. This movement comes despite the Twins winning the first two games of the series and suggests the market is still respecting the Cubs’ overall body of work this season.

The total has only seen minor movement, opening at 9.5 with even -110 odds on both sides and shifting to favor the over at -115. This indicates bettors anticipate a decent number of runs, which aligns with the starters’ ERAs both being north of 4.00.

The runline has seen money come in on the Twins to cover +1.5 runs, with their odds moving from -182 to -167, signaling that while the market may favor a Cubs win, it expects a close contest. This movement could be influenced by the Twins’ recent hot streak at home and the Cubs’ struggles to generate offense on the road.

Cubs vs Twins Injury Reports for July 10

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Neither lineup has a ton of history against the starter it will see on Thursday afternoon. The Cubs have 40 total at-bats against Paddack (excluding pitchers), while the current Minnesota lineup has just 15 at-bats against Rea, spread across six different players. Only one player on either team has taken the opposing starter yard.

Chicago Cubs Batters vs Chris Paddack (RHP)

Justin Turner and Carson Kelly are the only Cubs with double-digit at-bats against Paddack. Turner has just three singles in his 14 at-bats with no walks and three strikeouts. Kelly, however, is 4-for-12 with a home run and two RBI.

Paddack enters with a 4.64 ERA and will face a Cubs lineup that owns a potent .773 OPS on the season but has gone cold recently. The Cubs have struggled mightily with runners in scoring position during this series. He relies on a fastball/changeup combination, and his success will hinge on keeping the Cubs’ hitters off balance. If he can effectively locate his changeup down-and-away from left-handed power bats like Kyle Tucker, he could neutralize Chicago’s biggest threats.

Minnesota Twins Batters vs Colin Rea (RHP)

Ty France has the most experience against Rea, going 1-for-5 with a single. In a very minimal 15 at-bats, Rea has allowed just one double and no homers to the current Minnesota hitters. Overall, the Twins have just a .200 batting average and .600 OPS against the 35-year-old righty.

Rea brings a more stable 4.13 ERA to the mound against a surging Twins offense. Minnesota has been particularly effective at home, showing improved situational hitting and a knack for timely power. Rea’s approach is built on inducing weak contact with his sinker and cutter. However, he’ll face a lineup that has several hitters, including Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, who have historically performed well against right-handed pitching. If the Twins’ hitters can show patience and wait for Rea to leave a pitch over the middle of the plate, they could continue their recent offensive success.

CHI Cubs vs MIN Twins Player Props

MLB player props represent the consensus across multiple sportsbooks on July 10.

For the pitcher props, Paddack’s strikeout line of 4.5 with plus-money on the over is intriguing. The Cubs’ offense has been prone to strikeouts during their recent slump.

Rea’s earned-runs line is set at 2.5, with heavy juice on the over (-154), indicating the market expects the hot Twins lineup to get to him. His innings pitched prop of 5.2 (16.5 outs) also suggests the books believe he’ll have a decent, if not dominant, outing.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Prediction

• Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-102)
• Over 9.5 runs (-115)

This matchup presents a classic clash of current form versus season-long performance. While the Cubs have the better record and, as mentioned, the MLB’s best run differential, the Twins are playing their best baseball of the year of late, winning four of five from the Cubs and Rays, two legitimate contenders in the World Series odds. My analysis leans heavily on the Twins’ recent momentum and home-field dominance.

The starting pitching matchup is relatively even, with both Paddack and Rea sporting ERAs over 4.00. Neither inspires overwhelming confidence, which shifts the focus to the offenses and bullpens. Here, the Twins have a clear edge. Their offense is clicking, and their bullpen has been lights out. The Cubs, meanwhile, are struggling to score runs and have been dreadful with runners in scoring position.

Several betting trends support a play on the home team. The Twins are an impressive 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning record and have won four of their last five games overall. Conversely, the Cubs have been abysmal on the road, losing four of their last five away from Wrigley Field. With the public heavily backing the Cubs, there’s significant value in fading the popular play and siding with the hot hand. The total is also tempting, as the over has hit in six of the Twins’ last seven home games following a win.