Oregon vs Indiana Public Betting Splits & Handle Report: Where is Money Going?

• Indiana beat Oregon by 10 points in the regular season
• The public is heavily behind the Hoosiers to cover the 3.5-point spread Friday night in the Peach Bowl
• There is a betting contrast in the Over/Under

Indiana beat Oregon by 10 points in Week 7, in Eugene.

The Hoosiers are favored by 3.5 points when the teams meet again Friday night, this time in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal in Atlanta. Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm, ET (ESPN). The winner advances to the national championship game in suburban Miami on Monday, Jan. 19.

Sounds pretty simple, right?

From a wagering perspective, this Playoff semifinal presents an intriguing puzzle that extends far beyond the traditional favorite-underdog narrative. While Indiana enters as the betting favorite, the early action across sportsbooks reveals an interesting divide between casual bettors and sharp money. This split creates compelling opportunities as we analyze where the real value might emerge.

Oregon vs Indiana Public Betting Splits

The college football public betting marketplace is painting a complex picture, with notable divergence between ticket count and actual money flow across all major markets.

The public’s confidence in Indiana is unmistakable, with the Hoosiers attracting 66% of spread tickets and a commanding 77% of moneyline action. However, a sharp signal emerges when examining the Oregon moneyline. Despite capturing only 23% of total bets, the Ducks have drawn 35% of the actual money wagered, indicating larger, more sophisticated wagers are finding value at +151 odds. The total market presents a similar contrarian opportunity, where the Under has secured 40% of the money from just 37% of tickets, suggesting professional bettors are anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the public expects.

Strategic Analysis: When to Follow and When to Fade the Public

Determining whether to align with or oppose public sentiment requires examining the underlying metrics that drive game outcomes.

Backing Indiana on the Spread: Public Gets It Right

The public’s strong support for Indiana -3.5 appears well-founded when examining offensive efficiency metrics. The Hoosiers are averaging 41.6 points per game. Oregon is at 37.9 points, but it’s worth remembering that the Ducks only scored one offensive touchdown in their 30-20 loss to Indiana earlier this season. (Oregon’s defense scored a touchdown on an interception return.) More critically, Indiana excels in situational football, where games are won and lost. IU’s third-down conversion rate of 56.5% significantly outpaces Oregon’s 45.4%, while its red zone efficiency of 91.2% dwarfs the Ducks’ 84.7% mark.

These numbers tell the story of a team that sustains drives and capitalizes on scoring opportunities at an elite level. Indiana’s ability to convert in crucial situations provides a statistical foundation for covering the 3.5-point spread, making the public consensus a logical position to support.

Contrarian Value on the Total: Fading Public Optimism

While supporting the public on the spread makes statistical sense, the total market presents a classic contrarian opportunity. The majority of bettors (63%) are backing the Over 48.5, but the money distribution tells a different story entirely. (They combined for 50 in the first game, by the way.)

Professional bettors are clearly identifying value on the Under, as evidenced by the 40% money share from just 37% of tickets. This sharp money movement suggests that while both teams possess explosive offensive capabilities, factors beyond raw scoring averages may limit total production. Playoff atmospheres often tighten defensive schemes, and Indiana’s defense is on an absolute heater. In addition to holding Oregon to a single offensive touchdown, the Hoosiers held Ohio State to a single touchdown in the Big Ten Championship and Alabama to a field goal in the Playoff quarterfinals. Only two teams this season — Old Dominion (2) and Penn State (3) — scored at least two offensive touchdowns against the Hoosiers this season.

The contrarian play on Under 48.5 aligns with professional money movement and offers value against inflated public expectations for a high-scoring playoff showcase.