USF vs Memphis Football Prediction, Pick and H2H Betting History

• The #18 South Florida Bulls are 6-point road favorites over Memphis in Week 9 American Conference action
• USF quarterback Byrum Brown has accounted for 18 touchdowns in his last four games
• Check out the USF vs Memphis football prediction, pick and H2H betting history below

Two 6-1 teams clash Saturday in a massive American Conference showdown. The #18 South Florida Bulls visit the Memphis Tigers in a game that’ll likely decide who stays in the College Football Playoff hunt, per the CFP Playoff Bracket.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast.

Here is my USF vs Memphis prediction, pick, and H2H betting history for Saturday afternoon.

USF vs Memphis Football Prediction

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 20 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD20X

CODE: SBD20X

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

Memphis looked unstoppable until last week’s stunning 31-24 loss to UAB as 24-point favorites. Now they’re catching 5.5 points at home against a Bulls team that’s crushing everyone in their path. The Tigers’ quarterback situation is the biggest concern heading into this one.

Brendon Lewis left last week’s game with a lower-body injury and is considered day-to-day. If he can’t go, freshman A.J. Hill takes over after struggling against UAB. That’s a massive dropoff for a Tigers offense that needs every weapon firing to keep pace with USF’s explosive attack.

USF’s Byrum Brown is playing at an elite level right now. He torched Florida Atlantic for 256 passing yards, three touchdowns, plus 111 rushing yards and another score. The dual-threat QB has racked up 329 rushing yards after contact this season, ranking fifth nationally. He’s basically impossible to bring down.

USF Offensive Stats

Memphis has dominated this series recently, but this USF team is different. The Bulls are tied for the national lead with 17 takeaways. According to PFF, they’ve transformed their run defense since Week 4, ranking 15th nationally in run defense grade and second in yards before contact allowed.

That’s bad news for a Memphis squad that leans heavily on its ground game (221.6 yards per game). The Tigers managed just 119 rushing yards against UAB, their lowest output all season.

USF vs Memphis Pick

I’m rolling with USF -6 as my official pick. The Bulls have covered in five of their last seven games, while Memphis is just 3-4 ATS over that same stretch. Yes, the Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss, but they haven’t faced an offense this explosive.

The X-factor is Memphis’s blitz-heavy scheme. They blitz 43% of the time (35th nationally), and Brown has struggled against pressure this season. Per PFF, he’s graded just 61.3 against the blitz (103rd nationally) with five of his seven turnovers coming when teams bring extra rushers.

But here’s the thing – Memphis has major issues in pass coverage. PFF has them ranked 94th in pass rush grade and 70th in coverage grade. USF’s receiving corps, led by Chas Nimrod (77.7 yards per game), should find plenty of space to operate.

Memphis needs Lewis healthy to have any shot at keeping this close. Without him, they’re too one-dimensional against a Bulls defense that’s been lights out against the run lately. USF should control this game from start to finish.

USF vs Memphis H2H Betting History

Memphis has owned this series lately, but the betting trends paint a more complex picture. The Tigers have won eight of the last 10 meetings outright, yet the Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Memphis.

Recent Head-to-Head Meetings

The total has been all over the place in this series. The Over hit in their wild 109-point shootout in 2023, but three of the last five meetings have gone Under. The road team is also 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings according to the college football public betting trends.

Most telling stat? Memphis dominated USF 21-3 last year in Tampa. But that was before Brown caught fire. Per PFF, he’s averaging 125+ rushing yards per game in his last three games, with 329 rushing yards after contact this season (5th nationally). This offense is humming at a different level.

USF vs Memphis Odds

The line opened at USF -3 but quickly jumped to -5.5 after sharp money hit the Bulls. It’s now climbed even higher at -6. That’s a massive spread move, hitting a key number.

The total has dropped all the way from 65.5 to 58.5, suggesting bettors expect Memphis to struggle offensively if Lewis can’t go.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Odds as of Oct. 25 at CFB betting apps. Check out US betting sites to get a bonus to bet on college football.

Give me the Bulls to cover on the road. Memphis has a conference loss while USF remains undefeated in AAC play. The Tigers can’t afford another slip-up, but they’re facing the wrong team at the wrong time.