2026 Heisman Odds: Mensah Takes the Lead

• 2026 Heisman Trophy odds are live for the college football season
• Darian Mensah is the new favorite at +150 after Jeremiah Smith slipped to +300 in Ohio State’s upset loss
• See the full 2026 Heisman Trophy odds and movement below

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The 2026 Heisman Trophy race has a new leader. Miami QB Darian Mensah has taken over the top of the board at +150 after Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith fell to +300 in the Buckeyes’ 30-18 upset loss at USC. Miami teammate Malachi Toney is right there at +325, giving the Hurricanes two of the top three on the board.

Check out the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds available at our most trusted sportsbooks below. The graphs underneath the table show each player’s average odds to win the 2026 Heisman.

2026 Heisman Trophy Odds

Darian Mensah leads the board at +150, the new favorite after a clean road win at North Carolina. Jeremiah Smith slipped to +300 following Ohio State’s upset loss at USC, and Malachi Toney sits at +325 just behind him. CJ Carr (+1175) and Trinidad Chambliss (+1275) both shortened back into the chase group. The top of the race reshuffled hard over the weekend.

CJ Carr (+1175) and Trinidad Chambliss (+1275) fill out the next tier behind the top three. Smith and Toney give the field two receivers near the top, a rare look for a QB-driven award.

Drew Mestemaker (+4100), Jesse Legree (+4700), and Gunner Stockton (+4900) sit a tier down, with Arch Manning (+37500) well off the pace. Manning keeps falling after a rough stretch, with his starting job in question at Texas. Julian Sayin, the only returning 2025 Heisman finalist, is off the board with a shoulder injury that could end his season.

*Heisman odds above are updated every 15-60 minutes from top-rated college football betting apps, including BetMGM and ScoreBet.

Odds to Win 2026 Heisman Trophy

Here are some notes on the Heisman Trophy odds movement:

• [November 1] Darian Mensah takes over the top of the board, in from +300 to +150, after a clean 22-of-29, 274-yard, three-touchdown day in Miami’s 38-35 win at North Carolina. Jeremiah Smith slips from the lead to +300 after Ohio State’s 30-18 upset loss at USC dropped the Buckeyes to 6-2. Malachi Toney climbs to +325 on a seven-catch, two-touchdown night, while CJ Carr shortens to +1175 and Trinidad Chambliss to +1275 back into the chase.
• [October 25] Malachi Toney surges into the top three, in from +2150 to +350, after a school-record 16 catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns in No. 1 Miami’s 52-23 rout of Pitt. Teammate Darian Mensah shortens to +300 on a 387-yard, four-touchdown day, giving the Hurricanes a two-man push behind Jeremiah Smith, who holds at -125 on a bye. Trinidad Chambliss drifts to +2250 and CJ Carr to +2025, while Oregon State WR Jesse Legree climbs onto the board at +2175.
• [October 19] Jeremiah Smith’s lead shrinks, out from -200 to -125, after Ohio State QB Julian Sayin left the 19-15 win at No. 5 Indiana with a shoulder injury that will sideline him several weeks. Darian Mensah surges to a clear second, in from +1050 to +325, after three touchdowns in a double-overtime win over Florida State. Trinidad Chambliss keeps climbing, in from +1425 to +650, while CJ Carr drifts to +1600.
• [October 11] Jeremiah Smith extends his lead to odds-on, in from +100 to -200, after two more scoring grabs in a 45-16 rout of Maryland that kept Ohio State unbeaten. Keelon Russell drifts hard, out from +700 to +1725, after Alabama’s first loss, a 20-17 home defeat to No. 2 Georgia. Gunner Stockton surges, in from +2850 to +1325, as the Bulldogs’ quarterback in that win, while Arch Manning slides to +6975.
• [October 4] Jeremiah Smith pulls clear toward even money, in from +275 to +100, after 11 catches for 206 yards and two scores in a 31-14 win at Iowa, his second straight 200-yard game. Keelon Russell surges into the top three, in from +1325 to +700, after throwing for 285 yards and four total touchdowns in Alabama’s 56-23 rout of Mississippi State. CJ Carr shortens to +750, while Kamario Taylor collapses to +3300 in the Bulldogs’ loss.
• [September 27] Jeremiah Smith takes over the top of the board, in from +950 to +275, after 12 catches for 217 yards and a program-record-tying four touchdowns against Illinois. Trinidad Chambliss drifts from +300 to +1100 after Ole Miss lost 52-28 at Florida, and Arch Manning slides to +2575 after a shaky win over Tennessee. Kamario Taylor climbs to +525 and Florida’s Jadan Baugh joins the board at +1150 off a three-touchdown day.
• [September 20] Trinidad Chambliss surges into the co-favorite mix, in from +1300 to +475, after out-dueling Sam Leavitt in a 32-24 upset of No. 7 LSU. Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two scores and ran in the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Darian Mensah holds the top at +400, while Jeremiah Smith drifts to +925 and Julian Sayin slides to +2625 after Ohio State’s loss.
• [September 13] Jeremiah Smith surges to co-favorite, in from +1275 to +700, after an eight-catch, 164-yard night against Texas. Darian Mensah shortens to +525 to share the top. Arch Manning comes in to +850 after leading a comeback over No. 1 Ohio State, while CJ Carr drifts to +1000.
• [September 5] Darian Mensah surges to the front of the board, in from +1150 to +600 as Miami’s offense draws heavy Heisman support to open the season. CJ Carr drifts from +750 to +800, with Arch Manning out to +925.
• [August 22] Keelon Russell wins the Alabama starting quarterback job over Austin Mack and holds at +2500. CJ Carr stays the favorite at +700, with Arch Manning at +800.
• [August 12] CJ Carr shortens from +750 to +700 to pull clear as the favorite, with Arch Manning in from +775 to +750.
• [July 1] Brendan Sorsby comes off the board for good. The NCAA denied his eligibility and he dropped his lawsuit. He’ll sit out 2026.
• [June 30] Darian Mensah climbs to +1050, third-shortest on the board, as Miami buzz builds. CJ Carr holds as the favorite with Arch Manning just behind.
• [April 9] CJ Carr and Arch Manning are tied at +775. Trinidad Chambliss tightens from +900 to +975 after the Mississippi Supreme Court denies the NCAA’s appeal of his eligibility ruling.
• [January 15] Arch Manning opens as the lone favorite at +750. CJ Carr sits just behind at +800. Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and Josh Hoover share the next tier at +1100.

