Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2025 US Open Final

• Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet in their third straight grand-slam final on Sunday afternoon at the US Open
• Sinner retired from their last match and needed a medical timeout in his semifinal victory
• See the Sinner vs Alcaraz odds, picks, and predictions for Sunday, Sep. 7

Familiar foes meet again in Flushing Meadows when world #1 Jannik Sinner faces #2 Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the 2025 US Open on Sunday, Sep. 7, at 2:00 pm ET.

Alcaraz beat Sinner in the 2025 French Open final in June, but Sinner answered back in the 2025 Wimbledon final in July. Sinner, who has won each of the last two Australian Opens and is the defending US Open-champion, is riding a 27-match win streak at hardcourt grand slams. He heads into the 2025 US Open final as a slight betting favorite.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds & Betting Lines

Sinner’s moneyline price ranges from -135 to -125, with bet365 and ESPN Bet currently offering the best price. Coincidentally, bet365 and ESPN Bet also have the longest odds on an Alcaraz victory at +110. The game total ranges from 40.5 to 41.5, creating a slim chance for bettors to try to middle the total; the best over odds are 40.5 (-110) at DraftKings, while the best under odds are 41.5 (-115) at Caesars.

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Sinner started the tournament as the favorite in the odds to win the US Open and was -146 on average going into the semifinals. But his less-than-convincing four-set win over Felix Auger-Aliassime (6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4) led to his odds actually getting longer before the finals.

Alcaraz shortened from +146 to +108, on average, after beating Novak Djokovic in straight sets (6-4, 7-6⁴, 6-2) on Friday.

Alcaraz vs Sinner – Hardcourt History

Alcaraz owns a 6-3 edge against Sinner on harcourts, but that’s thanks to winning each of the first three. They have split the six most-recent, with Alcaraz’s victory in Cincinnati last month coming via first-set retirement. Sinner quit due to an illness after falling behind 5-0.

Notably, in four of their eight completed hardcourt matches, the player that won the first set went onto lose the match.

Their only previous meeting at a hardcourt grand slam was at the 2022 US Open, when Alcaraz won a thrilling five-setter.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Prediction & Picks

• Over 40.5 games (-110) at DraftKings
• Sinner moneyline (-125) at ESPN Bet

My favorite bet is over 40.5 games, which is priced at -110 at DraftKings. Five of the eight completed hardcourt matches have gone the maximum number of sets. Neither of them have won in straight sets in their five grand-slam meetings. And they have a penchant for playing tiebreakers, especially on hardcourts, where only one of their eight completed matches didn’t feature at least one tiebreak.

If we get a four-set match that includes a tiebreak, over 40.5 is a very strong bet (one ten-game set and two nine-game sets would get us over the total, for instance).

I’m also betting Sinner at the attenuated -125 price at ESPN Bet (or bet365). This man hasn’t lost a hardcourt grand slam match since falling to Alex Zverev at the 2023 US Open. Unlike Alcaraz, he has dropped two sets en route to the final, but Alcaraz actually looked pretty shaky in his straight-sets win over Djokovic, serving just 58% and hitting 31 winners to 30 unforced errors. He was lucky that Djokovic hit winners-to-UEs at a 1-to-2 ratio (15 winners, 30 unforced errors).

Sinner’s phyiscal state could prove to be his downfall. Alcaraz certainly looked more robust and spry in the semis, while Sinner needed a medical timeout due to shoulder pain. That’s unrelated to the illness that forced him to retire from the Cincinnati final, but there’s no doubt which player enters the final in better condition.

Still, I can’t not bet the Sinner moneyline given the hardcourt run that he’s on. I wouldn’t bet more than unit in light of the possibility of another retirement, but -125 is more than a fair price.