Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers Closing Odds & Picks

• The Vikings are -2.5 point favorites over the Steelers in the NFL International Series Game on Sunday morning from Dublin
• Aaron Rodgers has a 27.3% completion rate under pressure this season
• See below for the closing Vikings vs Steelers odds, plus my picks for this contest

The NFL touches down in Ireland this week for the first-ever regular-season game from Dublin on Sunday morning. The Minnesota Vikings (2-1) will face the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), and will turn to Carson Wentz again with J.J. McCarthy still nursing an injury. Online sportsbooks don’t believe there’s much of a downgrade from McCarthy to Wentz, listing Minnesota as the chalk in the NFL odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am ET from Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland, with NFL Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

• Vikings -2.5 (-110 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

I’m fading Aaron Rodgers in my Vikings vs Steelers picks, just like I’ve been doing all season. I was rewarded in Weeks 1 and 2 as Pittsburgh failed to cover as a favorite, and I should have been paid off last week if not for five Patriots turnovers. Rodgers is a shell of his former self when under pressure, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the NFL’s number one pass rush.

No team generates more pressure than Minnesota, and DC Brian Flores is relentless when it comes to blitzing the QB. Rodgers has the most severe splits when facing pressure as opposed to a clean pocket, and threw three interceptions against the Vikings last year as a member of the Jets.

Diving into the numbers, it’s shocking just how bad Rodgers has been when the heat is on. He boasts just a 27.3% completion rate under duress, compared to a 78% completion rate when kept clean. The 41-year-old has a 34% sack + turnover worthy play percentage under pressure, and averages just 6.6 yards per attempt.

To make matters worse, Pittsburgh is being forced to drop back more than they’d like because they can’t run the ball. Only three teams have a lower rushing grade this year than the Steelers, while their running back room is averaging a miserable 2.8 yards per carry.

Not only do the Vikings lead the NFL in pressure rate, they’re also top-13 against the run, and ninth in coverage. They’ve held enemy QB’s to 5.8 yards per throw, and rank third in the league in takeaways.

Speaking of takeaways, it’s literally the only reason Pittsburgh has a winning record. They’ve been outgained in all three games so far, and are allowing nearly 6.0 yards per play to enemy offenses. Pittsburgh is 22nd in scoring defense, and has allowed a league-high 32 plays of at least 20 passing yards or 12 rushing yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Stats

That’s great news for Vikings backers, who looked more like last year’s Super Bowl odds-contending team in Week 3 versus the Bengals. Wentz played a clean game in his season debut, completing 70% of his passes for 173 yards and 2 TD. More importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over. If he can replicate that performance on Sunday, Minnesota should roll.

Also working in Minnesota’s favor is the return of Jordan Addison. The wideout will make his season debut after sitting out the first three games due to suspension. Addison has nearly 1,800 receiving yards and 19 TD over his first two seasons, and his presence will free up more favorable matchups for superstar Justin Jefferson on the other side.

Vikings vs Steelers Betting Trends

As for the betting trends, favorites have excelled overseas, lending more credence to a Minnesota -2.5 pick. They’re 36-13-1 straight up, and 32-18 against the spread. Rodgers has played two International games in his career, failing to cover as a member of the Packers and the Jets.

Vikings vs Steelers Closing Odds

The best odds we can get on Vikings -2.5 is -105 at DraftKings. Bet365 is offering -110 odds on Steelers +2.5, so make sure to bet there if you’re rolling with the underdog.

Bet365 is also offering the juiciest payout on a Pittsburgh upset at +125, while FanDuel is the book to visit if you’re betting the over. They’re currently hanging a 40.5 point total, while most other shops are a point higher.

Odds as of 7:30 pm ET, Sept. 27. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on Vikings vs Steelers.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, the Steelers are dominating the spread betting as of Saturday night. They’re drawing 85% of the tickets so far, meaning sportsbooks will be rooting for the Vikings, just like me.