Jets vs Patriots Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Patriots are big home favorites tonight versus the Jets on TNF
• Justin Fields ranks 30th in EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks
• See below for my Jets vs Patriots picks and predictions, plus the closing odds

It’s an AFC East grudge match tonight on Thursday Night Football as the Jets (2-7, 1-2 away) visit the Patriots (8-2, 3-2 home). New England enters play riding a seven-game winning streak, and online sportsbooks expect a convincing win in this matchup per the latest TNF odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, MA, and on Amazon Prime.

Jets vs Patriots Picks and Predictions

Depending on where you look, the Patriots are as high as 13.5 point favorites tonight. I can’t get to that number, but that doesn’t mean I’m running to the window to bet New York. Instead, I’m betting the under in my Jets vs Patriots predictions and here’s why.

Let’s start with the New York side of things. This is a team that won a football game last week despite throwing for only 54 yards. That kind of performance might be common in high school teams that run the wishbone offense, but this is the NFL in 2025!

To make matters worse, 42 of those yards came on a screen pass to Breece Hall. Justin Fields completed two passes to wide receivers, and I guarantee you couldn’t pick those players our of a lineup. Fields will need to throw tonight to keep New York competitive, but all signs point to him underachieving.

Of 33 qualified quarterbacks, Fields ranks 30th in adjusted EPA/play and EPA+completion percentage over expectation. He’s 29th in air yards per attempt and 26th in success rate. His biggest strength is his legs, a quality he can use versus blitz happy teams to scramble and pick up yards. That won’t be the case tonight. New England blitzes at a bottom-10 rate, and Fields ranks 32nd in EPA/play when facing four or fewer rushers.

Jets Offensive Stats

So the Jets should run the ball right? Good luck against this Patriots front. New England is seventh in EPA/rush allowed, and leads the league in rushing yards surrendered to enemy running backs.

To add insult to injury, Garrett Wilson, arguably New York’s best skill player, is out tonight. Needless to say, points are going to be tough to come by.

New England meanwhile, has morphed into a Super Bowl odds contender. Drake Maye is playing at an NFL MVP odds level, ranking top-three in virtually every advanced passing metric.

Maye’s ceiling is through the roof, but it’s fair to question just how much he’s going to throw tonight. The Pats should be playing from ahead for the bulk of the night, and a more run heavy game plan could be on deck.

That’s good news for TreVeyon Henderson, who’s fresh off a career-high 147 rushing yards last week. The Jets defense is significantly more susceptible versus the run than the pass, ranking 27th in EPA/rush allowed. New York traded away Quinnen Williams prior to the deadline, their best run defender, while two other starting defensive linemen are questionable for tonight.

I have no doubt the Pats will be able to move the ball, but on a short week versus a divisional opponent, efficiency likely won’t be as high as in recent games. Even if New England comes out hot, they’re not hanging 35+ points on New York tonight, and I don’t expect enough push back from the Jets lifeless offense to get this game over the total.

Looking for more Jets vs Patriots plays? Check out the following:

• Jets vs Patriots same-game parlay
• Jets vs Patriots player props
• Jets vs Patriots expert picks and predictions

NY Jets vs NE Patriots Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. You can get under 43.5 at -112 odds at DraftKings, while most other books have the total listed half a point lower. The spread is sitting anywhere from Pats -12.5 to -13.5 depending on where you wager, while the longest odds on a New York upset is north of +600.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, sharp action is on the under. That side of the total is accounting 44% of the bets and a whopping 67% of the total.