Ravens vs Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Ravens travel to Miami tonight to face the Dolphins
• Lamar Jackson (hamstring) returns to face Miami’s bottom-5 ranked defense
• See below for my Ravens vs Dolphins picks and predictions, plus the closing lines

Roughly 1% of teams that start 1-5 in the NFL make the playoffs. The Ravens (2-5, 0-2 away) are looking to boost that number. Baltimore continues its playoff push tonight against the Dolphins (2-6, 1-2 home), and will do so with QB1 back in the lineup. Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is slated to return, prompting online sportsbooks to favor the Ravens heavily in the TNF odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Miami Gardens Stadium in Miami, FL, and on Amazon Prime.

Ravens vs Dolphins Picks and Predictions

Jackson couldn’t have picked a much softer landing spot for his return. The Dolphins defense is one of the worst in football, ranking bottom -ive in most key metrics. That includes EPA/play allowed, pass defense DVOA and defensive success rate, as well as rushing yards and rushing TD.

The Ravens offense, meanwhile, was top-10 in EPA/play, offensive success rate and TD drive percentage before Lamar went down, and bottom-five in each category while he was out.

Dolphins Defense Stats

No one stands to benefit more from Jackson’s return than Derrick Henry, which makes him a great bet tonight in the NFL player props market. Henry has been especially impactful in Ravens victories since he arrived in Baltimore last season, rushing for 100+ yards in 9 of 14 wins, and scoring a TD in 10 of those victories.

On the other side of the ball, no one is confusing this Baltimore defense with a Super Bowl odds contending unit. The Ravens are 30th in EPA/play allowed and 30th in success rate. Only three teams generate less pressure than Baltimore, and everyone knows the only way Tua Tagovailoa can have success is within a clean pocket.

The Miami offense actually showed signs of life last week, putting up 34 points against the Falcons. They ran the ball extremely well and Tua picked apart the Atlanta defense with quick hitters to his speedy receivers.

Tagovailoa has excelled against the Ravens in the past, and Baltimore’s lack of a pass rush could pave the way for a big game for him. Tua has a 66% completion rate in three starts versus Baltimore, averaging 288 passing yards and nearly 3 TD per game.

With both teams lined up for success, I love targeting a high scoring first half. I expect the Ravens to come out with their hair on fire, and run the ball down Miami’s throat. The moment the Dolphins bring extra bodies down Lamar can hit them for big plays on play action.

The Dolphins offense meanwhile, has proven to be most efficient with their scripted plays, and should be able to find early success on their first few drives to help push this first half total over.

Looking for more Ravens vs Dolphins plays? Check out the following:

• Ravens vs Dolphins same-game parlay
• Ravens vs Dolphins player props
• Ravens vs Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorers

BAL Ravens vs MIA Dolphins Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the first half total or any other line.

As for the full game market, you can get Miami +8.5 at DraftKings if you like the underdog. DK is also the best place to bet the Fins to pull off the upset at +360, while Bet365 is the sportsbook to visit if you’re on the Ravens against the spread.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, overs and a Dolphins cover are very much in play tonight. Miami games are 7-1 to the over this season, while the Fins are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 outings as a home dog.