PHI Phillies vs LA Dodgers Expert Picks & A.I. Predictions for Game 3

• The Los Angeles Dodgers can eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS tonight
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts for LAD against veteran Aaron Nola for PHI
• See the Phillies vs Dodgers A.I. picks and predictions for Game 3 plus the latest betting odds

It’s do-or-die for the Philadelphia Phillies (96-66, 41-40 away) tonight when they travel to So-Cal for Game 3 of the NLDS with the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, 52-29 home) at Chavez Ravine (6:08 pm ET).

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) starts for the Dodgers, who are riding a nine-game win streak dating back to the regular season. Philadelphia counters with veteran Aaron Nola (5-10, 6.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who’s coming by far off the worst regular season of his 11-year career.

With an apparent mismatch on the mound and the Dodgers possessing a strong home-field advantage, the PHI/LAD Game 3 odds heavily favor Los Angeles ending the series tonight. Below, I have set out our A.I.’s top Phillies vs Dodgers picks for Game 4, the relevant pitcher-vs-batter history, the main player props, and the updated odds. Use the following links to navigate to each section.

A.I. PICKS || PITCHER-vs-BATTER STATS || PLAYER PROPS || PHI vs LAD ODDS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Prediction

• Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
• Over 7.5 runs (-120)

Our A.I. loves the Dodgers to end the series tonight, largely because of the mismatch between Yamamoto and Nola, and the strong history for some of the Dodger hitters against the Phillies starter.

Yamamoto was solid in his first start of the postseason, despite a shaky first inning, 6.2 innings and allowing just two unearned runs on four hits with nine strikeouts. His combination of command and swing-and-miss stuff is a nightmare for a Phillies offense that has struggled to find consistency in this series.

On the other side, Nola faces a murderer’s row of Dodger hitters who have a long and decent track record against him. Mookie Betts has been his personal kryptonite, hitting .391 with a 1.091 OPS in 26 at-bats. The pressure on Nola to be perfect in an elimination game, on the road, against this lineup is astronomical.

Multiple betting trends reinforce the Dodgers’ advantage. They are a remarkable 9-1 (.900) in their last 10 postseason games and have won their last nine straight against teams with winning records. At home, they have been nearly unbeatable, going 9-2 (.818) in their last 11 such matchups. Conversely, the Phillies have faltered in the playoffs recently, posting a dismal 1-7 (.125) record over their last eight postseason contests.

Given the pronounced pitching mismatch, the Dodgers’ blistering win streak, and Nola’s season-long struggles, the home team is the best bet. They have the offensive firepower to jump on Nola early and provide more than enough run support for Yamamoto to cruise.

Pitcher Matchups-vs-Batter History: Yamamoto vs Nola

The Dodgers have a lot more experience against Nola (246 at-bats) than the Phillies do against Yamamoto (26). But the Philly starter has largely been effective against the dangerous LAD lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yamamoto has allowed a middling .269 average to the Phillies in 26 at-bats (seven hits) but only two of the hits were for extra bases and none left the yard. Trea Turner and Harrison Bader both clubbed doubles off the LA starter during his April 4th start (Yamamoto’s only start against the Phillies this season). He limited to Philadelphia lineup to just one unearned run on three hits and three walks over 6.0 IP with five strikeouts.

Los Angeles Dodgers Career Statistics vs Aaron Nola

The Dodgers have been limited to a .220 average and .645 OPS by Nola over the years, with nine home runs and 12 doubles in their 246 at-bats. Kike Hernandez has the best history against Nola, with three home runs and a 1.545 OPS in 11 at-bats. Mookie Betts has also hit him well with a .391 average, two homers, and 1.087 OPS in 23 at-bats.

Nola made just one start against Los Angeles this season, going 6.0 innings while allowing three earned runs on seven hits and a walk over 6.0 IP with just two Ks.

Dodgers vs Phillies Player Props

MLB player props as of October 8 at FanDuel.

The prop market heavily favors a dominant outing from Yamamoto. His strikeout line is set at a lofty 7.5, but with plus-money odds on the over. It’s an intriguing bet against a Phillies lineup that can be prone to strikeouts.

For Aaron Nola, the lines are much less optimistic. His strikeout total is just 2.5, and his outs line is a mere 8.5 (fewer than three full innings).

Given Mookie Betts’ career numbers against Nola, his total-bases prop of 1.5 at +105 is a strong value bet.

PHI Phillies vs LA Dodgers Game 3 Odds

Roughly three hours before first pitch, the best available Dodger moneyline is a short -184 at FanDuel. The longest odds on a Philadelphia win are +158 at Caesars.

The run total still ranges from 7.5 to 8.0. Under bettors can get 8.0 (-116) at DraftKings. Over bettors can jump on 7.5 (-120) at bet365.

Odds commentary as of 3:28 pm PT. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price if the MLB odds shift before first pitch.

Game 4 Odds Movement

The betting market has moved decisively in favor of the Dodgers since the lines opened. The LAD moneyline shortened from an opening line of -158 to its current -184 price, a 26-cent move caused by a flood of money on the home team.

The MLB public betting splits show 71% of moneyline tickets on the Dodgers as of 3:30 pm PT.