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  • See the odds from open to close to win all the major awards at the 2021 Oscars
  • Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland  is the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture
  • Learn trends from past years of Academy Awards shows

The 93rd Academy Awards or Oscars are set for 2021, at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, LA. The graphs below track the futures odds to win the major categories by calculating the average from some of the top sportsbooks.

Best Picture Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Odds have increased for every film in the Best Picture category, apart from Nomadland. Chloe Zhao’s film’s average odds have shortened from -353 to -475.
  • [Mar 16]: With the official nominations revealed the list of contenders to win Best Picture have shortened. Nomadland  is still heavily favored with average odds at -353. Sound of Metal  is now listed in the odds as a longshot at +6600.
  • [Mar 12]Promising Young Woman has seen their average odds increase from +2000 to +2500, while Judas and the Black Messiah’s average odds shortened from +3300 to +3000.
  • [Feb 12]Nomadland is now the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture at -130. Nomadland  opened at +3300 odds.
  • [Nov 19]: Odds still favor Tenet as the favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars. However, Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland is listed as low as +215 at certain sportsbooks and saw its average odds shorten to +1758.
  • [Mar 30]: Opening odds favor Christopher Nolan’s upcoming thrilled Tenet at +800 just ahead of Dune starring Timothee Chalamet at +900.

Odds to Win Best Picture at 93rd Academy Awards

Movie Odds at DraftKings
Nomadland -500
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +650
Minari +1200
Promising Young Woman +1200
Mank +2500
Judas and the Black Messiah +2500
Sound of Metal +5000
The Father +8000

All odds as of Apr. 6

Past Best Picture Winners

Year Winner
2020 Parasite
2019 Green Book
2018 The Shape of Water
2017 Moonlight
2016 Spotlight
2015 Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
2014 12 Years a Slave

Best Director Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Zhao remains a -1000 favorite to win Best Director. However, Thomas Vinterberg’s average odds have significantly shortened from +2900 to +1400.
  • [Mar 16]: Chloe Zhao remains a huge favorite to win Best Director after the official nominations were revealed. Zhao’s average odds have shortened from -500 to -1100.
  • [Mar 12]: Promising Young Woman director Emerald Fennell’s average odds to win Best Director have shortened significantly from +4500 to +1600.
  • [Feb 12]: Chloe Zhao has taken over the Best Director category. Zhao’s average odds have shortened from +225 to -450 to win the Oscar.
  • [Nov 19]: David Fincher remains the favorite with average odds of +113, but Chloe Zhao is not far behind at +225
  • [Mar 30]: Listed as a strong -200 odds-on favorite, David Fincher’s Mank is the early favorite.

Odds to Win Best Director at 93rd Academy Awards

Director Odds
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland -1000
David Fincher – Mank +800
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari +1000
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman +1400
Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round +1400

Produced by Netflix, Mank, is an American biographical drama film about screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz, and his battles with director Orson Welles over screenplay credit for Citizen Kane.

Best Actor Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Chadwick Boseman’s average odds have increased from -3500 to -2500, but still remains a heavy favorite. Riz Ahmed’s average odds have shortened from +1200 to +1075.
  • [Mar 16]: Although it seems like Chadwick Boseman will be taking home the award for Best Actor at the 93rd Academy Awards, there are still other contenders. Anthony Hopkins is the second favorite at +750 odds.
  • [Mar 12]: Chadwick Boseman continues to receive praise for his magnificent performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Boseman’s average odds have shortened from -500 to -3500 with just over a month before the 93rd Academy Awards.
  • [Feb 12]: Chadwick Boseman has become a massive favorite to win Best Actor over the past few months. Boseman’s performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has propelled him from +850 to -500 odds.
  • [Nov 19]: Anthony Hopkins emerges as the favorite with +150 odds, while Tom Hanks trails him with average odds of +500 to win Best Actor at the Oscars.
  • [Mar 30]: There’s a four-way tie for opening favorite at 8-1 odds with Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, Robert Pattinson and Tom Hanks all starring in upcoming pictures.

