Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks, Player Props, Odds & Line Movement

• The MLB-leading Blue Jay visit the Orioles on Monday evening
• Baltimore has a strong track record against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt and the weather/stadium are both hitter-friendly
• See the Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles odds, player props, and picks for July 28th

The Toronto Blue Jays (63-43, 26-26 away, 56-45-5 O/U) and Baltimore Orioles (47-58, 24-26 home, 45-57-3 O/U) square off in the opener of a four-game series at Camden Yards at 6:35 pm ET on Monday, July 28. The pitching matchup pits Toronto’s Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) against Baltimore’s Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA), who is in the midst of a brutal stretch of starts.

But the Orioles have teed-off against Bassitt in the past, which has led oddsmakers to set the Toronto/Baltimore betting line as a near pick’em.

Jump to: TOR vs BAL Odds | Line Movement | Bat-vs-Pitch History | Player Props | Picks

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Odds

The Blue Jays/Orioles moneyline currently favors Baltimore at -115 with Toronto a slight -105 underdog. The vig-free implied probability gives the Orioles a slight 51.1% chance of winning compared to the Blue Jays’ 48.9%. This close line suggests that oddsmakers are weighing factors beyond the surface-level pitching numbers, likely including Baltimore’s home-field advantage and historical performance in this matchup. The run total is sitting at 9.5 with the under a modest favorite at -115.

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The teams split their first two meetings of the season, both one-run decisions in Baltimore. The Orioles took a 5-4 decision on April 12 and Toronto answered back with a 7-6 extra-innings victory on June 13.

Despite sitting first in the entire MLB, Toronto (+1300) is still outside the top-five favorites in the World Series odds, still trailing the Yankees (+800), Tigers (+800), and Astros (+1200) in the American League, alone.

TOR vs BAL Odds Movement

The moneyline has seen significant movement. The Orioles opened as +100 underdogs but have since been bet down to -115 favorites. Conversely, the Blue Jays opened at -120 and have faded to -105. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, as public betting data shows 78% of the moneyline tickets are on the Blue Jays. When the line moves against the public, it often indicates that sharp, respected bettors are taking the other side – in this case, the Orioles.

The total has remained steady at 9.5 runs, though the public is heavily favoring the over with 71% of the bets. The runline has seen the juice on the Orioles +1.5 increase from -161 to -179, making it a more expensive proposition to back the home underdog on the spread.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Zach Eflin has generally handled the current Blue Jays hitters well in limited matchups, holding them to a collective .640 OPS in 84 at-bats. The story is completely different for the Orioles against Chris Bassitt. The Baltimore lineup has absolutely crushed him, posting a .855 OPS in 97 at-bats.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Zach Eflin

Vladimir Guerrero Jr (twice), George Springer, and Addison Barger are the only three Blue Jays with home runs against Eflin over their careers. Bo Bichette is a Blue Jay to potentially fade, registering just two hits (both singles) and no walks with three strikeouts in 17 at-bats against Eflin.

Baltimore Orioles Career Statistics vs Chris Bassitt

Ryan O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson have been particularly destructive against Bassitt, both slugging over 1.400 against the veteran righty. This historical dominance is a massive factor in this matchup and likely explains the reverse line movement in Baltimore’s favor.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Player Props

MLB player props represent a consensus across sportsbooks on July 28th.

The prop market tells an interesting story. For Chris Bassitt, the over 2.5 earned runs at -120 looks very appealing given the Orioles’ career .855 OPS against him. For Zach Eflin, his earned-run prop is also set at 2.5, but with heavier juice on the over (-133). Considering he has allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts, this line seems more than fair. The over on Eflin’s earned runs is a strong play. For batters, Gunnar Henderson to go over 1.5 total bases (+100) is a great value pick based on his two career homers off Bassitt.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Prediction

This AL East showdown presents a classic conflict for bettors: current form versus historical matchups. Bassitt has been the far more reliable pitcher recently, posting a 3.88 ERA and consistently giving the Blue Jays quality outings. In contrast, Eflin has been in a significant slump, owning a 5.78 ERA and getting hit hard in nearly every start for the past month.

On paper, this points to a clear Blue Jays advantage. However, the batter-vs-pitcher data flips the script entirely. The current Orioles roster has dismantled Bassitt, especially in the last five years, posting a 1.180 OPS and five home runs in just 51 at-bats.

This historical dominance cannot be ignored and is the likely reason sharp money has moved the line toward Baltimore. Adding to the offensive outlook is the weather, with hot, humid conditions at the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Several betting trends support a high-scoring affair, most notably: the Over has hit in 7 of the last 8 games between the Blue Jays and Orioles (87.5%). The Orioles, who had a brutal start to the season, have also performed well as home favorites more recently, going 12-6 (.667) in their last 18 such games.

Given Eflin’s struggles and the Orioles’ proven ability to hit Bassitt, I am targeting the over and the Baltimore moneyline. I’m also betting on Hunderson over 1.5 total bases at even-money.

Picks:

• Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
• Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-115)
• Player Prop: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)