Early NFL Props to Target for Week 11 – Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa & More

• Week 11 brings a bounce-back opportunity for NFL props after going 0 for 3 last week
• Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, and Woody Marks headline my top NFL player props for Week 11
• Check out my early Week 11 NFL player prop breakdowns with the best value plays following last week’s cold spell

Last week was rough. A complete shutout. This business has a way of humbling you real quick, but that’s why we keep showing up week after week. You can’t let one bad outing mess with your process. Week 11 has some softer defenses and cleaner matchups that should get us back on track.

I’ve found three Week 11 props where the numbers and matchups are too good to pass up. These NFL player props are built on recent trends, specific matchups, and players who’ve already shown they can hit these numbers. Let’s get back in the win column.

NFL Week 11 Player Props to Target

Projected odds as of November 11, 2025. Be ready to jump on these props at our top-rated NFL betting apps as soon as they drop.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Caleb Williams Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards

Williams just threw a 58-yard touchdown to Colston Loveland two weeks ago against Cincinnati, so the arm strength is clearly there. He’s already connected on five passes of 40-plus yards through just nine games, putting him on pace for nearly 10 of these shots this season.

The Bears face a vulnerable Vikings pass defense. Minnesota ranks 27th, allowing 19.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They’re giving up 161 passing yards per game and have managed just three interceptions all season. That tells you how easy it’s been to attack them.

What really stands out, though, is that former NFL coach Dave Wannstedt just told the Vikings this week that Williams “almost performs better when he’s under pressure than when he’s in the flow of the game.” Wannstedt pointed out that Williams avoided six potential sacks in the Giants game, turning broken plays into chunk yardage.

Minnesota already saw Williams in Week 1 when he put up 210 yards and a score. He’s sharper now, with more weapons. Rome Odunze has a 58-yarder from him this year, DJ Moore can stretch any defense, and Cole Kmet is a threat after the catch. Williams averages 8.2 air yards per attempt, always hunting for chunk plays.

This is a division game where the Bears are fighting for first place in the NFC North. Chicago sits at 6-3 and can’t afford to play conservative against a struggling Vikings team at 4-5. Expect aggressive play-calling early, and when the Bears get their shots, Williams will be looking deep.

The total is set at 48.5, the highest on the weekend slate. Vegas expects a shootout. That environment sets up perfectly for the over on longest completion. You really only need one deep shot to cash this, and Williams is going to take multiple attempts downfield against this secondary.

• Early Bet: Caleb Williams over 36.5 longest completion

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions

Tua just threw two interceptions against Buffalo last Sunday, bringing his season total to 13 picks in just 10 games. That’s 1.3 interceptions per game, and it’s been getting worse lately with 1.8 picks per game over his last five starts.

This has become a real problem, not just a small sample thing. Tua’s had four separate games this season with multiple interceptions. He’s getting picked off on 4.5% of his passes, which ranks among the worst in the league.

Now the Dolphins travel to Madrid for an early game against Washington. International trips and jet lag often cause sloppy play and mistakes. The Commanders rank 18th against quarterbacks but give up 24.8 fantasy points per game, so there will be chances for both big plays and turnovers.

Washington has five interceptions and holds quarterbacks to a 67.9% completion rate. They’re not elite, but they can force turnovers when quarterbacks get sloppy, and Tua has been sloppy all year.

The betting market is telling you something too. Sharp money is hammering the under on the total at 95.46%, expecting a low-scoring, mistake-filled game. That fits perfectly with Tua throwing an interception. The travel, early start, and Tua’s habit of forcing throws all point toward at least one turnover.

Tua has only avoided an interception once in his last six games. The over is sitting at a very reasonable number for a guy throwing 1.3 picks per game who’s about to play in one of the most turnover-prone environments possible.

• Early Bet: Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 interceptions thrown

NFL Player Prop Pick: Woody Marks Anytime TD Scorer

Marks had a huge game against Tennessee in Week 4, racking up 119 total yards and two touchdowns. Now he’s getting another crack at the Titans, and this rookie has only gotten better since that breakout game.

Last week, Marks dominated Jacksonville, playing a season-high 80% of Houston’s snapps. That’s massive for a fourth-round pick still in his first year. He rewarded that trust with 14 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. Nick Chubb barely touched the field with just five carries. There’s no competition here anymore. Marks is the guy.

Tennessee’s defense is especially vulnerable to running backs. They’re ranked seventh worst in the league, giving up 23.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. The Titans allow 191 rushing yards per game to running backs with 12 touchdowns on the ground and another three through the air. That’s a lot of scoring chances for a back getting this kind of volume.

Marks is getting the bulk of Houston’s goal-line work and has scored in back-to-back games now. Since Week 7, he ranks as RB19 in PPR scoring per game, showing consistent production week in and week out.

What separates Marks from your average backup is his dual-threat ability. He’s scored both rushing and receiving touchdowns this year, making him dangerous from anywhere inside the 20. With 18 red zone touches and 4 total touchdowns, he’s proven he can finish when given chances near the goal line.

Houston is a 7-point favorite on the road, which means they should control this game and get plenty of scoring chances. The Texans are averaging 22.4 points per game right now, and Marks has become their primary weapon in short-yardage situations. He scored last week, he’s got the volume, he’s facing the same team he torched before, and you’re getting +100 on a guy who’s clearly found his rhythm. Sometimes it really is that simple.

• Early Bet: Woody Marks anytime TD scorer

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 14-16

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