Europa League Betting – Round of 16 Picks

Last week, I gave you my picks for the first leg of the Europa League’s Round of 16. I went two for three in the first series of games (both of my overs won, but Fiorentina only managed a draw), and hopefully I can up that to perfection this week as the teams get set for the second and final leg of the round.

Second-leg games in European competitions are usually loaded with goals, and I don’t expect anything different on Thursday (March 19).

After surveying the field, three games again stand out as ones I’m keen to put some money on.

Dynamo Moscow vs. Napoli | 1:00 PM ET

Napoli lead the series after winning 3-1 at home in the first leg.

“It was a difficult game, especially after they scored so early, but fortunately we won and can go to Russia with a good margin,” Napoli’s Gonzalo Higuain told the press. “We will suffer in the second leg, but Napoli can progress in the competition. I don’t think it’s a problem that we didn’t get the fourth goal. We have all it takes to reach the quarter-finals.”

This second game will have the home team trying to score early and often, which means Napoli can sit back and find open spaces with counterattacks. This will play right into the hands of the defensively stout squad. Napoli haven’t lost in six Europa League games and have conceded just once in that span.

A Napoli win is currently +162 in the moneyline. That number has good enough value since Napoli defends extremely well and will be attacking a desperate opponent.

My pick: Napoli moneyline (+162).

Inter Milan vs. Wolfsburg | 4:05 PM ET

Inter is down 3-1 against Wolfsburg after a terrible showing in Germany; yet, they have the best resume of any teams left in the tournament and won’t go down without a fight.

Inter Milan are currently on an 11-game home unbeaten run in Europe and Wolfsburg have never kept a clean sheet against an Italian team. Inter will push the pace incessantly from the opening kick and, lone way or another, goals are likely to come (either for or against). The game total is at 2.5. I’ll be taking the over.

My pick: over 2.5.

Villarreal vs. Sevilla | 4:05 PM ET

Sevilla have a solid 3-1 lead that gives them a huge edge heading into the second game. The Yellow Submarine has no other option but to push the pace and look for the win. That will leave too much open space for Sevilla, who have scored 12 goals in their last five games (all competitions). The trends also favor another Sevilla victory, as the team has won three of its last four Europa League games versus other Spanish teams.

My pick: Sevilla moneyline (+110).

(Photo credit: Sona Hovasapyan (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)