Raiders vs Broncos Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Broncos are big home favorites tonight versus the Raiders on TNF
• Las Vegas is 0-2 ATS as touchdown plus road underdogs this season
• See below for my Raiders vs Broncos picks and predictions, plus the closing odds

Winning on a short week is daunting enough. Winning on three days rest after playing an overtime game the week before is nearly impossible. That’s the task at hand for the Raiders (2-6, 1-3 away) tonight versus the Broncos (7-2, 4-0 home), and online sportsbooks don’t like their chances. They’ve pegged Denver as 8.5-point favorites in the TNF odds, as the Broncos look to extend their AFC West lead.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Empower Field at Mile High, in Denver, CO, and on Amazon Prime.

Raiders vs Broncos Picks and Predictions

If this game was played on Sunday, I’d seriously consider Las Vegas in my Raiders vs Broncos prediction. But that’s not the case, and it’s impossible to overstate how bad a spot this is for Las Vegas.

The Raiders just played a full five quarters on Sunday in their OT loss versus the Jaguars. 30 teams have played an overtime game on Sunday and then suited up again the following Thursday night, and only five have covered the spread.

It also doesn’t help that Las Vegas is travelling to Denver, who own one of the biggest home field advantages. The Broncos are 4-0 at home, and have beaten up bad teams all season.

Denver’s put up 28+ points on the Bengals, Giants and Cowboys, the three weakest defenses they’ve faced. They’ve outscored those three 105-59, and have covered in three of their four home games. The Raiders defense is just as bad as the teams mentioned, especially against the pass. They rank 25th in EPA/pass allowed, 27th in pressure rate, and 30th in coverage grade.

That opens the door for a Bo Nix ceiling game, which is why he’s a worthy target in the NFL player props. 8 of Nix’s 17 TD passes came against Cincy, New York and Dallas, and those defenses are responsible for the bulk of his EPA production.

On the other side of the ball, good luck putting up enough points to cover against this Denver defense. The Broncos are a legit Super Bowl odds contender because of this unit, leading the NFL in defensive success rate.

Broncos Defense Stats

Denver is also top-six in pressure rate and EPA/pass and run allowed, and are going to make the Raiders one dimensional in this matchup. That’s because Las Vegas’ o-line is one of the worst run blocking units in football, while Ashton Jeanty has been stuffed behind the line of scrimmage at a higher rate than any other running back.

Yes, the Broncos will be without NFL DPOY odds contender Patrick Surtain, but the Raiders just traded away their most polished wide receiver Jakobi Myers. That means a steady dose of Brock Bowers is in store for Denver, but they’ve defended him well in the past. In two games against the Broncos, Bowers has caught just 12 of 22 targets (54.5%).

Las Vegas is just 0-2 against the spread as 7+ point underdogs this season, failing to cover by an average of 22.5 points. I’ll happily lay Denver -8.5 in this spot as my favorite Raiders vs Broncos pick.

Looking for more Ravens vs Dolphins plays? Check out the following:

• Raiders vs Broncos same-game parlay
• Raiders vs Broncos player props
• Raiders vs Broncos Anytime Touchdown Scorers

LV Raiders vs DEN Broncos Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the spread or any other market. You can get Broncos -8.5 over at FanDuel, while some books have the line listed at -9.5. If you’re betting the under, make sure you check out DraftKings. They’re hanging a 43.5-point over/under which a full point higher than most of the other books.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, Denver is an 8.5-point favorite for the first time since their Super Bowl winning 2015 season, when Peyton Manning was still under center.