2026 Heisman Trophy Favorites

Darian Mensah, Miami QB (+150)

Mensah is the new Heisman favorite at +150, the top quarterback on the board after taking the lead from Smith. He carved up North Carolina for 274 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-29 passing with no picks in a 38-35 road win, the kind of clean, high-volume day voters notice. He also sits atop our national championship odds conversation.

He inherited a loaded offense that just won the national title, and Malachi Toney has become his go-to weapon. The Hurricanes haven’t had a Heisman winner since Gino Torretta in 1992. With Smith’s team taking a loss, Mensah is now the one in front and controlling his own race down the stretch.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (+300)

Smith slipped to +300 and lost the lead after Ohio State’s 30-18 upset loss at USC dropped the Buckeyes to 6-2. He still caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown from backup QB Luke Fahey, but the defeat cost him the top spot. He’s already the program’s career leader in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown catches.

The path still looks a lot like DeVonta Smith’s 2020 Heisman run. A receiver has to be undeniable to win this award, and Smith is playing that way. The wild card is at quarterback: with Julian Sayin hurt, a backup throwing him the ball can cap his volume, and that uncertainty is part of what let Mensah pass him.

CJ Carr, Notre Dame QB (+1175)

Carr shortened back to +1175 and stays firmly in the mix. He broke out as a redshirt freshman in 2025, throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns against just six interceptions while completing 67% of his passes, and he has carried that form into this season.

The Irish reloaded around him with portal adds like DT Tionne Gray (Oregon), WR Quincy Porter (Ohio State), and EDGE Keon Keeley (Alabama). Carr is still a top-five projected pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The talent, schedule, and CFP path keep him in the conversation.

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB (+1275)

Chambliss shortened to +1275, back into the chase group after sitting in the next tier last week. The Division II Ferris State transfer still has the résumé that made him a story. He finished 8th in 2025 Heisman voting and led Ole Miss to its first-ever CFP appearance.

His dual-threat game keeps Ole Miss in the SEC race, and the market has moved his number back toward the top tier. A signature win down the stretch would put his name right back in the thick of the chase.

Jesse Legree, Oregon State WR (+4700)

Legree drifted to +4700 but remains the dark-horse receiver with the loudest stat line. The Oregon State wideout leads every receiver in the country with 1,040 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns through seven games. Those are numbers voters cannot ignore.

The catch is the stage. Oregon State does not get the Saturday spotlight that Smith and Toney do, so Legree needs the big counting stats to keep piling up. If he stays on this pace, he is the dark-horse receiver with the loudest stat line.

Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB

Sayin’s Heisman push is over for now. He landed on his throwing shoulder on a fourth-quarter hit at Indiana, an injury that could end his season and has dropped him off the main Heisman board. He’s the only returning 2025 Heisman finalist, having thrown for 3,610 yards and 32 TDs against just 8 interceptions as a true sophomore while completing a nation-best 77% of his passes.

The injury stalls any climb for now. Even healthy, Sayin was stuck behind Jeremiah Smith in a receiver-first offense; the time missed likely ends his realistic case this season.

Arch Manning, Texas QB (+37500)

Manning has fallen all the way to +37500, a long way from the preseason favorite he was in January. A rough stretch has stalled his Heisman push, and there are now questions about his hold on the starting job. His earlier signature win over No. 1 Ohio State is still on the résumé, but the numbers have not backed it up.

Texas loaded up the offense for year two with Auburn transfer Cam Coleman (1,306 yards, 13 TDs), RB Raleek Brown, and five-star RB Derrek Cooper. The talent is there for a second-half surge, but Manning has to clean up the mistakes to climb back into the top tier.

