Phillies vs Reds Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Cincinnati Reds, behind a breakout season from starter Andrew Abbott, host the Philadelphia Phillies in the opener of a three-game series.
• Despite Abbott’s stellar 2.34 ERA, the Phillies enter as a popular underdog pick, backed by a potent offense and veteran starter Taijuan Walker.
• Our analysis points to value on the total, with key betting trends suggesting a lower-scoring affair than the hitter-friendly park might imply.

The Philadelphia Phillies (68-49, 31-28 away, 49-62-6 O/U) visit the Cincinnati Reds (62-57, 33-26 home, 44-69-6 O/U) on Monday, August 11, at Great American Ball Park with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 pm ET. The pitching matchup features Taijuan Walker (4-5, 3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) for the visitors against burgeoning ace Andrew Abbott (8-2, 2.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) for the home squad.

This matchup at Great American Ball Park, a notorious haven for hitters, pits Abbott’s impressive run prevention against a Phillies offense that ranks ninth in MLB in slugging percentage. This article will break down the odds, player props, and key statistical trends to provide a comprehensive betting prediction for this National League clash.

Go to: Odds | Pitchers-vs-Batter History | Player Props | Picks

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Monday’s MLB odds show the Reds as slight -126 home favorites, a line driven largely by the exceptional performance of Abbott this season. The Phillies come back as +104 underdogs. The vig-free implied win probability gives the Reds a 53.2% chance to win, compared to 46.8% for the visiting Phillies. The total is sitting at 9.5 runs, standard for a game at Great American Ball Park.

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CIN vs PHI Odds Movement

The opening odds at DraftKings listed the Reds at -132, which has since seen a slight move toward the visitors, now sitting at -126. This six-cent shift suggests that early money has favored the Phillies, reducing the price on the underdog. The total has remained firm at 9.5 runs, though the juice has shifted, opening with the over at -119 and now settling at an even -110 both way, indicating some market respect for the under.

This line movement aligns with Monday’s MLB public betting data, which shows a majority of moneyline tickets on the Phillies. The adjustment appears driven by betting volume and respect for Philadelphia’s powerful lineup, even against a pitcher with Abbott’s stellar surface-level stats. The lack of movement on the total, despite the park’s reputation, suggests oddsmakers are weighing the quality of the starting pitching heavily, creating potential value for bettors who have a strong read on whether this game will be a slugfest or a pitcher’s duel.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Both teams’ lineups have just short of 50 at-bats against the opposing starter. The Phillies’ numbers against Abbott are considerably better than the Reds’ numbers against Walker, but none of Walker’s success against Cincinnati came this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs Andrew Abbott

Altogether, the Phillies are batting a rock-solid .286 against Abbott with a .850 OPS. Harrison Bader and Nick Castellanos have the only two home runs. Alec Bohm is 3-for-4 with two doubles and four RBI.

Concerningly for Abbott, much of the damage came in a subpar start on July 4, when he was tagged for nine hits and four earned runs in just 3.1 innings. That game alone sent his ERA fro 1.79 to 2.15. He had a quartet of solid starts thereafter, but that streak was halted last time out when he gave up four runs on seven hits (two homers) and two walks in 6.2 innings during a 6-1 loss to the Cubs.

Cincinnati Reds Career Statistics vs Taijuan Walker

Walker hasn’t exactly dominated the Cincinnati lineup but he has been able to limit damage. He has only racked up six strikeouts against six walks in 46 at-bats, but he hasn’t allowed a home run and the Reds hitters have a minimal .590 OPS against the 32-year-old righty.

Walker’s last start was one of his best of the season, going 6.0 innings while allowing just four hits and no runs with four strikeouts.

Reds vs Phillies Player Props

MLB player props as of August 11 at DraftKings.

For prop bettors, Abbott’s strikeout line of 4.5 is intriguing. While his season ERA is elite, his strikeout numbers aren’t overwhelming, and the Phillies have a disciplined lineup. The Under (+115) holds some appeal.

For the Phillies, Walker’s earned runs prop is set at 3.5, with the over priced at +120. In a hitter’s park against a Reds team that boasts a solid .318 OBP, the over on his earned runs is a strong consideration. On the batter side, Spencer Steer has an excellent career OBP against Walker and is on a hot streak, making his over 1.5 total bases at +115 a +EV play.

Reds vs Phillies Picks & Prediction

The central dynamic of this game is how Abbott’s fly-ball tendencies will play in the homer-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Abbott has been superb, posting a 2.34 ERA, but his underlying metrics (3.79 FIP, 4.44 xFIP) and low 30.9% ground-ball rate suggest he’s been fortunate. Facing a Phillies lineup with a .418 team slugging percentage and power threats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, regression could hit hard. On the other side, Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact starter (43.4% GB rate) who can also be susceptible to the long ball, making this pitching matchup a volatile one.

Given the red flags in Abbott’s profile and the Phillies’ offensive prowess, the value lies with the road underdog. Walker is steady enough to keep his team in the game, and the Phillies’ offense has the firepower to capitalize on any mistakes from Abbott. The sharpest money is backing the Reds on the run line, but the public and broader sharp indicators favor Philadelphia on the moneyline. We’ll ride with the better lineup in a hitter’s park.

Picks:

• Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (+104)
• Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)