NFL Spread Betting: How to Bet the Spread in Football (Beginner-Friendly Guide)

It’s impossible to watch NFL games and not hear references to the spread, and that’s for good reason. Betting on the spread for NFL games is one of the most popular forms of betting in the world.

But what is the spread in NFL betting? In this guide, we’ll break down how to bet the spread in football, explain what it means to cover the spread, and share strategies to help you make smarter bets.

NFL Spread Betting Sections:

• What is the Point Spread in NFL Betting
• How Football Spread Betting Works
• How are NFL Point Spreads Set?
• Why Do NFL Betting Spreads Change During the Week?
• NFL Spread Betting Strategies
• NFL Spread Betting FAQ

What is the Point Spread in NFL Betting?

In spread betting, the favorite has to win by a certain number of points for the bettors who pick them to cash in. On the other hand, the underdog ‘gets’ points, meaning that bettors who back them will see a profit even if they lose, so long as it’s by less than the spread.

This is different than betting on moneyline odds, where you simply pick the winner of the game.

Take the Packers vs. Eagles game above. The Eagles are listed at -2.5, making them the favorite. They would need to win their game by 3 or more in order for an Eagles spread bet to win. If you bet on the Packers at +2.5, however, you would win the bet if they won the game or lost by 2 or fewer points.

Often, you will see a spread with a half-point attached to it (such as in the above example). This is called a hook (you’ve probably heard someone say they lost by the hook.) The hook ensures there will not be a push (a betting term for a tie). In the case of a push, most bookmakers will return the money wagered. However, it’s important to understand the terms and conditions at your sportsbook, as some will count a push as a loss.

Once you’ve signed up with one of these sportsbooks, you can also bet on other leagues such as the NBA, MLB, and NHL. If you’re only interested in the Super Bowl, for example, you can also check out our Super Bowl odds for a deeper look at some of the favorites for 2025.

Now that you’ve got the basics, let’s dive deeper into the world of NFL spread betting. In this article, we’ll be covering:

1.  How point spreads are set
2. Why the spread changes during the week
3. Betting strategies to win NFL point spread

How Football Spread Betting Works

Let’s stick with the Packers vs. Eagles example from above to look into some scenarios.

Betting on Favorites

Here are some scenarios outlining how your bet would fare if you bet on the favored Eagles at -2.5.

Betting on Underdogs

Now let’s switch over to a Packers +2.5 bet to see how that would do in different scenarios.

What is a Push?

A push is when the margin of victory in a game exactly matches the spread. When your bet is a push, you get your money back, but no winnings.

In the Packers vs. Eagles example, there cannot be a push, as the spread is 2.5, and teams cannot score half points. In the Ravens vs. Chiefs game, however, there can be, as the betting line is Chiefs -3.

If the Chiefs won that game by exactly three points, so 27-24 for example, it would be a push. This is why the half point is very important.

Watching Key Numbers for Football Spread Betting

One term you will likely hear or see tossed around when researching football betting spreads is a key number.

Key numbers in football betting are three (3) and seven (7), and less so 10 and multiples of seven (14, 21, 28, etc.). Any spread that comes in at three or seven, or within a half point of those numbers, is a big one, as games are very often decided by a field goal or a touchdown.

The difference between 2.5 and 3.5 in a football betting line is massive, because last-second field goals decide a lot of games. Same for 6.5 and 7.5.

The difference between 4.5 and 5.5, meanwhile, is much less significant. So, if you see a line move above or below those key numbers, know that it’s not just a random move. There’s either some injury news or a massive sharp bet that’s moving it.

How Are NFL Point Spreads Set?

Point spreads are designed to attract equal betting on both teams in a football game. The majority of NFL games (both AFC and NFC) have a perceived favorite, and without the addition of a spread, the bets would be one-sided. This is unprofitable for bookmakers unless the underdog wins.

The opening NFL spreads for each week are set shortly after the Sunday night wrap up. Week 1 of the NFL season is the exception, with the lines coming out well in advance of kickoff. When creating spreads, bookmakers are trying to read how the public perceives both the team and game in question. Obviously, some math, team stats, and storylines are involved, but this is all secondary to public perception.

Bookmakers are not gamblers. Instead of letting their money ride on one team, they are happy enough to collect the juice (or vig) on each game. When betting the spread, the odds for both teams are often -110. This means a bettor has to wager $110 to win $100. Therefore, if the money is evenly split, the bookmakers simply pay winners from the money collected from losers and pocket the remaining 10%.

Let’s use a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots (-7.5) as an example. We’ll assume the money is split evenly.

Let’s say a bookmaker takes 1,000 bets of $110 for New England to cover, and 1,000 bets of $110 for Kansas City to cover. Therefore, each bettor would win $100 if their team covers the spread, since the betting odds are -110 for each team.

• Money bet on New England = 1,000 x $110
  Money bet on New England = $110,000
• Money bet on Kansas City = 1,000 x $110
  Money bet on Kansas City = $110,000

Now let’s assume the Patriots win in blowout fashion well over the one touchdown needed, 42-7, covering the spread set by oddsmakers in Las Vegas. All 1,000 individuals who bet $110 on the Pats win $100, while the Chiefs supporters surrender their wager to the bookmaker.