Non-Quarterbacks to Watch

Malachi Toney, Miami (FL) WR (+325)

Toney sits at +325, in the top three and the best receiver bet on the board. He caught seven passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns in Miami’s 38-35 win at North Carolina, adding to a run of big games that have made him a real Heisman threat. He broke the school’s single-game receiving record earlier in the month against Pitt.

He led the nation with 109 receptions as a true freshman in 2025, and now he’s the focal point of a title-contending offense. With Mensah feeding him, the Hurricanes have a receiver-QB duo that could put both players in New York.

Dark Horse 2026 Heisman Contenders

Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State QB (+4100)

Mestemaker shortened to +4100, one of the better Heisman numbers in the Big 12. The North Texas transfer has lit up the Cowboys’ offense and forced his way into the national conversation after a walk-on start to his career. He has the volume passing numbers the voters notice.

The number is still long because Oklahoma State has to keep winning for a Big 12 quarterback to break through. But if the Cowboys stay in the league race, Mestemaker is the dark horse putting up the loudest stat line.

Jadan Baugh, Florida RB (+30000)

Baugh drifted to +30000 as Florida’s season slipped, but he’s still the best running back bet on the board. He put himself in the race with 142 yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries in Florida’s upset of Ole Miss, the kind of workhorse day that gets a back noticed in this award.

A running back has a steep climb in a QB-driven award, and the long number reflects it. But if Florida gets back on track and Baugh piles up volume in the SEC, he’s the skill-position longshot with the most juice.

Heisman Trophy Betting Trends

• Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heisman Trophies
• Five of the last six Heisman-winning QBs were transfers
• Since 1988, every Heisman winner has come from a team that won at least 9 games
• Since 2013, five Heisman winners have gone on to be the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick
• Fernando Mendoza is the fourth straight transfer QB to win the Heisman

Heisman Odds History: Preseason vs Closing

Want proof that the Heisman favorite rarely wins? Here’s how the last 10 winners opened vs where they closed, plus the preseason favorite that year.

Just one of the last 10 preseason favorites actually won. That’s why preseason longshots like Mendoza (+5500), Burrow (+4000), and Jackson (+10000) are where the real Heisman value lives.

How to Bet the 2026 Heisman

Heisman futures move sharply throughout the season. The earlier you bet, the better your price. Here are the key windows:

• Preseason (now through August): Best value on longshots and breakout candidates. Mendoza was +5500 last preseason and closed at -1000.
• Weeks 1-3: Sweet spot for spotting surging contenders before their odds tighten. Mendoza moved from +5500 to a single-digit favorite by midseason.
• October-November: Lines tighten dramatically after key signature games. Value is mostly gone on the favorite by this point.
• Conference Championship Weekend: Final big swing window. The award is essentially decided here in most years.

Who Usually Wins the Heisman Trophy?

Quarterbacks have owned the Heisman for years. Travis Hunter broke through in 2024 as a two-way player, but Mendoza put the award right back in a quarterback’s hands in 2025.

Recent Heisman Winners

Since 2000, quarterbacks have won 21 of 25 Heismans. The other four winners: Derrick Henry (RB), DeVonta Smith (WR), Travis Hunter (CB/WR), and Reggie Bush (RB).

Heisman Trophies by Conference

The SEC leads all conferences with nine Heisman winners since 2000. The Big Ten picked up its third with Mendoza’s win for Indiana. Conference realignment has shaken up the traditional pecking order.

Where Can You Bet on the Heisman Trophy?

The main sports betting apps offer Heisman Trophy betting, including BetMGM and ScoreBet. Some sites pull their Heisman odds on Saturdays during games but they’ll be back once the books adjust for the day’s results.

Heisman Odds FAQ

Who's the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman?

Miami QB Darian Mensah is the 2026 Heisman favorite at +150 after taking over the top of the board. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith slipped to +300 following the Buckeyes’ upset loss at USC, with Miami WR Malachi Toney at +325 just behind. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (+1175) and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+1275) round out the next tier.

What happened to Brendan Sorsby?

Brendan Sorsby will sit out the 2026 season. A June injunction briefly cleared him, but the NCAA denied his eligibility and he later dropped his lawsuit. He’s off the Heisman board.

Who won the 2025 Heisman Trophy?

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy in a landslide over Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Mendoza picked up 643 first-place votes to Pavia’s 189. Mendoza was selected No. 1 overall by the Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Who are the best non-QB Heisman bets?

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+300) and Miami WR Malachi Toney (+325) are the best non-quarterback bets on the 2026 Heisman board, both near the top of the field. Oregon State WR Jesse Legree (+4700) and Florida RB Jadan Baugh (+30000) are the next skill-position names on the board.

Has a freshman ever won the Heisman?

Only two freshmen have won the Heisman Trophy. Johnny Manziel (2012) was the first, as a redshirt freshman. Jameis Winston (2013) is the only true freshman ever to win the award.

When is the 2026 Heisman Trophy awarded?

The Heisman Trophy is awarded in December at the end of the regular season and conference championship games. The 2026 ceremony will take place in New York City in December 2026. Exact date and time will be announced closer to the event.

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Archived Heisman Trophy Odds:

• 2025
• 2024
• 2023
• 2022
• 2021
• 2020
• 2019
• 2018