Odds to Win Best Actor at 93rd Academy Awards

Actor Odds
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -2500
Anthony Hopkins – The Father +1000
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal +1400
Gary Oldman – Mank +2000
Steven Yeun – Minari +2500

Past Best Actor Winners

Year Winner Film
2020 Joaquin Phoenix Joker
2019 Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody
2018 Gary Oldman Darkest Hour
2017 Casey Affleck Manchester by the Sea
2016 Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant
2015 Eddie Redmayne The Theory of Everything
2014 Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Viola Davis has climbed back to the top in the odds to win Best Actress. For her performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Davis’ average odds have shortened from +950 to +205.
  • [Mar 16]: Andra Day now has the second shortest odds to win Best Actress. Her average odds sit at +375 to win the award.
  • [Mar 12]: Carey Mulligan is now the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress at the 93rd Academy Awards. Mulligan’s odds have shortened from +175 to -190.
  • [Feb 12]: Carey Mulligan’s performance in Promising Young Woman has be noticed by oddsmakers. Mulligan joins Viola Davis at the top of the odds list at +175.
  • [Nov 19]: Viola Davis remains the favorite with average odds of +315 to win Best Actress at the Oscars. Not far behind is Andra Day who starred in The United States vs. Billie Holiday at +500.
  • [Mar 30]: Opening favorites Viola Davis (5-1), Amy Adams (7-1) and Meryl Streep (8-1) are the early top three.

Odds to Win Best Actress at 93rd Academy Awards

Actress Odds
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman -112
 Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +225
Frances McDormand – Nomadland +450
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday +550
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman +1000

Past Best Actress Winners

Year Winner Film
2020 Renee Zellweger Judy
2019 Olivia Colman The Favourite
2018 Frances McDormand Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2017 Emma Stone La La Land
2016 Brie Larson Room
2015 Julianne Moore Still Alice
2014 Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Daniel Kaluuya’s average odds have skyrocketed to -1325 to win Best Supporting Actor, while Sacha Baren Cohen remains the second favorite at +800.
  • [Mar 16]: Daniel Kaluuya’s performance in Judas and the Black Messiah as Fred Hampton has landed him as the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the 93rd Academy Awards.

Odds to Win Best Supporting Actor at 93rd Academy Awards

Actor Odds
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah -1250
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of Chicago 7 +700
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami +1000
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal +1400
LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah +2500

Past Best Supporting Actor Winners

Year Winner Film
2020 Brad Pitt Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
2019 Mahershala Ali Green Book
2018 Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2017 Mahershala Ali Moonlight
2016 Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies
2015 J.K. Simmons Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Youn Yuh-Jung has taken a commanding lead in the Best Supporting Actress category as the odds-on favorite. Yuh-Jung’s average odds have shortened from +188 to -185.
  • [Mar 16]: It’s a tight race in the Best Supporting Actress category. Maria Bakalova’s average odds are at +188 and Youn Yuh-Jung average odds sit at +175.

Odds to Win Best Supporting Actress at 93rd Academy Awards

Actress Odds
Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari -200
 Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Movie Film +250
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy +550
Amanda Seyfried – Mank +900
Olivia Coleman – The Father +900

Past Best Supporting Actress Winners

Year Winner Film
2020 Laura Dern Marriage Story
2019 Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
2018 Allison Janney I, Tonya
2017 Viola Davis Fences
2016 Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl
2015 Patricia Arquette Boyhood

Best Original Screenplay Top Contenders

  • [Apr 6]: Promising Young Woman  is the favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at -220 average odds. The Trial of the Chicago 7  is a close second at +160 average odds.

Odds to Win Best Original Screenplay at 93rd Academy Awards

Actress Odds
Promising Young Woman -230
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +160
Minari +800
Judas and the Black Messiah +2500
Sound of Metal +2500

The Best Original Screenplay category is an award given to the best screenplay not based on previously published material. Parasite  won this award at the 92nd Academy Awards.


Archived Academy Awards odds: 2020, 2019

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With five years of sports journalism under his belt already, Ryan Sura may be young, but he is already making his mark. He has written for publications such as Fantasy Pros, SB Nation and TSN.ca, covering NFL, NBA, and college sports.