Arizona State vs Utah Prediction, Pick & Odds for Saturday Night Football

• Utah is a 10-point favorite over Arizona State in Big 12 action tonight
• Sun Devils starting QB Sam Leavitt will not play
• See below for my Arizona State vs Utah prediction and pick, plus odds for Saturday Night Football

If you’re going to sweat college football like a pro, you better be prepared to stay up late. Every Saturday, there’s at least one can’t-miss kickoff after dark, and Week 7 is no exception.

#21 Arizona State (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) faces Utah (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) on Saturday Night Football, with the Utes taking a ton of money leading up to the game per the latest college football odds.

Here is my Arizona State vs Utah prediction for Saturday night college football.

Arizona State vs Utah Prediction

This game opened Utah -4.5, but moved drastically towards the Utes once Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt was listed as doubtful. Utah money quickly moved the line to -7 and then -8.5, before finally moving to -10 once Leavitt was ruled out. There’s no question that Leavitt is instrumental to Arizona State’s offensive success, but the Sun Devils hate has gone too far.

For starters, there’s a competent backup in place. Jeff Sims has five previous years of college football experience under his belt, and has thrown over 700 passes against D1 opponents. The numbers aren’t sparkling, but he averages 7.0 yards per attempt and is also a threat with his legs.

Sims has rushed for 1,478 yards and 13 career scores. The Utes haven’t had a ton of time to prepare for him, so there’s a chance his style of play catches them off guard.

Also working in Sims’ favor is an excellent rushing attack behind him. Arizona State averages over 200 rushing yards per game, ripping off 5.2 yards per carry. If there’s a weakness in the Utah defense it’s versus the run, where they rank outside the top-70 in yards allowed per game and per carry.

I’m predicting the Sun Devils will lean on their run game extensively tonight, slowing down the game and keeping the Utes offense on the sidelines. This game features a low 44.5 point total, and it’s rare that a team pulls off a double-digit cover in a low-scoring game.

ASU vs Utah Pick

I think Sims and Co. can put up enough scoring to keep this game close, but the main reason I’m taking the points with the Sun Devils in my Arizona State vs Utah pick is because of their defense. That unit is playing like a CFP odds contender, ranking top-22 in yards per play allowed, while neutralizing every rushing attack in their path.

Arizona State is yielding just 2.5 yards per carry and 75 rushing yards per contest. Both those numbers are top-seven in the nation, and that’s forced opponents to lean pass heavy.

Arizona State Defensive Stats

Utah QB Devon Dampier has done an excellent job getting the ball out on time and moving the sticks through the air, but the Utes offense lacks an explosive element. They rank 134th in explosive passes this season, with Dampier completing just 2-of-16 throws of 20+ yards. It’s hard to build margin without the ability to score quickly, especially when you face a defense as talented as the Sun Devils.

The betting trends also heavily favor Arizona State in this spot. The Sun Devils are 6-0-1 ATS after gaining 450+ yards and 5-0 ATS after a bye week. They’ve also been money in conference play, going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Big 12 games.

Meanwhile, Utah has struggled in certain situations. The Utes are 0-5 ATS after throwing for 280+ passing yards and 0-4 ATS in October games. These trends suggest the market may be overvaluing Utah’s home field advantage, especially given the Utes are 0-5 in home conference games since joining the Big 12.

Arizona State vs Utah Odds

The best odds we can get on Arizona State +10 as of Saturday afternoon is -110 at Bet365. The Sun Devils are +290 underdogs to pull off the upset, while Utah comes back as a -370 moneyline favorite. I’d stay clear of the ASU moneyline and stick with the spread wager, but there is merit to also taking the under.

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Per the college football public betting trends, the under has cashed in nine of the Utes last 12 home games, while Arizona State is a perfect 5-0 to the under so far this season.

Arizona State vs Utah Head-to-Head

Recent history between these teams shows a competitive series, though Utah has dominated at home. The Utes have won three straight games in Salt Lake City and four of the last five overall meetings.

However, last year’s matchup tells an interesting story. Arizona State pulled off a 27-19 road upset on October 11, 2024, with the Sun Devils controlling the game on both sides of the ball. ASU’s balanced attack totaled 349 yards while holding Utah to 343 yards. That victory showed Arizona State can win this matchup, even in a hostile environment.

The 2023 meeting was a different story, as Utah demolished Arizona State 55-3 at home, rushing for 352 yards while limiting the Sun Devils to just 83 total yards. But that Arizona State team bears little resemblance to the 2025 version, which features one of the nation’s top defenses.

What’s particularly notable is Utah’s recent home struggles in conference play. The Utes are 0-5 in Big 12 home games since joining the conference, desperately needing to flip that script tonight. Meanwhile, Arizona State’s road success and strong defensive identity make them a live dog in this matchup.