• Money paid out to New England bettors: 1,000 x $100
  Money paid out to New England bettors: $100,000
• Money collected from Kansas City bettors: 1,000 x $110
  Money collected from Kansas City bettors: $110,000

After both exchanges, the bookmaker has turned a nice profit ($110,000 – $100,000 = $10,000). And remember, this is just one game. The best NFL betting apps are likely taking more than 1,000 bets on each game. That can result in hundreds of thousands in profits. And this is why bookmakers like to include a hook in the spread; a push results in no juice collected.

So, the next time you’re wondering how a bookmaker came up with the spread for a specific game, just take a good look in the mirror.

Why Do NFL Betting Spreads Change During the Week?

Now that you know how spreads are created, it should be fairly obvious why they change. Quite simply, a spread changes throughout the week if more money has been placed on one team. The bookmaker will alter the spread to encourage betting on the other team. This way, the money evens out, and they aren’t risking losses. Here’s another example to help out:

Let’s say Carolina’s starters look good during the first preseason game, and bettors flock to the Panthers (-4.5). The bookmakers’ first response may just be to adjust the spread odds to -120 for Carolina with even money for San Francisco (meaning bettors have to wager $120 to win $100 when betting Carolina, but only have to wager $100 to win $100 when betting San Francisco). However, if the money is too lopsided, the spread may increase to -5.5 or -6 for Carolina as point favorites, to encourage new bettors to start putting their money on the San Francisco 49ers.

Injuries also play a significant role in spread adjustments. Occasionally a spread may be withheld until injury reports are released. If a star player’s status is unknown, bookmakers will wait until news regarding that player is released. If a star player is ruled out at the last minute, bookmakers will change the spread immediately (knowing that savvy, attentive bettors will try to get their money down as quickly as possible, hoping to beat the line movement).

Whether it’s the NFL playoffs or regular season, catching favorable line movement is key to successful spread betting.

NFL Spread Betting Strategies

The heading is a little misleading. No formula ensures money (but when one does exist, you’ll find it here first). There are, however, strategies to maximize your chances of success when creating your bet slip.

First off, it’s important to understand that a game with two evenly matched NFL teams will often result in an opening 2.5-point spread in favor of the home team. The conventional wisdom is that home-field advantage is worth three points.

As discussed, public perception can and will change the opening spread between two evenly matched teams. This is especially true for popular teams like the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, or Green Bay Packers. Therefore, if you believe two teams are evenly matched and don’t see a 2.5-point spread, it’s something to investigate.

Last but not least, make sure you claim any promos from sportsbooks like BetMGM or FanDuel if you’re eligible before placing bets against the spread.

Advanced Strategies for Beating the Spread

Bankroll Management (Your Edge Multiplier)

• Set a bankroll and bet 1–2% per unit.
• Consider ½‑unit for longer‑odds angles; keep standard sides/totals at 1 unit.
• Resist doubling to “win it back”—variance is normal.

Line Shopping & Key Numbers

• Maintain accounts at multiple books.
• Focus on key numbers: 3 and 7 matter most in NFL scoring.
• A move from +3 to +3.5 or ‑2.5 to ‑3 is material to your ROI.

Simple Analytics That Pay Off

You don’t need to be a data scientist—just track a few efficiency metrics:

• DVOA (Defense‑adjusted Value Over Average): Team efficiency adjusted for opponent strength. Helpful to spot underrated or overrated teams relative to record.
• EPA/play (Expected Points Added per play): Measures play‑by‑play effectiveness; rising EPA trends can flag improving offenses or fading defenses.
• Success Rate: Consistency metric; teams with strong SR often sustain drives and cover more reliably than boom/bust offenses.

Use these to sanity‑check narratives. A team on a win streak with poor efficiency might be inflated in the market; a losing team with solid efficiency may be a buy‑low ATS.

Situational Angles (Used Sparingly)

• Rest & travel: Short weeks and cross‑country travel can matter at the margins.
• Look‑ahead/letdown: Emotional spots are real but don’t overrate them—confirm with data.
• Weather: High winds are the most impactful (passing/kicking).

Live Betting (If You Can Watch Closely)

• If your pre‑game favorite falls behind early but looks sharp on a down‑to‑down basis, live markets may offer better spreads.
• Confirm with real‑time indicators: yards/play, pressure rate, injury events.

NFL Against the Spread Key Factors

Below are some key considerations you should make before betting against the spread on NFL matchups:

Following the eight rules we’ve discussed doesn’t guarantee a payout. As Kevin Garnett so eloquently put it, “anything is possible.” But those considerations will increase the chances of beating the house. So, take that newfound knowledge of spread betting and give it the old college try (responsibly, of course). Make sure you’re strategizing any wager you make, even when you have a welcome offer like the ESPN BET promo code in hand.

NFL Spread Betting FAQ

Still have unanswered questions about NFL spread betting? We might be able to point you in the right direction below.

Looking for More Football Betting Knowledge?

The point spread is the most popular way to bet on football, but it’s only one of many options. Be sure to review the rest of the NFL content in our sport-specific betting advice section.

Check out the quick tips and tricks outlined in our beginner’s guide to betting on college football if you’re looking to expand your football betting portfolio beyond the professional gridiron, and enjoy the action this season!

Most major online sportsbooks such as DraftKings, bet365, and Fanatics all offer NFL spread betting options. To get started, all you need to do is a claim a football betting promo code at one of these sports betting sites or apps. The DraftKings promo code is excellent with a great welcome offer for new users. Using a Bet365 promo code will land you their juicy sign-up bonus and, if you want a little more wagering dollars, the 10-day No Sweat Bet offer you get with a Fanatics Sportsbook promo code is another great option.