Early NFL Props to Target for Week 10 – Justin Herbert, James Cook & More

• Week 10 brings prime player prop opportunities with defenses getting exposed midway through the season
• Justin Herbert, James Cook, and Amon-Ra St. Brown headline my top NFL player props for Week 10
• Check out my early Week 10 NFL player prop breakdowns, with the best value plays after the trade deadline

We’re coming off a clean 1-0 week in early NFL player props after injuries knocked out two of our bets before kickoff. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t lose, right?

The trade deadline has passed, and teams made their moves. Now we can expect to see defenses that have been on the field too long start to break down. That’s where the value lives for Week 10 NFL props

I’ve locked in on three NFL player props where everything lines up perfectly. These plays are built on players getting consistent volume against teams with major defensive weaknesses in those areas.

NFL Week 10 Player Props to Target

Projected NFL props odds as of November 4th, 2025. Sign up at our top recommended NFL betting apps to pounce on these props when they’re released.

NFL Props Pick: Justin Herbert Passing Yards

Herbert gets the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, and I love this spot. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been getting torched all season. They’re dead last in the league, giving up 278.3 yards through the air per game.

The Chargers quarterback is playing some of his best football right now. He’s thrown for 897 yards with eight touchdowns over his last three games. Last week against Tennessee, Herbert went for 250 yards and two scores through the air while adding 57 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

What really catches my eye is that Herbert has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games. His 67.7% completion rate is a career-best, and he’s averaging 265.6 yards per game through nine contests with 18 total touchdowns. Those are the numbers I’m looking for when betting NFL props.

Pittsburgh just gave up over 300 passing yards to Indianapolis, and the Colts aren’t exactly lighting it up through the air this season. The Steelers’ secondary shows real problems at safety, where they’re allowing a 110.9 passer rating. That’s where Herbert can do damage with his deep-ball accuracy.

The weapons are there, too. Ladd McConkey is heating up with 350 receiving yards over his last five games and leads the team in recent targets. Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen give Herbert options all over the field, while Oronde Gadsden has emerged as another reliable threat.

The Steelers vs Chargers odds have LA as three-point home favorites with the total at 44.5. This should be a fairly competitive game where the Chargers need to keep throwing. Even in Greg Roman’s run-heavy system, Herbert’s still getting 36.1 attempts per game, so the volume will be there.

Mike Tomlin himself called out Herbert’s complete arsenal this week, noting he can beat you with his arm or his legs. When these teams met last year, Herbert wasn’t healthy. Now he’s rolling and should light up this secondary on primetime. This is one of my favorite NFL props for Week 10.

• Early Bet: Justin Herbert over 252.5 passing yards

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NFL Props Pick: James Cook Rushing Yards

Cook’s been one of the best backs in football this season, and now he gets Miami. The Dolphins can’t stop the run to save their lives. They’re giving up 145.6 rushing yards per game, fourth-worst in the league. This is exactly the matchup I want for rushing yard props.

The Bills’ running back just posted his second straight 100-yard game and has hit triple digits in five of eight contests this year. Through eight games, Cook has 867 yards on the ground with an excellent 5.7 yards per carry. That efficiency is no fluke either.

Here’s what sold me on this NFL prop. Cook just set a career-high with 28 touches against Kansas City, and his 88.9% positive run rate shows elite efficiency. He’s getting the ball on 51.9% of his snaps, which tells you Buffalo trusts him completely with the workload.

Miami just got run over by Derrick Henry for 119 yards on Thursday Night Football. Before that, Rico Dowdle and Kimani Vidal found success against this front seven. When teams commit to the run against Miami, they get results every single time.

I also love that Cook already torched Miami for 108 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries back in Week 3. He knows exactly how to attack this defense. Buffalo’s coming off back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Carolina, and they’re rolling right now with Cook leading the way.

The Bills vs Dolphins line has Buffalo favored by double digits, which is perfect for our NFL props play. Buffalo should control this game from start to finish and keep feeding Cook. Miami’s offense has been terrible lately, scoring just six points in each of their last two losses, so game script favors the run.

Cook is averaging 20.8 touches per game with an 18.3% broken tackle rate. When you get that kind of volume against a bottom-tier run defense, the yards come easy. This is a smash spot for Cook’s rushing props.

• Early Bet: James Cook over 83.5 rushing yards

NFL Props Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards

The Sun God gets a great bounce-back spot this week against Washington. The Commanders’ defense just let Sam Darnold complete his first 14 passes in the first half last week. Their secondary ranks fifth-worst in yards allowed per game, and I’m all over St. Brown’s receiving props here.

St. Brown stayed productive despite Detroit’s loss to Minnesota last week, catching nine balls for 97 yards on 13 targets. Through eight games, ARSB has 635 yards and leads the entire league with seven touchdowns. That’s the consistency I want in my NFL props.

What makes St. Brown special for props betting is his target share. He commands 31.9% of team targets and 38% of team air yards. That 79.7% catch rate is elite, and his 2.7% drop rate might be even better. When Goff looks for him on 34.1% of his routes, you know that’s trust you can bet on.

The Lions are hungry after getting stunned by Minnesota coming off the bye. Detroit’s offense looked out of sync for once, but that just means they’ll come out firing against Washington. This is a classic get-right game for one of the league’s best offenses.

I dug into Washington’s defensive numbers, and they’re ugly. They’re allowing a 103.2 passer rating overall, with their safeties giving up a 133.2 rating while the linebackers allow 106.9. St. Brown works every level of the field from both the slot and outside, so he’ll find the soft spots all game long.

The Lions vs Commanders matchup sets up perfectly for Detroit’s passing game. St. Brown has seven-plus catches in six of eight games this season, showing that floor we love for NFL props. Against a secondary that couldn’t handle Sam Darnold, St. Brown should absolutely feast.

His connection with Goff is money. The route-running, the separation, and the trust between them is elite. Coming off a loss without finding paydirt, I expect St. Brown to remind everyone why he’s one of the best receivers in football. Lock in this NFL prop early before the line moves.

• Early Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 14-13

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