Betting Trends vs Reality: Find Sports Betting Angles with Team Trends
Betting trends are a hot topic in the world of sports betting. But what is exactly is a betting trend? Should the average sports bettor pay attention to them? The truth is that betting trends are helpful tools for bettors, but only if you’re looking at the right ones.
This brief guide runs through the meaning of ‘betting trends’ as they are commonly understood and explains why you need to take a holistic approach to evaluate them. In particular, we’ll explain the value of team trends, a set of metrics you can easily track using SBD Sharp which is the best tool for finding the teams that are worth a wager each season.
What Are Betting Trends?
As it is most commonly understood, the term ‘betting trends’ is synonymous with public money; it refers to the volume of wagers placed on each side of a bet versus the other. In this definition, betting trends evaluate what the public thinks will happen in the course of a given sporting event. Prior to each NFL week, you can preview the latest NFL public betting trends.
Having this information is certainly useful when it comes time to handicap an upcoming event you hope to wager on. Understanding where the public money falls is crucial if you want to fade the public or chase steam, but it shouldn’t be the only metric you consider when looking for value at your sportsbook.
In fact, there are far more useful trends that every bettor needs to consider.
Focus on Team Trends
Patterns and past performances are very helpful in predicting the outcome of future events. When using trends to inform your betting strategy, you should focus on those related to a team’s historical return on investment.
Oftentimes, what the public thinks doesn’t really matter – the Buffalo Bills might not enjoy widespread public interest or support, but they were the most profitable NFL team to bet on during the 2018 season.
Paying attention to team trends rather than public betting trends will help you find these hidden goldmines.
What Are Team Trends?
Team betting trends evaluate performances in terms that relate directly to betting outcomes. Think: How did the Denver Broncos perform against the spread when playing on the road last season? How many times would I have won taking the over on the Red Sox last season?
You can slice and dice team betting trends many different ways, but the objective is always the same: identifying and analyzing metrics that tell you how much money you would have made betting on a team in the past, under certain conditions. If the conditions in your analysis of a team’s past performance match the conditions of the wager you’re considering, team betting trends can be a very helpful indicator.
It’s easy to think of these conditions in three separate buckets:
Team Betting Trends: Conditions to Consider
|Location||At Home vs Away|
|Odds||As Favorite vs Underdog|
|Type of Wager||Moneyline, Point Spread, or Totals|
You can choose to include as few or as many of these conditions in your trend analysis as you’d like. For example, if you wanted to evaluate the general betting value of the Miami Dolphins, you might choose to look at their record against the spread all season long.
If you were considering a more specific wager, such as the Dolphins’ chances of covering vs. a stronger Packers squad at Lambeau Field, you’d want to look at the Dolphins’ betting performance when playing on the road, as an underdog, against the spread.
Don’t fret if this all sounds a bit complicated. There’s a tool that can help everyone identify and compare these trends; no research required.
If you want to quickly analyze team betting trends, take a look at SBD Sharp.
How to Use Betting Trends: Pick Teams with SBD Sharp
SBD Sharp has already done the time-consuming work of evaluating the key trends for every team across all major sports. The tool is intended to help you treat sports betting more like sports investing by highlighting trends and tracking changes to each team’s value over time.
You’ll quickly grasp SBD Sharp if you are comfortable with the idea of using a consistent betting unit when you wager. At a high level, the tool shows how much money you would have won or lost betting on a team over the course of a season. The results can be filtered by the conditions outlined in the table above, allowing you to quickly compare the way teams have performed in particular scenarios.
And because the tool focuses on return on investment, it considers how odds affect potential payouts (illustrating why it doesn’t pay off to consistently bet favorites). This helps you quickly identify not only how well each team performs on the scoreboard, but also against your betting card.
Let’s say you simply wanted to figure out which NBA team offered the most value on the moneyline last season:
Clearly the Los Angeles Clippers offered the most value betting on straight-up game outcomes, even though their win-loss record was only 12th best in the league. But these sorts of surprising insights are just one element of what you can accomplish with SBD Sharp. By selecting the Clippers (or any other team from any other league), we can see exactly how they matured as an investment over the course of the season:
Toggling between the options of “home,” “away,” “favorite,” and “underdog” can provide quick visualizations of how each team has performed in specific scenarios. This is helpful when handicapping one game or series that’s similar in nature to past results.
As you can see from the graph above, SBD Sharp also allows you to find one team to consistently bet on all season. If you’re disciplined with your bankroll and want to pick teams like stocks, evaluate their season-long return on investment using the betting trends highlighted in SBD Sharp.
Looking for More Winning Sports Betting Strategies?
Betting trends are just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to creating a comprehensive sports betting strategy that works well for you.
Be sure to explore the rest of the articles in our section covering key strategic considerations for bettors, where you’ll find helpful advice for any sport you want to bet on.
Most importantly, remember to always wager within your limits. Even the sharpest betting trends can’t make up for irresponsible behavior.
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