Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Player Props to Target & Best Bets (Week 4)

• The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs meet in a massive Week 4 game
• The Ravens are the only team in the league that’s 3-0 O/U this season
• Below, see the full list of Ravens vs Chiefs player props plus best bets

To the surprise of the entire league, both the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) are below .500 heading into Week 4, when they clash at Arrowhead Stadium in America’s Game of the Week on FOX (4:25 pm ET). Weather conditions are expected to be ideal for football, with clear skies, a temperature of 75°F, and a light 5 mph wind. The loser will fall to a concerning 1-3 and be squarely behind the eight-ball in the NFL playoff race.

The Ravens have been the most-reliable over bet this season, going 3-0 O/U through the first three weeks. The Ravens vs Chiefs player props feature some fairly big numbers and short anytime TD odds, especially for Baltimore running back Derrick Henry.

The table below sets out the main Ravens vs Chiefs player props. Under the table, find my favorite A.I.-supported Chiefs/Ravens player props to bet.

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Player Props

Patrick Mahomes has a slightly higher passing-yardage number than Lamar Jackson (238.5 vs 227.5) and much higher completion number (24.5 vs 19.5).

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NFL player props in table from DraftKings at 1:15 pm ET, Sep. 28.

SBD writer Ryan Potts likes Kansas City to cover as three-point home underdogs in his Ravens vs Chiefs picks.

BAL Ravens vs KC Chiefs Player-Prop Pick #1: Jackson Over 45.5 Rush Yards

My first bet of the day is Jackson to go over 45.5 rushing yards against an aggressive Kansas City pass rush. Jackson was sacked an embarrassing seven times last week by the Lions. The best way to keep the Chiefs’ edge rushers at bay is to break the pocket and gash the Chiefs for chunk-yardage up the middle.

History is also on Jackson’s side here: he’s faced the Chiefs six times in his career and gone over 45.5 rushing yards in all six. That includes a ludicrous 122-yard performance in Week 1 last season and 54-yard effort in the 2023 playoffs.

This was our A.I.’s favorite Ravens/Chiefs player prop bet as of gameday. Earlier in the week, it was targeting Travis Kelce over 4.5 receptions (+115) at BetMGM in its Week 4 A.I. player props.

Ravens vs Chiefs Player Prop Pick #2: Pacheco Over 35.5 Rush Yards

The Ravens are struggling against the run without DT Nnamdi Madubuike. The team ranks 30th in the NFL, surrendering an average of 149 rushing yards per game and a hefty 4.9 yards per carry.

Pacheco and the entire KC running back room have been horrible through three weeks. Pacheco, himself, has just 92 rushing yards at 3.7 YPC. He’s coming off his best game of the season against the Giants, though (45 rush yards at 4.5 YPC), and he was crucial in Kansas City’s 27-20 Week 1 win against Baltimore last year, rushing for 45 yards and a TD while adding another 33 yards through the air.

One of the keys to beating the run-heavy Ravens is to shorten the game. The bruising Derrick Henry thrives on high volume, which allows his physical style to beat down defensive lines over the course of 60 minutes.

Andy Reid, a nonpareil in terms of game planning, is well aware of this. The fewer possessions there are in this game, the happier he’ll be. That means establishing Pacheco and the run game early.

BAL Ravens vs KC Chiefs Prop Pick #3: Mahomes Under 24.5 Completions

Mahomes is only averaging 20.7 completions per game this season, and it’s going to be crucial for Kansas City to establish the run and use some clock during its drives, as discussed above.

Mahomes’ own completion percentage of 59.1%, coupled with an uncharacteristically low 83.4 passer rating and the Chiefs’ overall offensive struggles, are plenty of evidence to render the under the stronger play here.